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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
For many investors, fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and even chip analysis has in-depth study, but the final loss is still earn less, the most important factors are still unable to overcome the weaknesses of human nature, because investment is to control the emotions of the game.
Hailed as "the twentieth century witnesses the stock market," Master Costeaux Lenny speculation that the stock market, short-term Change 90% by psychological factors, the long-term the stock market is affected by the fundamentals. "Stock market psychology," the book says that emotion is not an investment in the process of supporting characters, but the protagonist; investment is to control the emotions of the game, would like to make money have to understand the rules of the game.
Wall Street's motto: "Fear and greed dominate the market." Indeed, many investors are aware of this truth, but has repeatedly made mistakes, repeatedly suffered heavy losses, that is impossible to escape the fear and greed to build a reincarnation; want to be Stock Ever Victorious Army, becoming a winner, beating its own weakness of human nature it is imperative to do homework.
Deficit earn less restricted by the weakness of human nature
32-year-old Wu Jinchi into the securities firm as a salesperson has been seven years, on a daily basis Zuogu Piao, yes he had chose to become a salesperson the biggest reason. In seven years, his efforts to delve into technical analysis, is also very carefully study the day a variety of research reports, financial newspapers, magazines, make friends more active efforts to inquire about the grapevine, so customer-facing, he can always tell the truth some . "Since that really understand the stock Wujin Chi every day in the ocean surf stock in early 2002 from the 3411 stock market rose more than 3000 points, I'm feeling very Shun once he has accumulated a net worth of more than 5 million yuan; but could not just leave , let him spit in the second half of 2002 another half-back. In early 2003 a friend told him that wins Chinese stock "because the color into the panel, the performance will be a great turning point in 2003 earnings per share soared from fifty cents to the Three or so. "eager Fan Ben, he followed in the study felt that there should be a pretty good chance, three more than the price of yuan in order to calculate the estimated price-earnings ratio is not high, while the technical side is also pretty good, and he be more than 2 million yuan of funds in the hands of the Ba Cheng, financing and bought 150 of the wins China; he wants as long as the two into a rose, you can earn 1 million yuan to come back to again when pressed into a stock and then make 2, 5 million can all come back.
Did not think the war in Iraq war clouds hanging over the stock market in 2003, remained in the doldrums after the Lunar New Year, wins China soon after he bought fell into one, and it would further loss of about half a million yuan; he wanted to come back as long as the stock price 1:00 a loss of a little less sold on the whole, did not expect that in March
Sheng Hua announced results than expected, thrown out a large number of investment trust holdings, stock prices fell to 20 yuan a moment to succeed, Wujin Chi suddenly a panic, the recovery of the securities company to make Pozaimeishao.
Sell surplus stock investors hold losses taboo
His head is full of just the stock If we continue to fall, he would have broke, debt-ridden, and even their jobs are threatened, and he only hoped that he had never bought the stock, then sell all the stock will fall into all of the year between the Wujin Chi's assets shrunk from 5 million yuan Jiucheng, leaving only 500,000 yuan.
Very familiar scenario, is it? For many investors, fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and even chip analysis has in-depth study, but the final loss is still earn less, the most important factors are still unable to overcome the weaknesses of human nature, so research investment psychology for many years, with a "stock market trap 88 "and well-known American clinical psychologist罗兰巴瑞克﹝ Roland Barach ?said that to understand the stock market, in addition to fundamental analysis and technical analysis of other, more important is to do psychoanalysis. However, even if the stock market psychology is so important, but Fang Jian explore these and only a few books, and almost all translations, very few conditions suitable for Taiwan's stock market psychology reference books.
Taiwanese investment in order to understand the behavior and psychology, Articles and Shih Hsin University, a professor of finance Guomin Hua GUO Nai-feng co-operation between the Taiwanese investor sentiment survey, based on investment losses psychological effects of selling surplus hold ?profitable to sell the stock , leaving the lock-stock ? snakebite effect ?more willing to buy the last to make money stock rather than buying money-losing stocks ? excessive self-confidence of several non-rational behavior, to design issues, Investigation and Analysis of Taiwan's investment to invest in the psychological and behavior. At the same time Sinorama also spoke with several senior sales staff to understand the actual investment behavior of customers, sorting out the Taiwan stock market investors often committed eight errors, and to invite experts to readers to find ways and avoid danger.
Investors often committed eight errors:
1. Pandie trend of the stock during the formation of not only courage to stop-loss, but bargain-hunting smoothing.
2. Only dare down bargain hunters, not up overweight, a strong stock price high but did not dare chase.
3. Has never been the money to buy their own shares, but not in the broader market by a multi-turn when the empty, often suffered badly.
4. Not set stop-loss or stop-loss but not fully implemented set, when the stock rose to heart when he stopped Lee points greed, an increase in profit stopping point; while stock prices fell when the stop-loss points, and also because not willing to lose money selling out of the abolition of stop-loss.
5. Not risen to the expected price will never sell.
6. The purpose is simply to buy stocks to have pleasure, or to prove their abilities, often easy road, or that they forgot an important discipline.
7. Because of gossip and certain companies to share placements, investment adviser, teacher ... but bought the stock, but the situation as expected they did not know stop-loss.
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8. Want to be able to quickly recover from a stock market-tech, but do not understand basic financial statements, do not understand line graph, there is no investment strategy, then hurriedly jumped into the stock market, and even expansion of financial leverage, the results of die faster.
