Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-06-25
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: From the statistical data, the two cities daily limit more than 40 stocks, Hu Zhi biggest decline in nearly 7%; while Shen Chengzhi the biggest lower limit is also more than 7%; In general, although this decline was weaker than in February 27, a rare slump, but still claim to be a mini-crash. So, how should we understand it today's crash.
Game Analysis
A) the main and policies of the Game:
1) How do you view this one-day drop: from March 19 with the big city, all the way up, the largest increase of up to 22%, the two cities of the strong hand the amount of direct teaching fund manager shouted: can not understand it really is not made by the bull market top. Or a coincidence, the same month on the 19th, the market recorded a strong diving to the end of a month-long bull market frenzy.
From the statistical data, the two cities daily limit more than 40 stocks, Hu Zhi biggest decline in nearly 7%; while Shen Chengzhi the biggest lower limit is also more than 7%; In general, although this decline was weaker than February 27 a rare crash, but still claim to be a mini-crash. So, how should we understand it today's crash.
First of all, the main trigger of this crash is about to announce a quarterly macro data. According to the experts predict that a quarter of GDP growth of more than 11%, while the CPI data will be more than 3% of the cordon. In general, the macroeconomic side heat will lead to the central bank to take further tightening policies, such as raising the reserve ratio, or raising interest rates. But the question now is, in front of several Dikaigaozou precedents have shown, raising the reserve ratio or interest rates do not impede the pace of the bull market. Well, today the market overreaction is not a do a little bit unusual. This column that the market mainly due to the impact of published data rescheduled, due to management's rare to modify the release time, the market doubts the seriousness of the situation, resulting in excessive reaction. In fact, this also confirms that people believe in a saying: easy to block out the gun, stab in the back very difficult to prevent.
Second, today's plunge and the current round of Quotes on the participation of the main body. Statistics show that the first quarter of this year, the fund is to lighten the tone dominated the contrary, in the first quarter of retail investors flocking. In other words, to retail, private, size, and other non-capital has become a key driver for this round of rally. Because these funds have a speculative, short-term investments, unstable characteristics, so that any sign of trouble is very likely contributed to their overreaction.
2) afternoon recommended strategy: In the afternoon operation, we have only a correct understanding of the current situation, in order to make the right strategy. First, the capital city of the support that we are faced with. According to statistics, last 4 days the number of new accounts more than 05 year's increase in numbers, from this point of the phenomenon is not difficult to see the enthusiasm that people invest in stocks and how high. This column believes that all the people of the grand stocks will not only Ge, however, in fact, the February 27 market plunge, have inspired the enthusiasm of people. In addition, the size of the non-lifting of the ban is currently the peak raised the cash in the game has only just begun, it should not be over. In general, funds should face the market can still support a strong pattern.
Secondly, the management of the current market attitudes. Recalling the recent period of time, although the big city up a lot, but the management seems to have maintained the attitude of silence is golden, and 300 points, which prompts the risk of frequent near the style is completely different. In a sense, the management seems to be tacit approval of the current bull market. If this analysis is valid, the management why the release of macroeconomic data on the move shut it. This column that, in this round of Quotes, the market's mainstay, namely, large blue-chip and second-line blue-chip rise is limited, which is an objective to ensure a large city as a whole is still a reasonable pattern. However, the cap, lower the speculation has gone too far to Newcastle. Therefore, the management begins with the psychological pressure to the market, hoping to quell speculation of the wind, but not so big city, the stability of the injured.
View of the above two points, this column believes that investors need to note that there is no real support for the individual stocks to avoid speculation, but it need not be overly pessimistic, as long as the proper control positions and adjust the investment products can be.
B) the main financial Game:
Taking into account the index is at a relatively high level with the upcoming stock index futures and other factors, some of the main body throw some of the lucrative chips to lock in profits, or to shift the focus of defensive configuration varieties, but the overall position has declined relatively early stage. New funds, although some species have begun Jiancang, but the intensity Jiancang not. In general, agencies have taken to look look, The Hills view of the cautious strategy of fighting tiger, even in the heavyweight competition, the same is not deep wading.
3) between the medium and small retail game:
Proposed to focus on the texture of a good investment in M & A unit, or a lower price-earnings ratio of second-line blue-chip. For the short-term performance gains without the support of individual stocks is too large, you can consider progressively lighten up.
Disk X-ray: tomorrow is expected to test a low inertia to maintain the pattern of repeated shocks.
The opportunity to plate is expected to: It is recommended a temporary reduction in operations.
Market Risk points: short-term or excessive stocks, pay attention to out rallies.
Protection measures: proper control positions.
