Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-07-11
Source: China Merchants Securities
First, market conditions perspectives
Broad market rally Monday out of the oscillation in the Chinese petrochemical Stock Quotes, driven by rising again heating up, real estate, petrochemical, timber, plate movements stronger, but the volume continued to shrink the rally would pose a constraint. Shanghai Composite Index closed 1682.20 points, up 17.68 points, or 1.06% on turnover of 20.05 billion yuan; Shenzhen component index closed 4229.49 points, up 41.43 points, or 0.99% on turnover of 13.04 billion yuan.
Broad market continues to rebound, a very important reason is that market rumors last week, the expected rate hike did not materialize to some extent, eased the pressure on the market. However, due to macro-regulation and expansion of new shares of the pressures still exist, the market's concerns about the center line adjustment is not lifted, rally support for the lack of volume. Short-term point of view, Su Liang is still likely to continue the trend of a rebound, but investors must be vigilant to keep the risk of changing disks.
We continue to recommend investors to exercise caution in the short-term the main position of the investors should take into account heavier rebound in the afternoon to seize the good opportunity to lighten up rallies. Also proposed to adjust the bargain-hunting investors to take advantage of market adjustments are adequate long-term investment value of high-quality varieties.
2, hot track
Real Estate section Monday to continue to have better performance, Vanke A suspension today, the company said a significant disclosure of information, news, the market's real estate section of the pursuit. Tianhong Baoye, Shenzhen Ye, Shahe and other second and third line property stocks were hit new highs recently, leading shares of Pudong Jinqiao, Financial Street, China Merchants such as the maintenance of oscillation higher trend. Short-term perspective, the real estate stocks will continue to be the main short-term rebound led the broader market forces, investors still concerned about the trend of leading shares and trends.
Chemical Plate-chang nine shares, Lutianhua, Liu-oriented, soda and other daily limit, except pulling up Sinopec, the chemical industry the recent coal chemical, dimethyl ether, and so the integration of alternative energy sources such as investment hotspots. Hot strength of this subdivision, means that investors must for a variety of industries have a more in-depth understanding of trends and analysis, it may be very good grasp of market opportunities.
Sinopec rising deserves special attention, if we can this strength could mean the end of the unit prior period adjustments Quotes, at least there is no downward pressure. Sinopec rising will allow broader market continues to rebound and even a new high as possible, it is the same trend of other large cap heavyweight greater impact.
Movements active in the early in Tianjin plate after a sharp correction in the recent poor performance, we believe that investors, in addition to the larger theme of the concept of bubbling hot ingredients to maintain caution, keeping in mind the risk of mid-year report performance results may be more of them difference in individual stock price caused by the impact of the proposed short-term bounce out of wait and see.
Closed-end funds to continue oscillating plate finishing, as a low-risk, stable income in defensive assets, the proposed robust investor can continue to hold or buy now worse resale values are still high in closed-end funds as a long-term asset allocation.
Third, strategy and operational recommendations for the
Although the broad market rally, but we adjusted Quotes expectations unchanged, the broader market rebound oscillation of the rallies just to provide investors with an opportunity to trim, we recommend investors to short-term or large, underperforming stocks rallies lighten up, lock profits. About 50% of the overall position to maintain the level of the structure of the main positions of consumer services to guard against the leading varieties of the main plate.
Midline point of view, since the beginning of the market that do not fall below the rising trend line (1510-1530 points on the card index range), then we can still adjust the strength of the market characteristics, the current round of reorganization is to provide investors with a very good quality to absorb a good opportunity for the stock. We continue to recommend investors to "consumption and services" as the main clue, grasp the food and beverage, finance and securities, real estate, advertising media, medicine and health, commerce department stores such as plates and long-term investment opportunities in leading varieties, while concerned about the "new energy / New Materials / major equipment / green "new economic blocks such as the short-term explosive opportunity.
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Recent IPO frequent cash assets can be actively involved in purchase of new shares.
Fourth, the potential varieties Comments
G Fuyao 600660
The current price / or: 8.28/0.91%
Recommended price: 8.24
Recommendation Date: 060,707
Recommended reason: Domestic layout complete, status as a leading firm; overseas OEM market expansion to make substantive progress; the expansion of upstream and downstream integration, achieved remarkable results; performance into the explosive growth. Company's strength is working with a world-class automotive glass business to move closer, at least for 16 times earnings. 06/07 forecast earnings per share were 0.65/0.78 yuan.
Recent Comments: short-term maintenance of strong oscillations, trends outperform, but in view of the risk of broader market adjustment, it is recommended that if price is 7.60 yuan broke out short-term stop-loss. Midline for 10 dollars target price unchanged.
G Thienthong 600.33 thousand
The current price / or: 6.57/2.5%
Recommended price: 6.33
Recommendation Date: 060,704
Recommended reason: to benefit from the TFT LCD industry developments as well as the growth of anti-jamming magnetic materials shipments, the company's magnetic core business in 2006 Q1 impressive start to the company as LCD TVs, LCD monitors the upstream industry, with the the downstream industry, the arrival of high growth is expected to enter the sustained and rapid growth.
Recent Comments: radical-type varieties, the market began to mid-level adjustment, short-term bargain-hunting in the high toss.
G on the Hong Kong 600018
The current price / or: 16.76/0.024%
Recommended price: 16.55
Recommendation Date: 060,619
Recommended reason: the market outlook is very limited downside, shares of companies on the Hong Kong-listed group to absorb the program, if implemented, would allow the current shareholders of joint-stock companies to be more than the original high-quality assets.
Recent Comments: less risk, the proposed robust investors bought around 16.5 yuan on the Hong Kong G, patiently waiting for swap program implementation.
G Erie 600,887
The current price / or: 21.65/0.96%
Recommended price: 20.00
Recommendation Date: 060.53 thousand
Recommended reason: The company is the industry's rapid integration of the winners, five five-fold, from 20 yuan to see this year's 100, even if the performance alone will not meet this growth, the valuation levels of the industry due to their oligopolistic position recognition is also to be seen to complement the high line. In the medium and long term bullish on the variety of circumstances, warrant the issuance of short-term catalyst for stock price upward. Erie warrants are being issued to add related materials, date of issue than originally expected to be delayed some, but as a catalyst for stock price is still worth looking forward to.
Recent Comments: defensive-type varieties, the market adjustment is a good opportunity to absorb the center line, proposed to continue holding or bargain hunting, short-term goal of 25.
5, Warrants Risk Warning
Baosteel Warrants (580000) and China Vanke put warrants (038,002) will expire at the end of August the right lines, maturity value is zero possibility of great speculation warrants customers should pay attention to the risks, it is recommended to use the current rally in the market out of is appropriate to avoid significant losses.
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