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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Ge Xiao Chuan-Liang Tai
After a long exploration and practice, we have found that "waves, waves, top, point, line, surface, shape, escape" technology is a core technology where the stock market. To master these techniques, the odds of increased investment is undoubtedly of great help.
How to measure the rise in stocks and index height
A general increase in the period from a stock form of five waves pose. Each wave from the point of origin to destination is a double, that is, a net increase of 100% shares. The theory is suitable for medium to long term investment, that is, the value of shareholdings based on experience for more than 68 trading days investors.
The first wave: Jiancang wave. Since the end of history, great start, lowest point in history as a starting point L0, the next height of 2L0. The second wave: Cost-wave. At this point there is a potential positive expectations, thus making forced their portfolios ahead of this time share prices have risen, Liangnengfangtai. Third Wave: pulled waves. A short time, benefits. Experience the value of average daily gain 2.5%. The fourth wave: Sasser. At this point in order to ship as the main purpose of the feature for long-term in 30% of the share price within the range of oscillation finishing. Time will be longer, so that short-term customers anxiously. 5th wave: ship waves. While the main tactic is pulled while shipping volume will be very lose big, it seems again like a wave. Such as turnover approaching 100%, may at any time diving, once broken into the 60-day moving average that a comprehensive long-term decline phase. Shares in the two-wave mid-point and three-wave when it is absolutely safe and fast profitable areas, suggest that investors generally do not participate in four or five waves of the stock, where a huge risk at any time may be stuck.
Cover their share of experience values: k = p/L0 �6.58, ie close to the value of the stock of the experience of all the clearance will be safe profitability, the risk is small (of which: P is the current stock price, L0 for the crash after the minimum share price). If k �2.38 as the best Jiancang opportunity, this time at the beginning of the second wave, Jiancang low cost, and higher speed, average daily increase of 2.5% or so. k �4.18, then should not be Jiancang.
Broad market index and stock-depth analysis of the callback method with the callback
Increase in the way the stock will always be a rest break every time will cause share prices drop, which we call the callback. Mastered the callback technology, the banker's pressure, vibration warehouse, shipping will be a clear picture of behavior.
Intraday callback. This is a strong callback method. In order to maintain upward trend, and to ensure that limited time to achieve the target gains, the bookmakers will be implemented disk pressure, showing a day in the stock perturbed, yin and yang, staggered, but ultimately stands on the 5th line, timid and are naturally eliminated out. Callback to complete the day in general.
Strong callback. Strong upward stock indicators serious departure from the 5 moving average, it will callback to amend the slope, K-line performance for long under the shadow line, finally closed in on the 5th line. Such shares Manniu walking, there is no patient who would abandon the pursuit of fast horses, but in time will find far greater than the short-term dark horse or increase the charm of a long cattle is continuing a long-term bullish, minor, just to go further. Adjust the time a good grasp of two yin-yang or a yin Sanyang a shape and amplitude are not substantial.
Vulnerable callback. Although individual stocks is good, but the broader market ineffective, but to drift along with the cut. But the general decline stopped in the 30th line, which is a strong bottom line, not below, the higher the climb line, the more cattle movements. After a break to watch empty, but if they can be optimistic about the timely recovery of lost territory, and the greater the fall, the higher the kinetic energy eruptions. Otherwise, regarded as the Ruoshi order. General sideways 3 to 5 days for the normal, extended sideways, and as a weakening of the need to recover with time.
Bound callback. Generally include one hundred percent rate of increase in the inevitable correction, straight up 50% of the necessary callback, breaking the previous head of the inevitable correction, a long time on the disc is not necessarily callback, the message inevitably bad callback, callback bound to deviate from the track and soccer on the roof, such as the inevitable price wave callback. In general the higher up and down the greater; up the more urgent, the callback sooner.
How to stock selection and reasonable scientific Jiancang
First of all, it is recommended to start from the external environment. The first tape is stable or firm up, stock is in a safe area, no crash aura; Second, individual stocks in the current hot plate or hot concept, in line with the value investment philosophy; third, news of no news or good news; Fourth, good fundamentals, No worries; 5 is in the middle of two or more waves, or in three waves starting point.
