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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
To accurately determine the market bottom of the mind must be a few quantitative indicators. How to be able to judge the market out of the bottom, I suggest that you points from the following detailed observation and analysis.
One to observe whether there is in the volume of production
Because the land there is to adjust the amount of precursor in place, indicating that short of energy close to failure. The right way to observe the amount of focus will be on the Shanghai market. I think that the Shanghai market in the amount of standards should be around 40 billion.
2, the two markets is to reach 10 billion turnover
After the emergence of land supply should be closely observed the daily turnover in the market is gradually picked up also if there is heavy volume. I believe that there are two criteria for heavy volume market turnover reached 100 billion yuan, because the two cities means that the market turnover of 10 billion yuan break again became active.
3, the two cities to maintain a continuous turnover of 10 billion three days
If the market really turned the corner, then the heavy volume is bound to be continuous. Therefore, transactions can not have non-equilibrium phenomena, that is, the next trading day after the heavy volume can not exceed 40% of the Su Liang. If Su Liang too fast, then showed little willingness to do more multi-firm, needed further observation. Therefore, turnover of the two markets can maintain a 10 billion for three consecutive days the meaning of this is it. When the Shanghai stock market turnover in a single day consecutive above 10 billion, then the short-term hot spots have been there, should pay close attention to changes in market trend, which is to analyze whether the tape out of the bottom of the most critical areas.
4, see if there are two hot plates appear
If the two consecutive market turnover remained at 10 billion, we should observe whether there are hot spots occur. I think that the market needs to be out of the bottom of the two hot plates, if the disk is only a hot plate will allow the broader market gained momentum less than sustained poor or limited impact. For example in July 2003 to enter the market adjustment, Tsinghua Tongfang, led by technology stocks as a hot plate was the only fast, but it simply did not produce the slightest impact on the market trend. While in November 2003 the beginning of a new round of Quotes emerged petrochemicals, iron and steel, nonferrous metals and other hot plate, the disk is also very active, and transactions continue to enlarge, the market rose ever higher.
5, the market appears at least one leading shares
If there appears to be pulling the leading stocks form a major breakthrough in the broader market, while the leading stocks always produce in the hot plate.
6, Zhou K-line stand firm 5-week moving average for two consecutive weeks
Example, in January 2003 or in November two-wave market, Zhou K lines of two consecutive weeks in the 5-week moving average. The July 16, 2004 Although the K line close to the 5-week moving average, but the July 23 closing Shiyou re-establish its breakdown, so Zhou K lines can not wear a 5-week moving average as a judge out of the bottom of the tape basis, we must stand firm two weeks.
Investors should pay attention to the above-mentioned elements combine analysis, are indispensable. For example: July 19, 2004 2 market a big bang, and the turnover of more than 10 billion for three consecutive days, but since there is no hot plate and the leading stocks appear weeks K-line does not take a firm 5-week moving average for two consecutive weeks. Thus, although the short-term big bang, but the market still no glimmer of hope.
