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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
How to use the main chip acts of distribution analysis
The position is the main market, the biggest secret. Know the secret, for individual investors who like to know where buried gold, and even tantamount to a reservoir in front of the Alibaba shouted: "Open, Sesame."
First, the main position of the principle of Discovery
In reality, people are generally very difficult to Discovery this secret. The main force of this secret can not speak, nor no place to inquire. Some investors hope that the cumulative turnover of a single large disk on the position to calculate the main force, but this approach, in fact, very large discrepancies with the facts. Because, as we know, in order to counter-tracking, the main bargaining chip is often divided into a number of their own copies, as has been the main Yiankeji ever notice, he spent a more than 600 retail accounts, to carry out a stock operations.
Assume that a 10 billion funds to operate on disk. 10 100 million should be considered as relatively large funds, and when it is divided into 100 copies, or be divided into 1,000 copies, it is not so eye-catching. Since even a large 10 billion in funds, if the account distributed in 1000, then each account on the left 1 million, then the disk seen trading volumes, is nothing more than a volume in the household, you the dealer can not find where. That is of particular concern because of all of these large transactions, and have made the main addition of a cheating line method. If you would like to accumulation of the main force, he would deliberately release a large list as a sell-off, make you think that there are big to quit, but he can complete the list with a small accumulation. In turn, mainly on shipping time? Can use single large transaction orders to buy and then spend 10 times the largest single transaction a small deal to sell a single immersion, you get the main point there is no way.
Illusion that many people can make Trader individual to learn the main positions. There are many rumors on the market, but these rumors have quite a big problem. Recall, we really have heard of a main force of shares of listed companies have a rumor, but we have never heard of the main stock in which only lighten up the news. The fact that this market has once again shows that the main message has a stock which is likely to be intentionally leaked, the main exposure to their own positions and public informed of the purpose of the information is the same, nothing more than to the process of its serves to lure you Sedan Chair, even when shipped in its admission to lure the public funds. We might recall a detail, often when we learned the news of a stock when the price of these stocks are generally not low, since these markets are well-informed people can inquire about the position to the main core of the secret, then why in the main period of low accumulation but there is no news came out? During the main ship, but not have access to a warning. It appears that the dealer looking for a self-interest, often hesitate to take their own acquaintances and friends Kaishuan. I have friends with a share of controversy for no less than an hour, my friend said, the dealer himself told him that they (the dealer) is still in the Pearl of the Orient is not only the stock to go, but this time at the crash just before the Pearl of the Orient's most dangerous high on. There are more funny stories, some well-known television and newspaper editorial board, often an office, from top to bottom in a full range of stocks, who deceived them? Interestingly, these large reporter actually still a friend of his bookmakers defense, meaning that his friend had intended to support the market, but unfortunately selling, too, would like to carry also carry do not live.
In this case, how do measure the main positions?
Look at the profit-plate. I ask you the usual practice in general is beneficial to the number of throws it? The answer is that the majority of individual investors profit 10% -20% throw the hands of a bargaining chip, that is, it is difficult to share a floating retail profits to do more than 20%, so we have the first principle: profits are not a bargaining chip is the main cast chips.
Look at some sort of relief plate, individual psychology is generally holding, "profit is restless, deep quilt is unusual calm." Big bear market in the securities business department is basically empty, not to mention the sale of stocks, individual investors are even too lazy to read the tape to see. And when stock prices bottomed out a rebound, investors close to the state get out of trouble, the stock market on the re-active again. When the stock price back to pre-entangle the area near the city caused relatively large volume, indicating investors in these early quilt, once some sort of relief, they have chose to stay on the sidelines.
It is like a scene like this: a group of tourists in the cave's maze of distress, they lost as it has been for several days lost in the intricacy of the cave, dark, cold, hunger and fear surrounded them. At this time, suddenly found a hole, shoot a bunch of incoming sunlight so that they can cheer, which means that they are saved. How they will do? They must quickly escape from this dark place. This is a human. Very few people so romantic: We already saved, then why would I worry away? This is still very memorable experience do, let me live for two days to experience this unforgettable experience of the cave experience. This probably will not be any tourists. So, some sort of relief leave the casual universal code of conduct.
However, things are always exceptions, shown in Figure 5-1, a bit puzzling.
