Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-09-18
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: Hong Kong stocks plunged by the impact of the overall index stocks continue to weaken, particularly in banking stocks callback intensity weights larger cities in the disk is also a much more intense shocks. Well, the stock market crash in the external circumstances, A shares can be an exception do?
Game Analysis
A) the main and policies of the Game:
Of the stock market in recent days, the big city, there are quite a dramatic shock, but Yao City can be repaired to some extent. However, the A shares and Hong Kong stocks of the linkage between them has become increasingly stronger. In the case of Hong Kong stocks plunge, A shares will do with linkage of this problem, several aspects need to know.
1) the two different backgrounds, the stock market: A stock taking cattle to support the many aspects of factors, one important point is that a stronger yuan. From the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center data show that the yuan central parity rate against the U.S. dollar once as follows: 1 U.S. dollar against 7.8402 yuan. In other words, since July 21 last year, since the yuan has achieved nearly a 5.3% appreciation rate. As the market expected the U.S. economy appears to be back next year, resulting in U.S. dollars will soon cut interest rates expected to result in the weakening U.S. dollar, coupled with the trade surplus and other factors, the pressure on appreciation of the RMB is still not small. On the other hand, with the yuan central parity rate against the U.S. dollar hit new high, dollar-linked Hong Kong dollars and Renminbi exchange rate has also been very close. If the public the same day to the bank with the RMB exchange Hong Kong dollars, 100 yuan can be exchanged for 101 Hong Kong dollars. In other words, the issue of the RMB appreciation, A shares and Hong Kong stocks is a certain advantage of the relative, which can support the A shares in the short term better than Hong Kong stocks.
On second thoughts, the Hang Seng Index has hit a record high, including the foreign stock market is also true, on the contrary A shares from a record high point of 2245 is still a certain distance. Since the gains are lagging behind Hong Kong stocks, the adjustment is less than the Hong Kong stocks also were normal. The most important thing is, the management the current market is a Ah Fu. After going through a major bear market for the newly restored market confidence, the management is very treasure. Therefore, management should not let panic A shares have plummeted to happen.
2) pre-"28" achieved a today's stability: perhaps by chance, perhaps the main force of the arrangements carefully to design the pre-"28" phenomenon, just become a tool for stabilizing the market today. A strong pre-selection of large blue-chip rapid callback, on the one hand, either too much on short-term gains to technical amendments to the trend, but also conform to the market correction is expected for later Quotes laid the foundation for sound development. On the other hand, in the "28" in decline tragic Bacheng stocks, in a recent launch of an oversold rally in stock index made up long after adjustment resulting from the power vacuum.
Currently Eighty per cent of the non-large blue-chip can still maintain the stability of major cities, but this situation can be maintained for how long? From the financial perspective, according to China Galaxy Securities Research Center data, in November or the end of the issue since the establishment of a southern blue-chip growth, Yinhua rich themes, Noam value growth of 12 new funds with a total issue size of 60.8 billion yuan. The above funds are equity funds, this also means that the stock market added a new more than 50 billion yuan of new capital. This is the beginning of this month, the second major new funds join the A shares, A shares absorption apparently remains undiminished.
Guangdong Development Fund just mentioned, visual comparison, the domestic large-cap stocks such as banking, steel and other basic than H shares of stock. From a technical trend analysis, the banks and other indicators of stocks through the recent days, after the rapid callback, the risk has been substantially released, sell into the energy has been great diminished. The other end of the large blue-chip Eighty per cent of the stocks showing flowers contend the situation, illustrating the market's atmosphere is still stable active. So, A shares in the case of underperformance of Hong Kong stocks should be able to maintain the pattern of strong shocks.
B) the main financial Game:
In front of the stock market, the mainstream funds to large blue-chip-style tactics that swept across the full attack, so the situation of large blue-chip broad based; but the mainstream of the funds are treated differently to the way the large blue-chip on the advance and retreat. For the strategic importance of the large blue-chip, they still keep buying locked chips; while some limited potential for a large blue-chip, it is took the other. Ever since, the main force of the advance and retreat movement is reflected in the index is high shock pattern. Note that the market has changed from large-cap stocks speculation enthusiasm spread to other stocks, such as the polar part of the oversold stocks rebound has already begun, Tianjin plate and 3G and other plates are also signs of capital inflows.
3) between the medium and small retail game:
The proposed goal orientation can be oversold bounce in blue chip stocks, for the short-term or excessive core blue chips, you can consider progressively lighten up.
Disk X-ray: is expected tomorrow will shock finishing, small yin at close.
The opportunity to plate is expected to: expected that the new accounting standards, concepts, Tianjin, the Ministry of plates are still better performance of the stocks.
Market Risk point: the valuation of the core blue-chip space is relatively reduced, attention out rallies.
Protection measures: It is recommended rallies to trim, proper control positions.
