Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-01-17
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: At present, the rise in blue chips should be regarded as the main push up popularity index and aggregation behavior, can effectively cover a larger market, or other hot spots. So, in that broader market led blue-chip index rose the same time, we should also pay attention to this side umbrella to cover up the true main hot spots.
We have in the previous article mentioned, in order to escort the issue of ICBC, institutions are likely to promote the broader market through the blue-chip to maintain market stability. Blue-chips, however, can only be seen as pushing up the main index and gather popular tool, and can effectively cover a larger market, or other hot spots. So, in that broader market led blue-chip index rose the same time, we should also pay attention to this side umbrella to cover up the true main hot spots.
A large blue-chip is a popular gathering and cover the main tools for the main hot spots
Leverage on the index futures and the double positive margin trading, the market is widely expected to blue chip companies will be able to become the new hot spots. Disk from the recent days, we indeed can see blue chip index rose undertaken to promote the key role. However, we believe that is a large blue-chip Quotes banner, is the main promoter of the uplink and aggregation index of popularity as a tool, but also the main cover for other hot spots to attract the market's attention a plate, it is difficult to become the largest primary or hot plate, to invest who speaks for the real value of somewhat less.
Reached this conclusion for two reasons: one, blue chip companies as a whole has become a hot plate The main argument is that margin trading and stock index futures. However, these two subjects are very difficult to substantive changes in the fundamentals of large blue-chip listed companies. Although due to the introduction of these two financial innovation will enhance the institutional configuration of such stocks, but it is step by step with the stock index futures, etc. to promote and achieve, is a long process, the key is to change the type of individual stocks active degrees short to medium term gains may be very limited.
2, in fact, now the biggest blue chip gains mainly China Petrochemical, Sinopec and China share reform is based on the price of such factors as the ideal to bring a substantial pulled hard to say it is the benefit from the index futures and margin trading of these two subjects.
Therefore, we believe that although the large blue-chip plates, etc., based on low valuations can be up there a certain extent, however, to support its speculation as fact, the fundamentals of subjects did not have much practical significance, the continued speculation and rising space in doubt. We judge the overall rise in the next section of this limited space, only the individual with other substantive subject matter of the individual stocks can continue to rise.
Second, at this stage Quotes should have the characteristics of the main hot spots
We believe that the main hot spots at this stage Quotes must first have good fundamentals, as well as imaginative themes. Starting from this year's big move of view, whether it is non-ferrous metals, M & A restructuring, defense industry and real estate, etc., or with solid fundamentals, such as non-ferrous metals, real estate, military, or the highly imaginative, such as merger and reorganization. In addition, often the real start of the early fall when the market is not the focus of attention (such as non-ferrous metals) or to have greater differences in this section (such as the pre-real estate section).
That is to say, as the most mainstream hotspots generally have two it is considered the most reliable: 1, fundamentals are good, imaginative subject matter, which is a minimum requirement. 2, not the market or the market for its attention to the differences large, institutional investors lift stocks will not fall into such a passive position to the retail Sedan Chair.
In fact, the speculation leading blue chip companies and can not get any of the above two in support.
Third, the next stage of the main hotspots in judgments
In our view, the following types of hot spots has become a hot opportunity for the main stage, but the situation is different:
A potential large hot plate
We believe that the fundamentals and subject matter from the imagination, the future of banking stocks, 3G may become a new mainstream hotspots.
Although bank shares or are no longer small, but its valuation is still not high; another of the most important is that its rapid growth with the industry, RMB appreciation, mixed business and many other subjects have the imagination, particularly in mixed business will be completely to change the bank's business model and price-earnings ratio position. The same time, the speculation of bank shares in large blue-chip cover plate, still did not receive the market attention.
Listed 3G equipment manufacturers this year subject to performance decline, the market performance in general, especially the individual performance of leading stocks. However, in 2007 the licensing of such stocks would be an irreversible change in the performance of growth rate, the size of 100 billion investment in 3G equipment categories listed company is undoubtedly a rare slice of the cake, which is the charm of the story where the 3G is actually 3G Class the performance of listed companies at the bottom of the predicament the contrary, low-cost intervention to provide investors with an excellent opportunity.
2, with maximum sustained hot spots
New energy and energy-saving environmental protection will be the best equipped to persistent hot spots, these two concepts will be throughout the Eleventh Five-Year plan, part of long-term growth market, super-star. In particular the development of new energy projects such as coal, oil change, industrialization prospects are very broad, but due to the need to wait for a long time to realize industrialization, the market does not reflect the true potential of these stocks.
3, there will be division within the hot plate
Pre-Olympic Games a big hit, as well as equipment manufacturing industry will be real estate division within. Growth rate from the industry point of view, these two industries still maintain a relatively high growth rate, but experienced a sharp pre-hype later, the whole plate up space will be subject to certain restrictions, but some individual stocks will continue to walk in the Industry The most front-end, coupled with the industry merger and reorganization, there will still be amazing gains.
In addition more than a few blocks can be classified as blue-chip concept, can be the name of the main blue-chip through the full speculation.
