Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-10-05
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: Some investment experts have said that a good company is not equal to good stocks, and only when the low valuation of this good company is the real sense of the good stocks. Therefore, the current of our investors, a good grasp of the stock is important, but take the right approach Timing is also indispensable.
Game Analysis
A) the main and policies of the Game:
1) From the technical grasp the timing of the second half of the admission: Some investment experts have said that a good company is not equal to good stocks, and only when the low valuation of this good company is the real sense of the good stocks. Therefore, the current of our investors, a good grasp of the stock is important, but take the right approach Timing is also indispensable. Which Mody, how can we seize this opportunity to do.
The previous article in this column has done some statistical adjustments had a bull market, bull market large level adjustment of about 20%. If the June 19 start of the adjustment as the large level adjustment to understand, then this adjustment is not enough, the largest and only about 15%. However, considering the current markedly improved the proportion of large-cap stocks, and a considerable part of the decline in stocks has exceeded 20%, so this column that about 15% of the decline largely to large level adjustments are required, that is, 3500 points to 3600 points, the area should belong to adjust the bottom of the area.
In addition, the bull market time to adjust large level generally ranging from two months to six months, according to this calculation, the earliest the end of this adjustment should be around mid-August at the latest by the end of this year. From the current situation, the market there are several factors which need to digest. First, in August will likely set off the return of H shares and red chips tide, when the return of the number density of how much impact on the market, subject to further uncertainty. Second, the CPI will be released on the 19th of this month and other relevant macro data, according to forecast CPI growth is likely to exceed 4%, according to this indicator the central bank will take further control, pending further observation. Third, confidence in the market have been frustrated, take some time to recover. According to statistics, household savings deposits, the phenomenon of moving there in June a "slam the brakes", 1678 billion in capital flowed back to the bank.
To sum up, the market adjusted to the place early in September more likely. Specific trends, the big city will be on the touch near the end after the 4000 rebound, and then re-enter the adjustment of posture.
2) From the market point of view to grasp the second half of game time admission: The data show that in May a fund, QFII, insurance companies, represented by institutional money in the bank managed funds were A decline in stock market values have increased but the positions, accounting for the total in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets the proportion of the market value of the chain continued to decline slightly. Seen, institutions have holdings in the early part of high level positions in the vicinity. Just from the index point and point of view, institutions to offload the point position and the current point and major cities or less, thus approaching the driving force for corporate treasurers at this stage it is not strong.
From the game point of view, the current policy and financial side surfaces are not very optimistic about the market sentiment wait doctrinal, any sign of trouble, will likely cause the market to adjust. Important is that, with the retail boom cooling, institutions in the market gradually achieve a dominant position. Valuations are not low in the market circumstances, the agency have the ability to take advantage of market psychology to further suppress the pessimistic index, and thus be more cheaper chips.
The recent operation, the column that the most secure defense should be a variety of heavyweight, on the one hand is the heavyweight of the safety margin is relatively low, on the other hand the recent trend of market sentiment has heavyweight greater influence, the more recent rebound that heavyweight has played a key role.
B) the main financial Game:
Taking into account the index is at a relatively high level with the upcoming stock index futures and other factors, some of the main body throw some of the lucrative chips to lock in profits, or to shift the focus of configuration varieties of higher margin of safety, but the overall position has also been a relatively early stage decline. New funds, although some species have begun Jiancang, but the intensity Jiancang not. In general, agencies have taken while walking to see, The Hills view of the cautious strategy of fighting tiger. In the heavyweight competition, the agencies have begun a preliminary layout.
3) between the medium and small retail game:
Proposed to focus on the texture of a good investment in M & A unit, or a lower price-earnings ratio of second-line blue-chip. Is too large for short-term gains without the support of the substantive subject matter stocks could be considered to gradually lighten up.
Disk X-ray: a slight shock is expected to continue tomorrow.
The opportunity to plate is expected to: It is recommended to pay attention to blue-chip, to maintain a certain caution.
Market Risk points: short-term or excessive stocks, pay attention to out rallies.
Protection measures: proper control positions.
