How to use the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures to speculate Money Tips

Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-04-05

It is reported that China's first financial futures products - Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures are expected to launch before the end of the year. So, as a general investor, how can we correctly grasp the trend of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures in order to ensure profitable?

We know that, and the prices to determine methods are divided into technical analysis and fundamental analysis, these two methods have advantages and disadvantages, so in practice need to be used in combination of both. Technical analysis of stock index futures for the future is still applicable, and almost every 1 investors are well aware of the technical analysis. Clearly, many investors now are very concerned about the issue is how to carry out the fundamentals of a stock index futures. This article is from this perspective a number of preliminary study, hoping to provide investors with some analysis for the general idea.

First, to understand the compilation method of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index

Establishment of stock index There are many ways, among which are market-weighted, price-weighted, and so the weight-weighted, arithmetic average and geometric mean. Internationally well-known stock index are mostly weighted by market value of equity. Equity market capitalization-weighted stock market is further divided into the circulation and the total equity market capitalization-weighted weighted. For example, the Dow Jones Global Index, the S & P index, and including the domestic Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index are based on value-weighted stock in circulation, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index, the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index is weighted based on the total equity market capitalization.

Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index to the circulation of such shares of the stock market value weighted index of the general use of the following formula:

Of which: value = day of the date of circulation of the stock market A number of outstanding shares of the stock's closing price × the number of shares in circulation + B × closing price + ... ... + N × closing price of

Base flow of the stock market value = base period A number of outstanding shares of the stock's closing price × the number of shares in circulation + B × closing price + ... ... + N × closing price of

Index points is to produce the base period specified by the Standards Day represented the market value of the points. The Shanghai Composite index the base period for the December 9, 1990, the date of the provisions of index points, 100 points; Shenzhen Composite Index for April 3, 1991 as the base period, the provisions of the base year index points, 100 points; Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index in 2004 December 31 as the base period, the base year index of 1,000 points.

Should be noted that the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index of stocks in circulation in the number of shares than the original number of shares outstanding, using the adjusted number of shares in circulation after. The specific adjustment method, see the CSI published the compilation method of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index.

Second, analysis of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index movements

For commodity futures speculation, we need the price of commodity spot to understand and even predict. Similarly, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures speculation, we have to spot - the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index to judge the possible trend as a way to guide our transactions.

In general, the factors that influence the trend of the indexes include:

(1) macroeconomic conditions

When the domestic economy is in rapid development period, the company has generally good, as a "barometer of the economy" stock market will steadily increase, conversely, when the economy entered a downturn, the stock market will fall into recession. Thus, a country's macroeconomic situation will to a large extent about broad market - the trend of stock.

In addition, increasing economic integration and globalization, a country's economic development will to a large extent by the rest of the world economies, the impact of a strong linkage between global stock markets is a good proof of this. On China's external dependence on such a high degree of openness of the growing countries, this effect will be more obvious. Therefore, the analysis of stock trends, while paying attention to the domestic economy, but also must pay attention to the situation in the world economy as a whole.

(2) Economic Policy

Even in the good macroeconomic situation, if the industry structure, the development of irrational, or out of the market economy the need for reform and so on, the state tends to introduce some policies, such as raising interest rates, increase currency fluctuation and so on, which would have the whole economy, especially in certain sectors plates cause greater impact. Even if these industries in each section the size of a small company, in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index constituent stocks in the market value of the share proportion is not large, but the plate inside the stock linkage is sufficient to stock movements have a greater impact.

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(3) The constituent stocks of the dividend payout, etc.

According to the principle of the establishment of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, when the constituent stocks for dividend payout and other activities, the index does not conduct human adjustment, but any of its natural fall. Therefore, the constituent stocks, especially in the heavily weighted stocks such as Sinopec, Bank of China will focus on dividend payout when the stock has a great impact.

Dividends dividends or capital increase enterprises There are many ways in general including cash dividends, stock dividends, Major Holders, share placements, fund donation, an additional issue, etc.. The light of the foregoing method of preparation of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, these activities may lead to a change in stock price, but not necessarily affect the stock movements, dividend payout only when the constituent stocks such activities as the cause of its stock market value of a change in the circulation, thereby affecting constituent stocks when the stock market will affect the index movement.

Firms to pay dividends in the way of dividend, cash dividends will lower the prices of individual stocks will reduce the flow of market value; stock dividends will lower the prices of individual stocks, but will not affect the flow of market value; Fund donation will lower the price but will not reduce the market value; issuance, allotment although will increase the flow of market value, but the listing of shares in the new index will generally be adjusted accordingly in order to avoid distortion index, but which we should give attention, as new shares in the stock market will lead to weight increase, the trend of the index of the impact would be increased.

To sum up, we need special attention, especially in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index constituent stocks in the heavily weighted stock in cash dividends, issuance, placement and other activities, its quantity, timing and even the possibility of a better grasp.

(4) The weight of a larger trend of individual stocks

Weight stocks in the index because a larger proportion, as represented by the business conditions change, or inconsistent with the investor expectations, the price may be significant fluctuations occur, which will inevitably lead to further stock market value of its circulation flow of the market value fluctuation, thereby affecting the stock movements.

(5) The replacement of constituent stocks

According to the principle of the establishment of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, constituent stocks of the replacement principle is that every six months, and for larger market shares in circulation is different. For example Bank of China listed on the first 10 trading days after the end of the second day into the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index. Constituent stocks of the replacement of the same day (according to the principle under normal circumstances, two weeks in advance release) in general does not impact on the index, but we need to pay attention to the timely replacement of new components as well as stock weight, operating conditions in areas such as tracking, assessment of .

III Summary

Whether the stock market or futures market, the investment, in addition to master the necessary technical analysis methods, the investor must also invest in the fundamentals of object. As the stock market and the futures market, the product of the connection - the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures is no exception.

Want to carry out the fundamentals of a stock index futures, investors first need to understand the compilation method of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, and then based on analysis that may affect the stock index of the number of factors. The author believes that the macroeconomic conditions at home and abroad, economic policy will play a leading role in the trend index; index constituent stocks, especially heavyweights such dividends will also affect the stock dividend.

In addition, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures for judging a guiding role, in fact, futures prices to spot prices there are some guiding effects, investors should not use the spot stock index futures price movements as the sole basis for judging.

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