Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-10-12
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: Bank of China listed on the eve of the leading indicators of stock Across the river is not only a view of the fire, but also stop being a main force army air force; Coincidentally, the brand Fund Hua Guan chaos before the array. It can be said, though Senpachi mark at your fingertips, but also a thorn in Montreal, how to understand the situation, seize opportunities and risks is the key. . .
Game Analysis
A) the main and policies of the Game:
1) Sinopec trend there Idea: Air release issued last reduced scale, rickety finally through the door listing, but the twists and turns of the lesson is worth the management attention and summary. According to this logic, ICBC issued preparatory work for listing the management should be vigilant, and is fully prepared, such as the Green Shoe mechanism. What's more is that ICBC IPO is the A shares issued to date the largest, and is expected to challenge the world's IPO record; A + H in the way of milestone significance. Therefore, to create a stable market environment and market sentiment, so that the ICBC listed issuers natural delivery was necessary.
ICBC's net purchase time for the next 16 to 18 October, and October 19, the online purchase day October 19th. From the performance of the current market situation, market is not as optimistic as anticipated. Of which there are two main reasons: on the one hand, the international tranche was oversubscribed about 14 times, the domestic institutions ICBC subscription is also a strong willingness. To sum up, the ICBC's investment value is highly recognized, and this became its A share may reach 40 billion massive financing of basic support and the ICBC is also listed issuers on the market, where immune system. On the other hand, as a key sentiment indicator stocks, Sinopec shares after the reform trend of weak, there may be a premium of around 6% compared with Hong Kong stocks impact, but these should not the most important, in the context of high oil prices, Sinopec's valuation up to 8 yuan. Therefore, the adjustment of Sinopec, the greater possibility is poised to deal with the bank issuing the emergency situation.
2) Hua An Fund closed before the chaotic array of conjecture: In the very moment the bank released this happens, we think that there is inherent reason to. First of all, a good texture ICBC to the Fund, and other mainstream funds are attractive, reducing the secondary market purchase ICBC's position is logical being, but such acts would bring about reduction of the expansion of psychological panic. A kind of two of its US-wide approach is to use a cover to tomorrow at large, stealing a march to publicize the fund fell Awkwardness motivation comes from the "Hua An Fund and discipline," Herding, in essence, the fund of funds secretly pulled out of the bank purchase tricks.
B) the main financial Game:
More recently, agencies have a cautious view of the early changes, have to see more ahead, in one fell swoop snatched 1,800 points, hit a new high is not any cause for alarmed forecasts, which can only be regarded as one of the points tend to be conservative. However, a careful analysis of them, the market has not so optimistic. First, the strength of plate makes people feel happy and worry: the annual performance of the leading growth despite the attractive non-ferrous metal plates and indirectly benefit from the driving force behind crude oil prices are no longer available; real estate section is the biggest beneficiary of yuan appreciation, performance also no shortage of bright spots However, continuous control, consolidation and other negative factors, the next attack can only be regarded as chicken ribs --- eat no meat, and discard the flavored; mainstream financial machinery is also involved in deep east of Sunrise west of rain, the Dow is no "feeling" there "feeling."
Structural differentiation in the market situation, the institution's collective view becomes somewhat more bleak. In a sense, the institution's view is that the slogan of self-help, because the market has been from the July 11, when the fall on the fund shares and other Awkwardness and underperformance mainly up to the weight when the blue-chip.
It is worth mentioning that the weights should be a high-quality blue-chip afternoon the focus of the main funds, funds from the recent ranking has undergone subtle changes. Gradually the radical style of the fund qualifying home, the sound-based fund was performing well, of course, this is also the market structure differentiation, complexity results. We expect that September 11 is just a few days after the weight of high-quality blue chips just a rehearsal, afternoon heavyweight ladder will be the way going forward.
3) between the medium and small retail game:
Listed company is currently listed as a whole is the mainstream trend, it is recommended for high-quality chips to lock.
Disk X-ray: Tomorrow index may cover gaps in 1755 and bottomed.
The opportunity to plate Expected: Tomorrow is expected to the financial sector and real estate home loans to borrowers with better performance.
Market Risk points: ICBC to attract high-quality blue chips, including the Fund, including a large-scale institutional subscription, the Fund may be significantly higher valuation of the fund holdings Awkwardness, it is recommended to avoid the attention of investors.
Protective measures: to recommend appropriate control positions.
