Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-01-28
Main points:
The fourth quarter of 2005, the overall investment strategy: the full attention of the consumer to upgrade conservation of natural resources has brought the two themes of the long-term investment opportunities in related sectors, concern about the Government in transportation, public facilities, safety facilities, greater investment will lead to investment opportunities, promising energy (renewable energy) and related technology and equipment, real estate, commercial distribution, highways, ports and airports and other transportation facilities, choose the investment-related industries have long-term investment value and stability of the fundamentals of good profit growth of listed companies.
First, rapid economic growth in the underlying structural changes.
The first three quarters of 2005, China's economy maintained rapid growth, but the growth of structure and composition has undergone major changes, manifested in: consumer demand, accounting for lower investment demand higher proportion of net export, accounting for the rapid increase in 2005. Excluding the contribution of net exports to GDP, the domestic economic growth is rapidly slowing down. Extensive mode of economic growth in the high energy consumption and high consumption of resources remains a serious problem.
China's rapid economic growth in investment is the major driving force in the composition of China's economic growth has been a long-term growth rate of investment than consumption growth, the investment proportion in the national economy increased every year. First half of 2005, the investment proportion and further increase to 48.79%, compared to 2004 significantly increased 6 percentage points.
Consumption (the government and the consumer) in the proportion of GDP has gone through a process of decline. From January to June this year, look at, consumption-GDP ratio from 2004 to 55.24% significantly decreased to 46.35%.
Net exports in the first half of 2005 the proportion of GDP, from 2004 to 1.93 percent surge to 4.86%, the highest in history. The main reason is the domestic market because of countries to strengthen macro-control of its demand is relatively stable, pre-investment brought about by too much too quickly turned to the supply of overseas markets, coupled with the expected appreciation of the renminbi, export import pushed back ahead of schedule, so bring a huge trade surplus. From January to September, the trade surplus amounted to 68.3 billion U.S. dollars, is two times more than the previous year, a great contribution to economic growth.
Exports remained at a strong level of 2005 is clearly not a sustainable, future global economic growth there is slow decline, while the yuan has appreciated slightly and will continue to rise, the Chinese government will take the initiative to reduce their trade surplus.
Record trade surplus reflected weak domestic demand. Net export in the first half of this year, driven by GDP 3% or so, after deducting contributions to this part of China's GDP growth rate in fact only about 6%, while the same period last year, the contribution of net exports to GDP is negative. This shows that the internal driving force for China's economic growth is declining.
Second, consumption and savings: a new concept of development under the investment theme.
Promote consumption, strengthening government spending and resource conservation is the driving force for China's economic growth to solve shortages and sustainable development issues in an important way, which constitutes the future for a long period of time the subject of China's economic development. Resource-saving and market mechanisms need to be taken, supplemented by the government to steer the settlement, the Government should continue to increase in infrastructure spending. The promotion of consumption through improving the social security system, raising the disposable income and promote consumption.
Resource conservation: the main reason for China's resource constraints, in addition to heavy and chemical industries characterized by rapid growth of investment, there is one important reason is that serious distortions in prices of domestic resources. My Government has fully recognized the high energy consumption, high pollution and low efficiency of the conditions on the dangers of China's sustained economic development, will take the price means, fiscal measures, financial means; industrial policy, investment policy, consumer policy, foreign trade policy, from a macro guidance and planning, scientific and technological progress and innovation, deepen reform, strengthen supervision and management, strengthening the legal system to speed up the building, and many plan to build a conservation-oriented social security and support system. In the fourth quarter will be implemented mainly a price-based instruments, and foreign trade policy. Second half of 2005 grain and food prices continued falling for the Government to promote the reform of resource products pricing mechanism has created very favorable conditions. Refined oil, water, electricity, natural gas, urban transport and other public utilities and services, goods, price adjustment will be progressively implemented. Similarly, the current huge trade surplus for the Government to adjust import and export product mix has created favorable conditions. The Government will strictly control high energy consumption, high pollution and resource exports, and elimination or reduction of import tariffs on similar products, and expand its imports. A total of 4 1 [2] [3] [4]