Second, grasp the right time to buy. In the parameters may wish to note the following points: 1, KDJ key indicators to see J, J �85 daily limit when the critical point; 2, pre-head, the highest price divided by the closing price the day of less than 10% for the limit-critical point; 3, BOLL channel expressed as shares in the midline between the previous trajectory, and showed upward trend; 4, Daily, weekly line, arranged on long lines have occurred; 5, confirm callback technology, the head end, and return to the starting point rally Department.
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Again, to determine Jiancang structure. Successful structure is "4352." Namely, the formation of a stock pond, generally have four stocks. Long-term one, position 30%; the center line 2, position a total of 50%; short-term one, position 20%. The structure set of security and stability in one, fast and efficient on the whole, the stability and flexibility in one that can attack can observe and control them.
Finally, to confirm ownership target. Short-term 15-day target to see 20% of the profits to be made; middle holding 38 trading days, targets net profit of 50%; long-term holding 68 trading days, targets net profit of 100%.
The main risk faced by equity investments and characteristics of
Most important feature equity investments is an investment risks, and therefore the risk of individual stocks is very important point of investigation, find the risk of points and do a good job against plans have become essential.
First, technical risks. This is cause for panic, because the visible, considered to be, and all midway callback, right in the long-term investors have no meaning, only to have an impact on short-term customers.
Second, the policy risks. If the central bank to raise interest rates to raise the deposit reserve fund of hedge liquidity and a series of austerity measures will generally lead to the stock market plunge. Although in recent years show the reverse, but with the increase the strength of the central bank regulation and control, which Das CIO will gradually be corrected. Investors should note that the general understanding of policy intentions, and so can only share the feast of China's economic development.
3 is a structural risk. If all the money concentrated in one stock or a plate, so the risk is relatively large. The results of risk concentration will inevitably lead to the risk of falls, can not be co-ordination and deployment of assets. We propose that the "4352" and positions the structure of asset allocation, decentralized investment risks.
Fourth, the stock market crash risk. This risk stems from the war, financial crisis or other natural disasters and other non-technical factors. The risk event, it will form a "domino" effect. "Nest, seems ridiculous eggs will survive", thus a need to take precautions.
Guard against the risk of equity investments Suggestions
First, we should always read the news, to develop a daily attention to state affairs, concern the world situation is a good habit. Constantly improve their own "understanding the policy, cognitive development, insight into the situation and grasp the go" capability.
Second, the long-term holdings with the top of a timely escape. Recommends careful study to escape the top technology, to accurately calculate the individual stocks and the broader market in the long-term high. Jiancang at the right price, the sustainable holdings do not move, decided a high degree of patience. Only long-term profit, may take the K-line is not broken 60 on-line non-clearance of the "rigidly adhering" strategy can be put in place clearance. Midline may take 30 days or until the surplus lines line of approach, once the break did not return the next day, then the clearance convertible.
Again, the top plate before and disk escape. Short-term action required to carefully study and do homework. Recommended constant concern around people, around things, clues to be able to get a glimpse broader market trends, details of the relationship between the success or failure. If it is found profitable investors face higher rates are large, enthusiasm for investments in high, difficult to open an account, to fund information such as household deposits appears difficult to believe that a few days is the advent of a plunge. And vice versa.
The current tape position and concerns of hot spots
At present the stock market at an important sensitive period, Europe and the United States near the top of the stock market, the Iranian nuclear issue, the East China Sea, there are many security issues are uncertain. Therefore, do not rule out the possibility of the outbreak of a global stock market crash.
From our current situation, China's stock market is still in two waves in the posterior segment, Shanghai A index of three-wave height is 5360 points, half-way point of the wave retracement is 3476.81, 3492.63 points, 3992.92 points, 4396.59 points. China's stock market upswing in the safety of foreign hot money is conducting a comprehensive Jiancang Chinese capital to promote China's stock market will usher in a steady rise in space, is expected to three-year long bull will be achieved.
Judging from the current short-term situation, the recent broad market continuously higher, and close to 3475 points to 3492 points of the wave index, I believe that the inevitable correction in place, and there will be about 20-30% of the callback depth. Lighten up the proposed 3475 operation, 3492 rest clearance.
From the current hot spot analysis, hot plates for banks, real estate, electricity, steel, oil and natural gas, transportation and restructuring plate. Hot spots are mainly state-controlled, the overall market, backdoor re-appreciation of Renminbi, independent innovation, technology and military concepts.
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