Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-10-28
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: The regulation of combination punches again last weekend debut interest rate and reduce interest tax introduced at the same time. As the market think that this is a signal advantage of this opportunity, have strong backhand to do more, again close to previous highs. Taking into account the previous high pressure, investors should pay attention to short-term intervention hot wheeled features.
Game Analysis
A) the main and policies of the Game:
1) The second largest city, the logic behind the rapid strength: from simple philosophy for the development of things is to follow a certain pattern: the qualitative change is to go through the accumulation process, but we see a qualitative change may be instantaneous a. As the current market, the two trading days before, the market is still waiting to see more doctrinal and emotional; But in the market today already has become quite clear: 88% of fund managers believe that the stock market will rise, which will significantly increase the number of options for the 50 %.
Column view, the market quickly is a strong logic behind the two aspects become clear. First of all, the Fund and other bodies is expected to become clear. In June after the major city of the state of adjustment, institutions dominate the market has gradually replaced the retail-oriented Quotes characteristics, their behavior has become the key to determine the market trend. The disclosure of the Fund in the second quarter after the body is to go or stay the mystery has finally been unveiled. 2 Quarterly Bulletin showed that some of the fund volatility in the early position in the reduced, but more funds are tactical positions to adjust the structure, and even took the opportunity to holdings of some of the species, such as finance and real estate. It can be said that the Fund and other agencies with actions to show that the market outlook is still relatively optimistic, but each of the adjustments is Jiancang opportunity.
Secondly, the management take the initiative to provide the market with uncertain long-term expectations. As a developing country, China's many industries face similar issues, namely the rapid development and capital-hungry disease co-exist. Such as the railway industry, annual investment shortfall as high as 100 billion, it is clear these gaps be resolved exclusively through bank loans is not very feasible. Financing channels for Chinese enterprises is currently relatively homogeneous, about Bacheng financing comes from bank loans, this dependency is bound to greatly enhance the financial risks of the banking system, so the stock market financing to expand the proportion of strategic significance. In addition, after the next two decades the situation of China's aging population will be very serious, when the pressure of social welfare expenditure will be quite large, so management has a need to provide a clear market for the long-term expectations for social security, insurance and other financial resources to develop an effective operating channels.
At present, the management has for the A shares of the long-term stable development of the ongoing efforts. For example, since September 1 adjusted the QFII management practices in order to attract more long-term capital into the A shares, and actively market its healthy development.
2) The hot afternoon movement of the main features: an operational concept of point of view, as important causes of this rise in the second quarter of the Fund and the new fund continuous disclosure and distribution, so this column that the short to medium term the market will continue to revolve around the value of hot spots investment philosophy, specific terms there are two main categories The first category is blue chip companies, supported by three factors: the near future will likely launch of stock index futures, valuation is relatively low, the new fund preferred varieties. The second type is the better performance of growth in middle-market stocks. Most of the Fund believes in the second half to promote the greatest force is to improve the performance of sales prices and increase production, then by inference, real estate, machinery, and some small species of non-ferrous metals, coal will be the first choice for the industry.
From the disk of view, the market after two trading days of sharp gains, there is a small demand shocks, so investors from the compensatory growth point of view, select the above-mentioned two categories of species or behind the intervention.
B) the main financial Game:
Taking into account the index is at a relatively high level with the upcoming stock index futures and other factors, some of the main body throw some of the lucrative chips to lock in profits, or to shift the focus of configuration varieties of higher margin of safety, but the overall position has also been a relatively early stage decline. New funds, although some species have begun Jiancang, but the intensity Jiancang not. In general, agencies have taken while walking to see, The Hills view of the cautious strategy of fighting tiger. In the heavyweight competition, the agencies have begun a preliminary layout.
3) between the medium and small retail game:
Proposed to focus on the texture of a good investment in M & A unit, or a lower price-earnings ratio of second-line blue-chip. Is too large for short-term gains without the support of the substantive subject matter stocks could be considered to gradually lighten up.
Disk X-ray: may be a small increase is expected for tomorrow
The opportunity to plate is expected to: It is recommended to pay attention to blue-chip, mechanical.
Market Risk points: short-term or excessive stocks, pay attention to out rallies.
Protection measures: proper control positions.
