Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-07-04
2 yuan's warrants will certainly warrants more than 1 yuan expensive do? Is not so. On the value of more money and good stock, as measured by the absolute price warrants price is unscientific. So, how can you identify a warrant in the end is expensive or cheap out? There are two indicators can help investors make judgments intuitively, this is a premium rate and the implied volatility.
Premium
Premium rate refers to the warrant expires, the underlying asset prices, investors need to be conducive to the direction of change in the percentage range in order to enable holders to break even, that is, to break even. Warrants the premium rate is to reach a breakeven point, the percentage of the underlying securities to rise; put warrants the premium rate is to reach a breakeven point, the percentage of the underlying securities to fall.
Currently on the market approaching maturity recent two warrants: Baosteel JTB1 and Wanke HRP1, two warrants will expire by the end of August this year, but the premium rates were 39% and 47%. In other words, G Baosteel's share price should be in three months rose 39 percent, as of now the price to buy the right line of Baoshan Iron and Steel warrants before the investor may not be lost; while G Vanke's share price is only for three months fell within 47%, as of now the price for investors to buy Vanke warrants may not be lost before the right line. From this point of view, even though Baosteel JTB1 and Vanke HRP1 market premium rate levels are not the highest, but two warrants is currently on the market two of the most dangerous products. Baosteel JTB1 the current competitive price of around 0.45 yuan, while China Vanke HRP1 is simply worthless.
If the risk refers to the loss of future uncertainty, then, like Baosteel JTB1 and Vanke HRP1 such species, will only continue to hold for investors to determine the loss, or even lose everything, this is not scare-mongering.
Implied volatility
Implied volatility is based on the market price of warrants, using the valuation model warrants out against fluctuations in the rate calculation. In general, the share price performance of the more active, more Shangcuanxiatiao extremely unstable, the higher its volatility. For the long-term sideways trend of moderate or securities, the volatility is lower.
Implied volatility is a measure of the price warrants an important indicator of equal status, the higher the implied volatility, indicating the price of the warrant the more overvalued, the more we do not have investment value. For example, the May 30 closing price of JTC1 Anshan 4.380 yuan, the corresponding implied volatility of 246.3%. To that warrants meet current price of 4.380 yuan, the underlying securities must have the 246.3% of the level of volatility. According to statistical data, G Anshan historical volatility over the past year rate only 32% of the level, far below the current implied volatility of 246%, can be seen, the price of Anshan was seriously overvalued JTC1