Figure 5-1: Founder Technology (600,601) 2001/03/30
Technical Chart stock At first glance, nothing special, the stock fell 20 percent since the peak, then slowly pushed up the original quilt chips gained some sort of relief. From the volume point of view, but also show the trend of heavy volume out of some sort of relief. However, upon careful observation of the stock turnover, we find that it in fact a very low turnover, such as the last one K Line (2001/03/30), its turnover is only 0.43%. Familiar with the turnover of the friends all know that once a stock turnover rate is less than 1%, from time-map observations, little or no stock trading, this situation is technically called immeasurable. Fang Cai we talked about, in general, once the lock-plate has been loosened, the market will emerge out of a sufficient number of some sort of relief sell-off, but the stock at 60% of the chips to obtain some sort of relief conditions, there is no selling pressure created some sort of relief . Why is Founder Technology stock investors so strong? Do they quilt once, repent and not afraid of re-fitted? The Unit followed the trend of opening a mystery. The stock quickly pulled a few days later, apparently hoping to force the main have been ready before the position that these sort of relief not to sell the chips, in fact, the main chips.
This is not difficult to understand, if the main hold more than Liutong Pan more than 50% of the chips, even some sort of relief there is no shipping opportunities. That is why a lot of chips, once thrown, the share price will be re-fall in the main will be faced with re-fitted. Therefore, even if the main wants to go, it must be pulled up a number of shares limit-board, and give ourselves enough to construct a space ship.
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This is the stock market is another important principle: some sort of relief not to sell the chips are the main chips.
Retail Zuifan What? Individual investors are not afraid of the stock fell, they fell, holding it wants, a very good mentality. Zuifan is the stock's long-term rise. A month's time, or even two or three months time, while you earn 10%, while you lose 10%, while let you earn 10%, while let you lose 10%, two to three months toss to toss about with me, left to no one can not stand such psychological torture. Therefore, the stock's long-term shocks sideways at the retail level tend to Rennaibuzhu, in a position to throw away the stock - even hid untouchables can not afford to do? So we have a third principle: sideways indelible chips are the main chips.
In this way, we have obtained through individual study to determine the main positions of the three basic principles, these principles can be further used for accurate calculation of the main positions of the technical approach.
Second, down the main measurement of position
Next, we have statistics about the number of chips a profit instead of selling.
First of all, how much profit is called a profit? We each have their own argument. I will give you a reference standard: 25% of profits are still not to sell chips is the main chip. Because according to the habit of retail operations, which contributed 25 percent profit-taking in enough. However, we obviously do not want to use calculator to calculate each time 25% of the position is in dollars and cents, and good software, there is a 10% geometric coordinates of line, two lines of each interval is a 10% Price Limit , from the approximation of the map the location of two and a half up daily limit is quite convenient. We use this instead of just said 25% (two and a half up the price of daily limit rate is 27%): the first K-line map and move around the cursor, it points to your concerns and that a K-line, and then from top to bottom Move the cursor, the cursor down the highest price since the recent two and a half daily limit, and then distributed from the chip window, read the cursor below the number of chips, this chip is the main force of the number of positions.
Figure 5-2 is a famous Yiankeji, its final trading day is June 11, 1999. Then Yiankeji's share price is not high, the highest price that day was 29.48 yuan. The K-line diagram of the cursor from the recent high price of 29.48 yuan down two and a half daily limit, roughly about 23 yuan to move the location, and then look at the distribution of chips lower right corner of the window with the cursor that number, which is now at the cursor location can see the value of 89.95, meaning that chips from the cursor below the 89.95% total Liutong Pan, this is what we measured the amount of the main positions
Figure 5-2: Yiankeji (0008) 1999/06/11
This measurement method in the end whether the Right do?
As we are not qualified to exchange check the accounts of others, and because the main use of the sub-storage means, so for a long time for this measurement method we lack confidence, it is precisely Yiankeji stock has given us to verify that the approach the accuracy of opportunities.
In 2001, along with acts of market manipulation Yiankeji been fully came to light, ** Department organized a judicial investigation. Finally confirmed: From October 5, 1998, the Yiankeji of four making company - Guangdong Xin Sheng investment, the 100 investments, 100 source of investment and easy to invest in gold is the use of 627 individual stock accounts and three corporate stock account, the predecessor of a large number of buying Yiankeji "deep Hanny" stocks. When the company reported a total of four of its 53 million shares of holding company stock, accounting for 1.52% of the outstanding shares. By January 12, 2000 only, the four companies reached 3001 million shares of stock held by Yiankeji, accounting for 85% of outstanding shares. (According to "Finance" magazine in June 2001, reported). So we put the cursor to January 12, 2001, and then down about two and a half daily limit to estimate the amount of time the main positions, the result is the main positions of about 86.87%, with the results of the survey is only a difference of less than 2 points. It seems the accuracy of this measurement method is reliable.
