Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-06-21
Policy Fellow with the Institute for Dialogue Shen 10000
Moderator Sally teacher's words:
Shenyin Wanguo Securities Research Institute has just completed the fourth quarter of A-share investment strategy report and put forward four quarter of 2005, the trend of A-share market is: a rebound fell ------ ------ re-up. The Institute Why is the formation of such knowledge?, On what basis? Views on the future market? Today, the shareholders schools Zhuanban and report writing, one of the Institute of Xu Yan ------ Shenyin carried out a Fan dialogue and exchange in the hope that investors understand the main arguments of the report to provide some facilities. Tentatively the author of the report of this and the exchange of investment strategy as a re-interpretation of the bar.
Xiao Zhang Teacher: A formation of four-quarter share investment strategy report before you have a strong focus on what factors? Quarterly reports and annual reports What is the difference between the focus?
Xu Yan: stock reform factors and performance factors, is that we share A strategy for the formation of four-quarter report focuses on two factors to consider.
Stock change factors, in May from the main factors influencing the market has been on the market supply and demand have a direct effect, and with shares of reform in full swing, will be four quarters to continue to have an important impact on the market.
The performance factor is our attention to the market's basic long-term drop-foot point, although the second half of the macro level influence on the market weakened, top-down asset choice is also difficult to increase, but the performance and long-term impact on market growth remains the basic pattern of the key factors.
On the four quarters in terms of a relatively short time interval, our quarterly report on the stock market impact of change factors, the more strengthened in this report constitutes an important analytical focus, which is concerned about the thematic issues and investment opportunities. A longer time horizon than the annual reports, annual report, we will consider more long-term factors, more emphasis on top-down macro-strategy of the industry's choice and then to logic, as well as medium and long term pattern of changes in market supply and demand.
Xiao Zhang Teacher: A share in the four-quarter investment strategy report, your are most vividly showed the trend of the four-quarter view of the market, you expect the market will rebound fell ------ ------ re-up . Many media have also been reproduced. As far as I know, the first time after the completion of the report, your so seminars and individual communication means, and including the Fund, including a number of institutional investors on the report of the exchange, at present to hear feedback What is this? Institutions agree with this opinion?
Xu Yan: Our strategy of carrying out four-quarter recommendation, the agency also conducted a questionnaire survey, as well as organizations come to visit.
143 copies of questionnaires from the agencies showed that 70% of the surveyed organizations endorsed four quarters A-share market will remain the pattern of 1000-1200 points box. In other words, institutions in the 3 end of the quarter the market bounced back to near 1200, or remain relatively cautious. However, the volatility of the market a specific pattern, the view will be different.
Change factors and performance shares fell factors, has also become accepted by most institutions in the four quarters of the two key factors that influence the market. Effect on the stock market reform carried out in advance of the reaction, the latter part of stock investors weakening the effectiveness of reform has also been a consensus, and over-reaction to some of the so-called high-share reform is expected to remain cautious stock.
In the performance level, investors generally agree that the continuation of the performance decline in growth trends; but for the latter part of economic development, institutional investors are most concerned about the differences is also the largest part. The pattern of economic decline slower than expected, later how it will evolve, economic inflection point when the emergence of institutional investors are more concerned about the issue.
Xiao Zhang Teacher: Strategy report, the analysis of the share reform occupied a certain length and weight, you specifically how to look at stock market trends change impact?
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