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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Stock price up or down, to a certain extent, the distribution of chips by the Unit as well as the amount of money involved in the size of the decision. So, how to estimate the number of the main positions do? The author concluded the following three methods:
1, through the actual exploration, in determining the amount of the main positions can be traded through the real-time statistics to measure the internal and external disk, the formula one: Buy the amount of the main day = (outer plate × 1 / 2 + trays × 1 / 10) ÷ 2, then several days to accumulate. According to the author experience, turnover of at least 100% or more before they can stop tracking. The time normally taken with 60-120 trading days is appropriate. Because a main band of Jiancang cycle usually around 55 days. The formula needs to target individual stocks investor's daily take the trouble to statistical analysis, so that a smaller margin of error.
2, the bottom of the cycle, multiplied by the daily turnover of empirical parameters, you can roughly estimate the amount of the main positions. Formula 2: the main stage positions = total volume (see formula one condition) × (experience in valuation 1 / 3 or 1 / 4), as a precaution, can confirm that the lower positions, ie with 1 / 4 results.
3, individual stocks traded in the low appears active, high turnover, stock or not (standard-setting stage for the stock price rose less than 50%, preferably less than 30%) of stocks, usually the main Xihuo. Formula 3: Stock Liu Tongpan × (Stock turnover period of time - the same period broad market turnover) × valuation 1 / 3.
Finally, to ensure the accuracy of the calculation, the results of the above three formulas sum average, the final result is that the number of main positions. General formula: a precise volume of the main positions = (Formula 1 Formula 2 result + result + results of the formula 3) ÷ 3. Of course, in the calculation process, but also reference to the shareholders of the stock holdings, dynamic analysis.