We define the main position of this measuring method is called "Down the Law." It created a technical analysis of a new era in this position before the main accurate calculation is almost impossible. A joke that this method was discovered in 2000 some regret, if it come out earlier, we can Yiankeji in 1999, the stock only 20-odd when the banker found a high degree of stock positions, when, and making play one will be very interesting. And by February 2000, the Unit has risen to 126 yuan, was lent to me by 10 courageous and I can not "Dancing with the village," the.
Let's look at June 24, 1999 Pearl of the Orient. Figure 5-3.
Figure 5-3: Oriental Pearl (600,832) 1999/06/24
Figure 5-3 and Figure 5-2 there is a small difference, Figure 5-2 that measured the highest trading day's closing price of the stock, but Figure 5-3's stock price down from their recent highs, has done a Some minor adjustments. Let us remember that down the main measurement of position, the cursor moves down from the maximum price recently, in Figure 5-3, the recent highest price in 11 trading days prior to the closing price from the day down 2 one and a half daily limit, roughly 30 yuan to move stock around the same time targeting cursor that you want to measure a K-line, that is, the last of a K-line diagram (1999/06/24), then we read out the cursor of the under the chip volume is 6.71%. Pearl of the Orient at this moment is very dangerous. Because in a month ago, the same is down measurement, we measured the main positions is about 60%, while the main positions are now only about 6.7%, and the remaining chips go? Can not rule out the possibility of the main ship. In particular, in June 1999, the Oriental Pearl high strength sideways, Shanghai stock market would not fall in the banner, very proud. Then even a small hit another new high. Its main market in the full structure of the stock of public space for the imagination, despite drastic changes in the unit: two weeks has fallen by 6 daily limit, medium and small investors across the board quilt miserable.
But the down method has its drawbacks: If the stock price up is not achieved a breakthrough, we can not adopt Down Measurement. Sideways, especially those low stocks, the main chips, retail chips mixed, with two and a half down the daily limit is almost not see any chips, so down law mainly applies to being pulled up a strong period of rising stocks.
Third, measurement of the main positions sideways
Since the down method is a measurement of the stock pulled up period of the main position of the technical approach, then, is there a relatively low price zone positions accurate measurement of the main methods? Yes, this method is called "sideways measurement of the main positions."
Figure 5-4: Shandong Juli (0880) 1999/12/21
Stock since October 26, 1999, has been carried out sideways for two months, during which shocks the range of 10%. Chart from the K point of view, in this space, there are many large shocks and large-Yin Xian Yang Xian, disk very busy. And in this sideways up to two months, we have to align the cursor sideways boxes Xiangdi found that up to 58% of the chip in up to two months in the sideways shock have not been washed off . Therefore be sure, the main unit of the positions will not fall below 58%.
This method of measurement is called the main positions sideways method. Sideways law requires that a stock cabinets in a sideways consolidation for more than two months. At this time the K-line diagram of the cursor aligned sideways along the next box, and then distributed from the chip to read out of the window under the cursor the amount of chips, this chip is the main volume of the positions.
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The main stock after the completion of the accumulation, on January 26, 2000 break up, a total increase of space within six months about 70%. It was a pretty good big black horse Zhuanggu in its share price up after the break, we use measured by the unit down the main positions, the result was 61%, the data and the original measurement of the main positions sideways very close.
From this, the position was informed that the main condition is not difficult, you need to know some theory, then one of the most simple tool - chip distribution on it. Once were found in the low-cost high-Kongpan main, you will also have at least 30% of the profit margins. In most cases, the main high Kongpanzhuanggu the total gains to about double that or else the main it is very difficult to ship chips distribution of the basic principles of
"Bargaining chip distribution" of the search for an exact name should be called "the outstanding shares of the cost of the distribution of positions" in the compass in the stock analysis software, it's English name "CYQ".
In fact, the "bargaining chip distribution" is a Chinese name, because in the world, may be only the Chinese people control the stock is called a bargaining chip, perhaps only the Chinese people to invest in stocks is called "stocks." Add the stock a "speculation" word, there is more manual intervention in the flavor of the game have more flavor. And if the stock position is called "chips", it is tantamount to the stock market as a casino. This is more or less on the stock market does not respect, but our stock market has a strong game color is a fact. In the stock market of the game, people need to do is to use their own funds in exchange for someone else's chips, and then their own chips in exchange for someone else's money this reason that could save other people's money. Therefore, stocks of any one person, understanding and use of chips and chips, and distribution is extremely important.
Perhaps "the distribution of chips" and "CYQ" of the title, there should be a more appropriate name, but this argument we have already spent a few years, has become a habit and think about changing relatively trouble, so the convention, for the time being so the title bar .
"Bargaining chip distribution" means the market can be understood: it reflects the price at different positions on a number of investors. If the words alone to describe the "bargaining chip distribution" may be a difficult task, for convenience, we have established and analyzed the distribution model for a micro chip, so the reader a more accurate understanding of its meaning.