Do not grasp the trend of the stock never been infatuated with
According to the survey, when investing in stocks, 57% of the profits in the stock market tend to sell stocks to stay stuck, but only 23.7% of people will be doing exactly the opposite; through cross-analysis, in the past three months, a strong will to do this movement of people, 16.3% loss, while the very people who will not do this action, only 9.4% of people lose money, earning more than 16% of people have 18.2%; show loss selling surplus holds this irrational behavior, the end loss is a big opportunity.
Such behavior is reflected in the short time that the trend of the stock Pandie formation, not only courage to stop-loss, but bargain-hunting smoothing; in bull, the only dare down bargain hunters, not up overweight, stock prices a record high, stocks that dare not chase two errors. Yong Sheng Wu Xiao Zhen pointed out that the investment adviser, analyst, the stock market and economy are often not synchronized, and the stock market is usually three to six months leading economies, because such a blind spot, so I often still very optimistic about the economic data, the market has already reversed a downward trend, from technical analysis, you can avoid the blind spot. On-line from the point of view, when the last one in each long wave length is effectively a low red below, at least, a continuous fall for five months, most will be down year and a half, never without exception, and if we have this phenomenon , in any case, we must all clearing; Thus, although the pattern of the current bull market is still prosperous, but if the effective index below 5560 points, while Taiwan's stock market bull pattern, unfortunately, will be transferred to short pattern.
Prudential Investment Trust of the Planning Department, Associate Zhao Yue-Feng pointed out that the average investment of whether the implementation of stop-loss action a very important indicator as to short-term, stock prices fell below on the 5th line is the first warning signal, but once the break on the 20th line of ?months Line ? or blasting a large number of important points such as below the neckline, and must not hang on, we must categorically clearing.
Short amendment to the Taiwan stock market in general are the two paragraphs down, there are examples of three-wave decline, Wu Xiao Zhen said that, after the two short wave or three waves of the amendment on the root of a long line of red appeared first after the long-term trend is the situation improves, from idling more than the beginning, when technical indicators can be bold in buying the passivation along on the 5th line to go up strong stocks.
Over-confidence is often the gutter capsize
The survey found that Taiwanese people have 30.26% equity ratio is very willing to buy stocks to make money last, the answer is also quite willing to 22.18% and, conversely, are very reluctant and less willing ratio were 5.15% and 11.09% . After cross-analysis, the answer is very reluctant to people earning 16 percent in the past three months, much higher than the average rate of more than show the operation of such anti-human and there is still a good chance of winning.
Zhao Yue-feng, and its investors to buy stocks they are familiar with, it is better according to the pulse of Taiwan stocks, timely cut into the various types of stocks, there may be a higher chance of winning. Statistics from Prudential Investment Trust since August 1995, Taiwan's stock market more easily in the first quarter of the fourth quarter rise in the second quarter and third quarter, finishing Zeyi majority, but because the industry, seasonal factors, certain types of stocks are particularly vulnerable to increases in some months Investors may refer to past experience, with the overall environment as well as the stock location and other information to make rational analysis instead of the above-mentioned non-rational behavior, the odds of up to seven Eighty per cent of.
Strict discipline to avoid the emotional fluctuations
The survey also showed that Taiwan people have 34.43% equity investment performance won the next three months, buy the market, 13.13% are not sure won broad market, but very confident that with a little confidence in the won market's ratio is only 7.99% and 19.25% . After cross-analysis, very interesting, the answer is not sure who lose 16% over the past three months significantly increased the rate to 29%, and the answer is highly confident person, there are 27.8% of people earned over the past three months, 16% more than a show of confidence in the investment psychology plays a very important role.
However, a senior salesperson pointed out that many experienced veterans, although very self-confident, but it still has not risen to the expected price of not guilty to get rid of the error, he cited a client, for example, twelve years, her mother is an investment in the stock market experience, from housewives to family, she has 40 yuan to buy a file share, set the 50 to sell, but the stock rose to 49 yuan is not up after going down, fall to 46 million shares up when she vowed to return to 49 must sell yuan.
Unexpectedly, the highest share price bounced back to 48 yuan will no longer do not increase, then dropped to 45 yuan, 48 yuan, however, her mother thought, no selling, the price still make a profit, The stock's fundamentals are still good, again, and so optimistic about it; so have been waiting for a higher price, whether on a shelf, but it has failed to file shares her mother's expectations, such as King, but continued to Pandie, until one day the cost of stock has fallen back to below, her mother was a rush to sell the stock.
Many people know that stop-loss of the important, but the implementation has often subject to fear, greed and luck psychological impact of failure to implement; In this regard, Wu Xiao Zhen pointed out that even if the technical analysis and then cooked, but it belongs to the psychological dimension of only rely on time to remind ourselves that broken legs, hands suspended in the stock market can also make a comeback, as long as a decapitated directly to graduate, but it is no longer difficult to stand up, especially the financing operations of people, but also to remember the terrible financial leverage, be sure to be set up stop-loss.
Kostolany in the "Confessions of a speculator," said that there was no stock market psychology, the stock market itself is a psychology, the stock market investment climate for the final analysis, but a consensus of the investing public just psychological. A stock market veteran, said to be the winner in the stock market, it must be to know ourselves and the effort. Friend, is to understand your investment personality shortcomings, and try to avoid; Zhibi, this is bad in the profitable after the incident, to know what the investing public was thinking, and sometimes to be contrarian for, and sometimes to the flow, while the long as it can comprehend when to flow, when to force yourself to be different, contrarian for the truth, to achieve arbitrary state, not far from the truth.
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