Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-10-04
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Part question in mind: the investor's trading behavior is the only factor that determine market trend, trading activity includes all the technical and fundamental information, all other factors that influence the market, such as the fundamentals, policies, news, technical through affect the investor's trading practices and indirectly influence the market. Investor's trading practices from the operational direction to divide a long behavior and short acts, from transaction to divide an institution the size of conduct and behavior of individual investors from the stock picking point of view of the different (fundamental stock pickers heavy achievements, technical stock picker re - potential) can be divided into investment behavior and speculative behavior (in fact all speculation, where the blue-chip stocks on the speculation called temporary investments, the speculation on the subject shares temporarily called speculation), from the investment philosophy can be divided into the different trends in behavior and arbitrage.
Today's market conditions: all-time high near the long-short attitude both prudent and within a narrow range all day Shanghai and Shenzhen, the Shanghai Composite Index dropping as 4304 points, the lowest early in the afternoon up on the touch 4371 points Zhongpan to close at 4346 points, compared with the previous one trading day up 22 points on the formation of the upper and lower k-line short film doji. The two cities a total turnover of 210 billion, a slight increase in volume compared with the previous day. City of shares soon changed its name to the news, Haitong Securities brokerage stocks surged more than just limit-equity shares of brokerage subjects.
Long behavior perspective: facing the broader market early today, the head, long more cautious behavior, although the brokerage to become intraday hot plate, for Quotes stimulus, but the plate a small number of stocks, thus the influence of Quotes and real estate, energy and electric power plate can not be in the same breath. In addition to brokerage stocks intraday there is no other sections outside the hot-spot effect, with consecutive days of sector rotation and effects come to an end long obviously affected the enthusiasm is not high. Large cumulative rise in the short term circumstances, the bull chasing the high enthusiasm weakened, but also one of the reasons weak shot up Thursday. If Friday does not produce influential plate hot spots, do more long passion continue to weaken, is not conducive to big city up.
Short behavior perspective: short main contingent is still big gainers and plate in the short-term arbitrage traders. Thursday real estate stocks, financial stocks trading hours of the morning finishing paragraph in a weak position in the afternoon and gradually stronger real estate stocks, the plates are signs of the end of the short-term adjustment, so Friday will lose an important short-suppressed objects. If the short financial stocks Friday continued to pressure can be suppressed by the space is not large, short will the pressure to find new targets, steel plates, energy, power plate may be a new short to suppress the object.
Organizational behavior perspective: institutional Jiancang and Masukura detonated the round market, as a pioneer Quotes, rose in a number of trading days, the agency to do more short-term interest waning. In some big gainers such as banks, real estate stocks in the previous two trading days of the institutions has already begun a planned short-term arbitrage unwinding, the disk can be seen in China Life, Ping An of China, Industrial Bank and part of the real estate shares fall. It should be noted that the agency aims to sell some chips just to sell high, buy low share of the cost of a low stake is not strategic lighten up, based on the concept of long-term bullish market, high-throw there must be low after the closing out of its action, Therefore, the agency's blue-chip Shigekura there will be little room for further declines. Agencies lighten up the action come to an end? When did you start covering? This is an ebb and flow of the big city problems. Agencies lighten up and covering will affect the big city of Change, the market Change in turn affect the institutions to judge the market, thereby affecting the actions of its neutral position. This is a dynamic process of mutual influence, its complexity is also high so George Soros have made only "two-way reflex theory" concept does not provide effective solutions. From a static point of view is relatively easy to institutional investors in the present relatively high on the short-term arbitrage transactions tend to make rational.
Individual behavior perspective: the previous four trading days accumulated large city or a larger volume is rapidly enlarge take it for granted those who may think that short positions, or Qingcang Masukura in the rapidly within a few days. Nevertheless, taking a number of major financial class site survey found that, until yesterday's round in the Quotes in the proportion of retail positions simply did not change much, the average positions is still more than 60%, and early in July to 60% of only slightly compared to positions Masukura. At the same time, the institutions, especially the newly established fund Masukura substantially during this period, becoming a pioneer Quotes, retail suspicion once again missed a large section in the market, cases of licensing to become the slowest learners.
Round Quotes are rarely involved in the development of small investors so far? I would like to express the meaning of course not the case. Ta Kong is a holistic retail concept, in fact, the heat from the disk look at a lot of retail transactions are involved, the chase sell into the retail sector rotation and boost the market, just that, chase sell into offset each other, small investors not increase the overall positions. The general lack of institutional investors, individual investors have a large city, a sense of direction, there is no city, according to a position towards the awareness of active control is the only reason Takong Quotes. In this paper, this issue, stressed the active control to see the big city and the importance of positions, hoping to want to help investors make money in this market.
We can imagine that after a period of time Quotes interpretation process: the foresight of institutional investors as the major city of gradually increasing short intensity rose, while the slow response of the retail group from the early stage of development of the look Quotes unclear direction, to Quotes Development has to do more when the hot spot gradually rising, with the further development of Quotes by small investors to do more enthusiasm has finally been ignited, retail back into the body, and the prices shot up drop form a short-head.
Conclusion: The position survey, retail groups in the current round of Quotes in small changes in positions, once again become the slowest learners, Ta Kong since the July 5 big move. As the retail groups, only 60% of the total positions apart from the stock market, relatively abundant capital, incremental funding stream of new accounts, stock and incremental funding is the material basis for the market outlook continues to rise. Quotes come today, just a short, afternoon plate and stocks the opportunity to continue after picking individual stocks, choose the right time profit opportunities will be better than the previous.
The opportunity at hand, but the big city, short-term rate of increase, even in some intraday Stock Quotes about to come to an end, there are a number of shares advance of the performance of stocks, a group of operating conditions bleak report was released in the medium term will see the light dead stocks, pre broad based, the market outlook was mixed stocks is inevitable. How to avoid invisible "mines", how to choose an appropriate time to intervene, neither the recovery in the Peak, not Ta Kong, is a challenging thing, five trading days, after rising 400 points today, to do This is a good thing, particularly not easy. Concerned about the Bandung investment networks, concerned about the column will be able to get what you want to help.
