Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-10-07
Source: Beijing Youth Daily
Week 4 ICBC, BOC intraday limit-hit, three-month-long hiatus of large cap blue chip restart ---
Current Guests: States Securities and Asset Management Research Director Wu; Meng, senior analyst at Galaxy Securities in Beijing; senior investors Ai ancient; senior investors and old Gu
Moderator: Wu Linlin
â–?heavyweight "resurrection" mean?
Q: This week three, Thursday in order to bank shares as represented by indicators of stock hair strength upside, quiet for three months large cap blue chips to re-start, heavyweight's "Resurrection" will what? Quotes is the beginning of a new round of broad market, or the last crazy?
Wu: The financial sector rose is different from the end of last year's "28" phenomenon is due to post-holiday market to tap two or three themes Unit, ultimately agreed with the valuation of banking stocks edge.
Although this year's overall performance of listed companies is also good, but compared with the international market, or there are some bubbles in the foam extrusion process, whether it exceeds the critical point will become a key factor. Tape whether the development of super-normal long-term exist? Obviously not, the market value of listed companies is a clear understanding of the process step by step, once the valuation has been exposed foam, tape will be suppressed, stock index futures may become a flashpoint.
The accumulation of financial stocks for so long, from the Thursday, Friday of the stock market point of view, the performance of financial stocks there will be opportunities, but with two, three themes stocks form a "seesaw" effect.
Meng Beijing: The heavyweights of the "resurrection" is not a "daily limit" the crazy scenes, do not shake the foundation of the market to do more, but not move up in the market when there were multiple as a tool to support the market up a up, to other stocks a rest time.
Ai ancient: that is caused by panic and riots. Index heavyweight up, other stocks will fall in the future will be like. 3000 at about the location of where to go or not is also down, even if down, it will pop up soon.
Old Gu: There is the main purpose of the operation, heavyweight driven up the "index" rose only fall, and only heavyweight plunged the broader market continues to adjust. Index does not go on, how is called adjusted? The heavyweight up is to "kill" small and medium stocks, only that they "kill" to stage the bottom of the chip will flee to the main pocket.
â–?heavyweight to lead the broader market take us very far?
Q: The launch of stock index futures are approaching it as a big blue-chip restart the reasons, but also suggested that the indicator shares book value, price-earnings ratio, and many other indicators are at record highs, cases, they Quotes difficult to sustain, do you think blue-chip how far will lead tape? Once the launch of stock index futures, the market will drop do?
Wu: I see large blue-chip drive of the stock market will not go too far, rising for three consecutive months last year, there will be no increase of space is limited.
But will the fall, we take a look around the market, the introduction of stock index futures, stock index premium on cash, most will be adjusted. Personally, I judge, such an adjustment in China, the opportunities are also high. But the stock index futures in
Country markets of the stock market has good long-term leading role, mainly to see in the second half of the stock market.
In spite of the impact of stock index futures to financial stocks will be represented by front-line blue chips shock, but the financial sector because of its solid growth, there are "in the package are not afraid of" phenomenon, while the introduction of stock index futures, second and third unit will be the subject the market sell-off of the main target.
Meng Jing: Financial stocks were also no limit-ah, so far from a strong start, Cheng Si be regarded as a strong rebound. The introduction of stock index futures will allow the market to crash depends on the specific point and, on the current market or a positive impact because the market is down to limited space.
Ai Ancient: would go far, I do not know. 3000 is a "signature at the bottom," is a very important area, can clearly say there is no room to fall below 3,000 points. In fact, the stock index futures and financial stocks gained nothing relationship, which is to facilitate the rise, but big money out of nothing, can temporarily be ignored.
Old Gu: Next week, large blue-chip of the stock market is over, I think, in accordance with the main force of the cyclical nature of the operation of the bank will not exceed a record high 6.79 yuan. As for the introduction of stock index futures, it has two sides, and a specific point and depends on the broader market, if it is at a high level, for example 4000 points, introduction of stock index futures, stocks will be risen to 5000 points; if it is 2600 points, the broader market fell to 2000 points will be . Market's operating mode is a way of thinking with the majority of people the opposite.
â–?Next week the market adjustment pressures are very large
Q: The Friday tape Suliang shock finishing, how do you look at next week's movement? The stock index futures before the launch of index shares to "grab chip" operations would be intensified do? How can small investors do?
Wu: Next week, the pressure to adjust the overall market is very large, it is possible unilateral drop of the stock market, the rapid drop in a single day, or may be 4% to 5%. Do not too much action suggested retail stocks should be the main lighten up.
Meng Jing: I do not agree with this point of view, I think, next week, the trend is still down the current 5-day moving average to climb slightly. Of course, after a 3,000-point swings are the norm. Now tape is already evident, and multi-ability to grasp the market is very strong.
Introduction of stock index futures, after all, there is no specific timetable, this time a lot of people as the reason for the rising financial stocks, in fact, is nothing but a pretext. Financial sector institutions to support the market has become the main tool for relatively large upward pressure on the market situation, what tape drive only, so next week, the overall financial stocks will rise depends on the market.
Should be noted that the financial stocks go up or down has begun to breakdown, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Bank and financial stocks, represented a major role in stabilizing the market, so they go up or down will depend on the market, "face"; and to China Merchants Bank and the Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, represented by the major commercial banks, of course, is to look at annual reports of the; while Ping An Insurance and China Life Insurance shares such a high price-earnings ratio will depend on the subject.
In the current circumstances, it is recommended that those who hold S stock "and clutching not move."
Ai ancient: There is no "grab chips", the main force in order to manipulate stock index, sooner or later go bankrupt. According to my experience, financial stocks will not be going up next week, I am personally optimistic about China Life Insurance. For individual investors, it is recommended people do not understand or a "holding not move," understand that people can be properly selected stock picking, it is best to avoid bank stocks.
Old Gu: Because the broader market this week with a new high next week, though not bad break, but it can also maintain the wide pattern of shocks. Suggest that you or the rest look.
The market this week, four impressive, broad-market index stocks as a whole out of the sharp rise in market, Bank of China, ICBC and other indicators of the impact of stock once daily limit, the index was once rushed to the 3200 points. Quiet for a three-month-old blue chip companies to re-start, in the end mean? Quotes is the beginning of a new round of broad market, or the last crazy?
