Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-04-23
Editor's Note:
Although the index peaked again and again high, but it seems increasingly difficult to make money, and some people will now market compared to 2000, when shareholders have a pet phrase is "make the index does not make money," which reminds me of a quick to forget the words - "a white elephant Quotes." How can I make money in the chicken ribs Quotes do? This issue is two invited guests name sectors in the Articles section area with outstanding performance, Southwest Securities Luo Li and Wei-Dong Cao and hearing information. It is noteworthy that two short-term expert to determine the market outlook, there are significant differences, but I believe that this does not prevent them from making money in the present market.
Trader say a Local bull market miracle Southwest Securities Luo Li
Broader market in August this year see the 1541 low point after the rally. Surprisingly, even the round rally also hit a new high, from the Shanghai index trend has been down a 45-degree angle upward crawl, the National Day, after briefly off track after the tape covering the rapid gapped gap, once again return to moderate its own run into the track.
Local reproduction of the bull market Quotes from the current round of essence, is a continuation of July Quotes adjustment is to "complement" the listing of ICBC to create a partial release bull market. Rely mainly on pre-financial sector and real estate driven plates and plates supplemented with 3G and digital TV theme of short-term, post-hot full bloom, but most stocks are stocks that were previously marginalized "revived", which is difficult to put it Quotes equate with a bull market. Comparing 2003 to 2004, similar to the blue-chip market, in line with the typical "28" rule, which is 20% of the shares moved up Alice as a whole broader market.
Experience, this constitutes a hot spot is difficult to rise out of the wave of a larger market, but it will not only continue the current round of Quotes climbed, also hit a new high, say that it is a miracle. However, this trend can be maintained for how long? ICBC has been released and is ready to market, when its mission fulfilled, whether it is the day of broad market peaked? For practical purposes, in the process of tracking individual stocks should also grasp the market's degree, the broader market trend will determine your position and structure. The current trend of view, personal view is that most of warehouses or warehouse to maintain and a half is better, a little short-term and out frequently.
Dialectical leading plate Financial stocks and real estate stocks led this round of the main plate Quotes, and their movements to a certain extent, about the broad market. Leader in financial stocks is China Merchants Bank, due to high H shares issued, so obviously driven by the A shares, while the issue and listing of ICBC will also make financial stocks have sufficient confidence in the strength. China Merchants Bank H shares PE, PB have higher valuation, A shares and their linkage, indicating that a domestic has to break the bank shares PE15 ~ 16-fold, PB2.2 times the valuation range for the valuation of financial stocks as a whole system is a a huge impact.
The future direction of financial stocks, there are two possibilities, first, China Merchants Bank opens A rise in the valuation of shares of banking stocks range, led other banks stocks side by side up, such as the recent Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, China Minsheng Bank, Huaxia Bank, Shenzhen Development so have a good compensatory growth performance. Can use them for PE and the PB values compared with the China Merchants Bank, it is easy to find short-term opportunities. Second, the valuation of China Merchants Bank has been overestimated, at this stage the issue and listing of ICBC the context of a speculative premium to obtain opportunities for future land safely in the bank, its price should be swinging back. Therefore, the current financial stocks should be Dialectical trend, in the disk to work harder on that if there is a clear sign of the head should be decisive lighten up. Of course, the rise in China Merchants Bank and Bank of stagflation, but also from another angle, the valuation of commercial banks an advantage over state-owned banks, we do not even rule out the commercial banks in the future will be out of the independent Bank of plate movements, and thus they are obviously more speculative than the value of state-owned banks.
Broader market started the current round of real estate stocks is one of the leaders, their trend is more complicated, the market is also relatively large differences. Pre-real estate stocks to real estate in the Government introduced a new policy after "the crime against the wind", and a big reason is that faster appreciation of the renminbi. Fourth quarter is expected such a sharp appreciation of the situation is more difficult continuous emergence of the expected appreciation is not strong, positive effect on the real estate section is limited. At this time, pre-New Deal role of the regulation of the real estate market will show, real estate industry, the New Deal impact mainly on three fronts: 1, curtailing demand. Through tools such as interest rates and taxes to curb excessive growth in demand. 2, inhibit the supply. 3, standardize the market order, stabilize the people's expectations. The medium to long term, it is obvious bad for the industry.
From the valuation point of view, real estate companies by market valuation should be carried out for its re-valuation of the assets of 5% ~ 15% discount in 2006 PE values in the 11 ~ 13-fold more reasonable. The valuation of property stocks in Hong Kong are low, big developers 9 ~ 11 times PE, 0.8 ~ 0.9 times the PB can be seen. Of course, since the threshold of increased competition, large brands more distinct competitive advantage in real estate companies, valuation can have a certain premium (10% or so). In short, high-quality real estate stocks in 2006 PE of 12.5 to 14.5 times more appropriate, PB is usually best not to run more than 2.5 times, 1.5 to 2 times more normal.
Why the real estate industry PE lower? Because the real estate developer in itself is no space in endogenous growth, profit growth was mainly dependent on the capital input. Profit growth is currently faster, simply because excessive growth of house prices. Therefore, when the real estate bubble, we must guard against the domestic stock market bubble.
From the view of the recent trend of real estate stocks, investment real estate obviously a lot stronger, and sometimes the trend is almost independent. Analyze the main reasons for the company's leasing business, the rapid development of a mature management experience, the type of property is complete, let the higher gross margins, and with a regional dominance. I believe that, in the real estate development company stagflation after the class will be broken down in the industry to provide choice, and now a listed company in the Pudong Jinqiao, Jinfeng Investment and other stocks of concern. Quotes real estate stocks as a leader in this round will not be easily weakened. Of course, if the trend to form clear head and a big bang, the proposed short-term closure.
Grasp the new shares "money cycle" For the plate in terms of new shares, it is easy to make money is a hot spot can easily lose money. IPO plate its inherent cycle of operation: high-opened high-walk - High Kaiping walk - Gaokaidizou - flat open Dizou - opened low - Dikaigaozou. IPO cycle phase determines whether investors can be involved in a profit. In general, the characteristics of the first cycle of high-opened high-walk there, it should be listed or sold shares, and the last one cycle Dikaigaozou appears that the purchase of new shares should be listed.
Regard to the specific new shares will have to careful analysis. In a number of new shares often occur 1-2 texture of the more prominent species, such as river deer island, Poly Real Estate, Jiangshan chemicals. After listing these new shares are often undervalued by the market short-term (zhangzi islands excluded), sometimes in each cycle has a chance to profit, such as river deer island unanimously optimistic about the listing, the listing price than expected, but the obvious signs of the unit disk to collect , turnover appropriate (60% ~ 80%), the cost of a clear position (62 yuan), so the stock does not rise is immune; another example, Poly Real Estate, the unit is listed at the beginning of new shares opened low cycle period, But the stock trend and other shares very different, independent strong, and then very close to the trend of Suning Appliance. Therefore, listing the date of intervention is a great time.
Plate for the new shares speculation, must pay attention to the emergence of anomalies, such as adverse economic strength, breaking IPO price on the first day or deviation from the mean of all these, investors can find "no risk" revenue opportunities.
In short, the recent hot market, Convert frequent, persistent poor, the operation more difficult, in the specific operation in mind: First, try not to chase, especially in some short-term or large stocks; second, there must be more clear arbitrage target. For example the secondary real estate stocks pulled up, do the financial stocks compensatory growth; the third, the index pulled up the process of gradually lighten up, as little as possible to open new stores; Fourth, look for stocks of long-term opportunities, such as CITIC Securities, agricultural and so on.
