Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-07-24
Source: China Merchants Securities Author: Jian-Jun Xiao
Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets rebounded sharply Wednesday to continue. Real estate, non-ferrous metals, automobiles and other short-term emergence of hot spots to promote the broader market continued to rise after the break point of 1600, the two cities also significantly larger volume. Short-term point of view, the rally may continue obviously, but how strong rebound effort, depending on the volume have combined to depend on the sustainability of hot spots.
Tuesday broader market decline stopped and rebound, thanks to a strong real estate section of the overall rise in appreciation of the RMB is expected to promote an important reason for real estate stocks higher. Clearly, these expectations will continue to strengthen, whether the continued strength in real estate stocks is essential. The Wednesday performance of the real estate stocks is not very satisfactory, with solid gains in the morning once the case is mainly ascribed to the real estate stocks have dropped out of the trend. If the strength of the real estate section can not be sustained, it means that yuan appreciation would hardly be the short-term factors such as positive factors in promoting the broader market higher, the sustainability of the rally have a problem. The same trend to judge the non-ferrous metals, automotive and other markets are also applicable to hot spots.
Non-ferrous metal plate from the point of view, Wednesday outstanding shares of the aluminum, cloud aluminum, clad aluminum, aluminum off daily limit, and other aluminum stocks also rose more than 5%, while the stock performance of non-ferrous metals other than aluminum is a lot less. On the current perspective of the industry boom, due to the macro-control to alleviate the problem of surplus production capacity, alumina prices continue to fall dramatically reduces the cost pressures, the sharp rebound in the performance of aluminum stock is worth waiting for. However, its pre-shock trend dependent on the overall impact of non-ferrous metal plate larger Wednesday rose to its industry rebound of the performance of growth and value enhancing positive factors such as the response, and aluminum stocks coming out of the relatively independent Quotes of the potential is there . But other non-ferrous metal stocks reflected in the short-term trend of more oversold bounce, the future trend is still hard to get rid of the international market fluctuations in metal prices constrained.
For the broader market, the short-term to continue to rebound favorable factors include: the suspension of issuance of new shares, stable through "small non-" high tide of funds after the surface is relatively well-off; after prior period adjustments, many plates and individual stock price significantly callback, short-term the conditions are out of the rally; markets rebounded sharply Tuesday showed that the market will do more short-term desire and energy, which also inspired the short-term investor enthusiasm. As long as the market still has the energy to tap the rebound, broader market will remain strong at least.
However, in the middle to adjust the expected market trend in the context of the leading investors for short-term rally should not be excessively optimistic, in addition to focusing on short-term sustainability of the various hot spots, investors should be concerned about the technical side of two factors: First, turnover the sustainability of the amount of amplification. Quotes in the near future, often when the broader market fell a big bang, a rebound Su Liang, trading volume and market trend in departure from the more; second is the trend in the Shanghai Composite index than on the short-term rebound may appear to be technically after the anti-Po Wei pumping, investors once again after the fall of Fan Chou must remain vigilant.
Simple point of view, the Shanghai Composite short-term rebound in the 20 and 30-day moving average resistance in the vicinity, investors should pay attention to the broader market in order to determine the short-term performance of specific operations. Needs to be stressed is that in the medium term there is no fundamental change in the pattern of adjustment before the market's short-term shock is difficult to grasp, only by adhering to a prudent investor band operation, in order to achieve good investment results. Short-term opportunity to grasp, it is recommended attention to two points: first, in the mid-year report disclosed last paragraph, grasp the performance of growth stocks of short-term opportunities; second concern for a variety of active and short-term market hot stocks oversold bounce opportunities.