1. Chips distribution and calculation principle
We first do a hypothetical:
A company has 16 shares, these 16 shares were three different investors. A shareholder who bought in the 10 yuan price on the three stocks, and later on in the price of 11 yuan to buy six shares; while shareholders of B positions in the cost 12 yuan to buy a 4 unit; shareholders of C, at 13 yuan on buying has a share, in the 14 yuan on the two shares held. Shares of these three shareholders add up exactly 16 shares.
We do a map.
In this diagram, we put the stock replaced with the same chip as the tiles, in the diagram on the right, we should first clearly marked price, from 10 yuan to 14 yuan has been marked, a total of five price, and then we put these chips in accordance with At that time the cost of shareholders to buy it to its corresponding price piled on, so the form looks like Figure 1-1:
Figure 1-1: A simple distribution model for chip
From this map we can clearly see: the stock price at 11 yuan, investors relatively heavier chips, followed by 12-10 yuan, 13 yuan more than the amount of no more chips. In addition to the above mentioned shareholders of A, B, C outside, once there is an investor D, 9 yuan bought stock and subsequently in 11 yuan sold to shareholders A, then, Mr. D, a question, "I am 9 yuan trading history of how the money is not a bargaining chip in this map are reflected?" Actually, this is not hard to make it clear, we noted that the map of the chip a total of only 16 stocks, while the stock Liutong Pan is 16 shares, only to go to the performance of chips distributed to all shareholders of record on that day the Jiancang costs, because D has sold his stock, so he chips in the chip on the distribution of sight. This is the distribution of chips is an important feature: it reflects not only a stock of all the investors all Liutong Pan's Jiancang costs and positions, it indicates that the most realistic position on the disk status.
As the transaction continues, chips will flow between the investor and therefore the distribution of chips is not immutable. Assumed that followed a deal: Shareholders B his price of 12 yuan Jiancang 4 shares sold 3 shares traded price is 14 yuan, D undertaking by the shareholders, so the distribution becomes a bargaining chip in that looks like Figure 1-2 :
Figure 1-2: Chip investors shift between
In fact, the chips do not care about the distribution of the chips in the end disk belongs to shareholders, shareholders of B or A, the above figure the reason why two analog labeling shareholding status, just to let everyone see more clearly.
Replaced by a listed company, if true, then a company's Liu Tongpan there are at least 1000 shares, the price distribution is quite broad. Figure 1-3 is a real bargaining chip distribution, it was placed in K-line diagram to the right, in the price on it and the K-line diagram to use the same coordinate system. When a large number of chips stacked together, the distribution looks like a bargaining chip in the mountains side-pattern. These mountains are actually from right to left by a line of piled made, every price range have a representative of the horizontal positions. Positions is greater the longer the lines, these lines of different lengths together to form a pile height of the peaks missing state, also formed a bargaining chip in the distribution of forms.
Can be seen from Figure 1-3, May 15, 2000 of Shen Baoan A There are two different Jiancang intensive areas. In other words, chip distribution, we can see two very obvious intense peaks: one at the price of money over four nearby, and another at more than six money price range.
Figure 1-3: Shen Baoan A 2000.05.15-day chip distribution
As the stock to the public, providing investors with accounts of information, so all kinds of software distribution in the chip are calculated by approximation of the historical transactions. Assume that the probability of throwing chips and floating profits and holding time-related, you can invest in a number of groups to conduct sampling in order to obtain a function of the probability of this throw, and then throw the basis of this probability, which found that daily trading in The original old chips were offset by today's new chips instead.
We then put a simple little question: According to a considerable number of investors profit-taking habits, particularly with regard to small investors, in the profits 10-20% between the most likely to sell the stock; while the main purposes of it is difficult to below 30% of the profits to sell most of his positions. Well, profits 15% of the profit drive of the date of the contribution of turnover than 25% of profits to be larger. This is a more accurate method of calculating the distribution of chips, and sometimes because of computational considerations, can also be used to replace an equal probability of throwing a real throw probability and statistics, this will lead to a certain degree of error, but this error is can bear The. Because in the actual investment analysis, a price more or less the amount of chips that will not affect the final conclusion.
In the "compass" in CYQ introduction, almost all of the domestic software manufacturers have copied the distribution of a chip, some have done is still very good, but there are some algorithms the error is too large. Such is not the historical accuracy of the algorithm is closing, according to time-weighted, longer accounts for the lower proportion of the distribution of chips, this would appear to still be eligible for a distribution of things like chips, but in fact can not be used. Because the unit level of activity vary widely, man-made chips to determine the evaporation speed of the history is difficult to reflect this difference.
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