Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-03-01
Source: Beijing in the first place
After the hurricane, the market day in the sun: broader market was up three consecutive trading days, the Shanghai Composite up nearly 500 points, the largest (3404 points -3890 points), Shenzhengchengzhi more robust, the biggest increase over 2000 points ( 10652 points -12,696 points), an instant had recovered half of the lost ground. Quite a pity that the volume of the tie is not ideal, the two cities Thursday traded 273.5 billion yuan, less than the Shanghai stock market plunged last Wednesday deal. Rising for three days will be able to show that the market will recover and do continue to soar? What is a profit in which the opportunities?
The rally in full swing, but not Return of the King
The emergence of 100 points Thursday Changyang, mainly because of the past two days news of positive constant, such as to clarify the capital gains tax issues, the new fund rapid expansion of distribution, brokerage stocks to market faster and so on. From the disk point of view, the market has been further confidence to do more, the restoration of the two cities received only a hundred green, rose fell at home at home is far greater than the number of the number of individual stocks show that the broad based pattern, indicating the rally is in full swing.
In our view, this does not mean the market this will occur four, in May, as rising pattern of the rally while in full swing, but not Return of the King. This is mainly because:
First of all, the major economic powers are wary of the potential risks in global financial markets. Latest reports out recently held in South Africa a monetary policy forum, including the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet and the Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui indicated that in case the current favorable global economic environment in which a reversal in Investors should be prepared to meet the serious impact on the preparation, they are for investors generally underestimate the financial markets worried about the potential risks, which is unmistakably pointed out the possible risks of the global asset bubble. Recalling the eighties of last century along with markets around the appreciation of local currency securities bull market, with China Taiwan Province as an example, the emergence of the two "cut" big callback, there is one that is a result of globalization caused by the stock market crash. Have also had to prevent the domestic securities market.
Secondly, from the movement of the Index up analysis, 5, 10, short-term moving average has formed a U-turn down Sicha pattern, 30-day moving average near in 3960, up 4,000 points, followed by an integer is a barrier, the current index at the top of the pressure is still quite obvious, once ascribed to encounter resistance, do not rule out the broad market may be entering the second drop in the big Xiangxingzhengli pattern.
Third, the volume clearly not be appropriate. Volume continued to enlarge, indicating that more money enters the next disc. Thursday volume between the two cities is only 273.5 billion yuan, to further reduce the previous day, only the equivalent of a week ago when the Shanghai stock market plunged a large market turnover. The market in order not to break a long-time, on the launching of a strong bull market, do not release volume is impossible, the current market seems to reveal a pattern of gradual shrinking turnover trend.
Its major reshuffle to bring the two short-term arbitrage opportunities for middle Jiancang
-4,000 Points to 3400 points, the big shock interval major reshuffle, after the full poised after the second half of the re-launch a new high offensive, expected finishing time of no more than 1 month's time, this should be the most likely, the most realistic one kinds of movements.
Further analysis of the internal changes in the market. The Shanghai Composite Index back to 3900 points, although the area, but we observed that a considerable number of shares does not sync back to the price of this range. Shanghai stock market that day weighted average share price of 11.16 yuan, and early May of this point and the average share price close to 13 yuan, which means a considerable number of shares after this round of major reshuffle, the market bubble has been a certain degree of resolve. Further results showed that, although the index fell nearly 500 points points, then up, but quite a lot of stocks rebound height and did not exceed half of the fall.
From a different point of view, which means that, despite the index of the possible existence of repeated shocks, but it is part of the oversold stocks rebound will continue. We can see that disk on Thursday coal, real estate, non-ferrous metals led the plate to lead the index of a strong forward, a major force in heavyweight banking stocks have also experienced hair force plate to support the market, This led to Hongtugaoke, gold seeds wine, Dunhuang Seed Co. and other oversold stocks rebounded strongly, thus forming a broad based pattern of individual stocks. Therefore, we believe that as long as this pattern continues to set, most of the characteristics of oversold stocks will be broad based, will continue. It can be expected that those who fell four or five limit-board stocks, there are two limit-afternoon, the rally by more than 20% should be within reason, and we believe that short-term profiteering opportunity among them.
On the midline Jiancang opportunities, historical trends show that an annual movement of the Index in June is very sensitive to large fluctuations. Have a wave on the second half of each year up market, in June as the second half of the past and the time period is a good middle Jiancang period. For some courage in the broader market crash, when a new high-quality under adverse growth stocks, we believe that with the advent of the new fund issue and the semi-annual performance of high tide disclosure, in the second half will be a big white horse out in which surging. This is ahead of the layout of the big bull market index fund campaign, the current major Xipan opportunity to take advantage of broad market, but also a better Jiancang centerline timing, I believe that institutional investors will not miss.
