Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-07-04
Guests wonderful views summary
This year's market in general good, but the volatility will increase
"Three to change one" A shares is likely to give a surprise
Excellent long-term holders of the fund is the best option
Long-term perspective, buying the old fund and buy a new fund, sub-result of the new fund is not very different
Have enough vision and anyone, in order to enjoy the benefits long-term investment fund Moderator: Shanghai Securities News Zhang Yongjun
Interviews with guests: Mr. Song Sanjiang, the current Fortune SGAM Fund Management Co., Ltd. Marketing Director. Served as president of China Construction Bank, Shenzhen Branch, Dapeng Securities Co., Ltd., Senior Manager, Asset Management, Fortune SGAM Fund Management Co., vice president of marketing.
Moderator: First, we would like to ask Mr. Soong, we talked about the shock the bull market, whether this is a Fortune SGAM is a basic right to determine the current market?
Song Sanjiang: shock bull market is when we determine the theme of this exchange is a basic judgments. Shocks with two words to describe the bull market, then, that is, the overall market this year is promising, but volatility will increase. In other words, the strategy is to contempt of this index, but the tactics is to attach importance to the index.
The reason why the strategic, to contempt this index, I sum up should be out of the "three to change one" reason. In 2007, the first one is the stock reform this year, that would be completed. The second is the exchange rate reform, and the third is the tax reform was adopted by the NPC. In the next two or three years time, we believe that these three reforms would simultaneously role in the micro-surface will enhance the level of corporate earnings, so that A-share market fundamentals to get a good support. The macro level, the money market situation of excess liquidity in the short term is difficult to change, will further promote the indexes higher. In such cases, although we think that the Shanghai index has more than 3200 points, is already high, but after a year later, we may find that 3200 was a low point. Of course, we do find it difficult to accurately predict the market. However, we feel that, "from three years to one" is likely to give A share of surprises.
Moderator: So the "tactical attention should be paid on the Index" What is the meaning of it?
Song Sanjiang: Tactical attention should be paid on the index, the index rose to say the future is likely to be completed is in the form of shocks. Incentives may have three shocks. The first point is that in the foreseeable future stock index futures will be introduced. From international experience, the stock index futures short-term shocks will increase. The second point is much higher than A shares H shares, we can not know that international investors underestimated the A shares, or domestic A share investors overestimated. But if the stock index futures market, the situation appeared on a large number of short words, A shares and H shares also provide the difference between the short reason. After the third point is to change the size of the non-stock holdings, we believe that shares the interests of shareholders to change the size to play a coordinated role in joint-stock advantage. But we must also be careful in the face of stock has risen 100% or more of the situation, at any time there may be a variety of holdings act, does not exclude those of non-tradable shareholders of the reduction occurs when some non-rational behavior. This will result in the trend away from individual stocks fundamentals support. We can not anticipate the process of shocks is to take up a few waves of several waves, so investors should still remain cautious.
Moderator: In the shock pattern of the bull market, investors should take how kind of investment fund strategy?
Song Sanjiang: In fact, whether it is in a bull or bear market, whether it is unilateral or shock the bull market bull market, I tend to make money in this argument --- the preferred investment funds, stock funds are boundless sea shore. No matter what the market, the long-term holders of outstanding funds are the best option. Have a personal experience of statistical data is very traumatic. If an individual Zuo Gupiao investments, long-term result is that 721 of the result is 70% of people lose money over the long term, and 20% of it is not loss, no gain, only 10% of people are making money. I think in shock result of the bull market where individual investors, is also such a pattern, but also subtle and underhanded bull market turbulence, it is because individuals are more vulnerable to the impact of repeated shocks inside the bull market, while the value of individuals more difficult to judge whether an enterprise. Bull market where the individual in shock more likely to be sacrificed, it is human weakness and limitations of his own personal knowledge so dictates, there is no way to do.
I think the bull market in the shock where the best approach is through investment funds into funds of this group army inside one, so that funds and other investors to back you made the game proceeds.
Moderator: There are investors to ask, what types of funds may be more opportunity to make money in a bull market volatility?
Song Sanjiang: First, I naturally look with the new fund and the old fund choice. I have a word called bull market shocks, preferred times of new funds. The new fund has no stock position, once the fund managers in the shock Li Jiancang timing errors in the back will be more passive. As the saying goes, a good beginning is half way to success, the fund manager's job as well. Therefore, if we are now rushing to snap up a new fund because cheaper is not necessarily a good thing.
Old funds also have their own problems. The fund is now mostly full of old warehouses. Once the market turbulence, when the old will at one stroke and then drop the Fund's net quite a lot will let you set very distressed. If you Jipatakong afraid stuck, then I suggest you buy a "second new funds" is the stock position is not high not low variety. Example, has just completed a sustained marketing or split funds. The so-called fund split, that is, the original example of a net is more than two money funds, after the split of the net value of 1 yuan is several points of the fund.
Times there is a part of the new fund at the end of storage, the new funds come in to enjoy it after the original position growth. When the market fell, sub-fund positions the new fund is so unlike the old, falling will be less. Compared to what, I think this is a good choice, but it is hard to say is not the best choice. Because in the long term, to buy the old fund and buy a new fund, sub-not very different from the results of the new fund. Sometimes the short-term looks good choice in the long run may not necessarily well, this situation often occurs in the investment field.
Moderator: Many people know to do long-term investment funds, but it seems that the process of doing is not easy, mainly because the volatility of the market for our psychological an impact do you think how long-term investment fund? How can we waver, has been held?
Song Sanjiang: we must first understand the long-term holders of outstanding Fund and the operation of the Fund's results of band exactly how different. In 1965 to 2005 in 41 years time, "Warren" Buffett management of the Fund's assets an average annual rate of 21.5%. Accordance with the compound interest calculation, if the initial 1 million yuan Investment, with a continuous 41 years to obtain 21.5% return, you have total wealth will reach 29.3513 million yuan. If the action taken by band approach to invest in equity funds, can be simplified band operate one of the most simple form, that is, 41 years, there are 21 years to hold equity funds, while the rest of the 20-year cash. Operations through the band can be assumed to hold equity funds to achieve an annual yield of 30% per year, which is equivalent to the average annual income Buffett 150%, should be fairly optimistic assumption. At the same time, we assume an annual cash yield of 2% (this is already far more than the current bank account 0.72% interest rate). Well, according to compound terms, 41 years later, you 1 million investment can only become 3.6812 million yuan. Clearly, if the band operating fund, you can get the original wealth of 29.3413 million yuan into 3.6712 million yuan. This is close to 8:1 contrast inside. This phenomenon is a universal law of investment funds, but also a result of compound growth. If there is no vision, there is not enough for anyone, it is difficult to enjoy long-term investment fund returns.
