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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
A) the main and policies of the Game:
A) management set the tone for the market, is expected to not pose a real interest rate: from the recent market performance, two factors of major cities around the bubble on the attitude and the management and control, but as the market adjustment of these two factors have been significantly weakened. First of all, after a rapid drop in shares after the A-weighted price-earnings ratio has declined, this situation is more evident on the broad-market index stocks. Second, the plunge in a certain extent, curb speculation in the atmosphere has reached an initial increase in management control The purpose of rhythm.
In fact, management has recently expressed the attitude of care market, suggesting that the market bubble is no longer the principal contradiction and promote integration of the company's assets, greatly enhance the quality of listed companies to promote the virtuous circle of the market is an important task. Thus, in the next period of time, the market is mainly the negative factors are likely to raise interest rates. Affected by factors such as rising food prices push, CPI increased in momentum, inflationary pressures have increased, which increased the market's expectations of rate hike around the Spring Festival. In this case, Bank of China Deputy Governor Wu Xiaoling has published an article saying the role of interest rate instruments is limited, and suggested that regulation of the stock market with rate hike to say the lack of theoretical basis.
From a psychological point of view of the expected, regardless of whether the Chinese New Year rate hike, the market has already been digested to some extent. Step back and look at, even if the central bank increases interest rates is expected to impact on the market are not too large, safe purchase a massive amount of funds to freeze can be seen currently on the market capital adequacy.
2) The main follow the example of QFII staged empty city: In the current round of adjustment before the first to talk about bubbles is mainly foreign institutional investors at the same time they are also a member of the loudest voices, but the actual operational situation, they are apparently resorted to the well-known the empty city, scared off a lot of domestic investors. Statistics show that set up only in December last year, AMP Capital China Growth Fund in just a month's time, the positions had reached 96%, overseas Chinese funds quickly Jiancang, reflecting their long-term trend of China's bullish stock market, big City to adjust precisely to provide them with an opportunity to intervene.
Now holiday approaching, many investors have a profit out of the psychological, which could give the mainstream funding opportunities to collect chips. On the one hand, the profitability of listed companies is still good, have been disclosed in 2006 annual reports of 97 listed companies, net profit growth of 73.45 percent over the previous year, taking into account the assets into the new accounting standards and other factors, the valuation of listed companies in 2007 is still room for larger. On the other hand, the market is still relatively abundant capital, plus interest, non-tradable shares lifting of the ban is difficult to shake the foundation of the bull market.
However, the recent active edge of individual stocks are expected to fund attack is still not the main target of 2007 is still not escape the fate of marginalization;, of course, a handful of truly meaningful part of quality assets into stocks and concern.
B) the main financial Game:
As the investor reaction to management's control over the sound, big city, there was a substantial pre-adjustment. This is very likely to force management to support the market to make moves, the main capital is very likely to take advantage of this opportunity to start large blue-chip counter-offensive. But the main force is unlikely to large-scale counterattack. Especially the Fund, current management of very strict monitoring their behavior. In addition, we should note that some institutions use the opportunity to adjust positions, resulting in partial downside risk.
3) between the medium and small retail game:
The future of large blue-chip stocks and growth may arise between the rhythm of switching, but the hot spots may be gradually tilted to the growth stocks. Proposed to focus on the texture of a good investment in M & A unit, or a lower price-earnings ratio of second-line blue-chip. For the short-term performance gains without the support of individual stocks is too large, you can consider progressively lighten up
