Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-05-19
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: In the tape onto the Senpachi later, despite no lack of optimism in the market tone, many organizations are more bullish on the four seasons Quotes; but the city of highbrow case also raises a number of pessimistic tone: If there are still control the pressure in the fourth quarter, three quarters somewhat lower performance than the other ring, in particular, the market once again be staged next week, issuing new shares Lianzhu, all of these factors will become the last straw that overwhelms the broader market do?
Game Analysis
A) the main and policies of the Game:
1) set the tone for the management of market structure - stability in order to balance: ICBC's listing on the eve of the Xinhua News Agency published an article, said the ICBC listing heavyweight help to strengthen the market value of the investment philosophy, to reduce excessive speculation has a positive meaning, but also pointed out that the market will show a structure-based bull market. Xinhua News Agency's remarks, in fact, reiterated management's point of view: blue-chip capacity to grow and improve the overall quality of A shares to maintain stable operation of the market.
From this angle of view, the market boom has greatly reduced the possibility of collapse. The question then should be the focus of the market if it come down much of the space is there. In accordance with past thinking, the index increased by 16% or more straight, more than half of the stocks has risen weak, it should be there is to a certain extent callbacks. But now the situation has changed, it should be on the market repositioning. First of all, the stock market compared with the mature countries. Compared with the United States, China has the economy's rapid development and long-term appreciation of the yuan advantage. Now that the Dow could hit a new high for several years, A shares should also enhance the market's valuation of the appropriate level. Second, in this year's bull market, the large blue-chip gain is obviously lagging behind, but most have a certain valuation underestimated. By the stock index futures and margin trading factors, the large blue-chip gradually being mainstream funding of all ages. In this case, the large blue-chip index soared to the direct cause of compensatory growth. Finally, the closely watched heavyweight performance in a low-key, in 2007 at two times book value, compared with the present Bank of the valuation is still a slight advantage, so there should not be like the ICBC Bank of China led lower broader market situation.
Therefore, the market valuation at the center of gravity shift, a rough calculation should be around 1650, that is, near the half line. By the way, the focus here is not that index will be adjusted to this location.
2) Lianzhu IPO have some short-term negative effects: Next week there will be six new shares onto the market issue, this is already the third time this year the peak period of new shares issued, and in front of more than twice the size. Of market performance, before the second index is basically stable, although somewhat during the callback. From scale point of view, the expansion of pressure on next week's IPO will not exceed the bank, so next week's IPO may have a certain short-term negative effects, but not much. However, to note that the relatively stable conditions in the index, some stocks may be a huge drop in cases in which structured the Xinhua News Agency referred to in a bull market.
B) the main financial Game:
In the last few trading days, the target shares outstanding performance, it is the main money grab chips lift results. Behavior of the main funds on the one hand it can stabilize the market, while the layout of large blue-chip board, is expected in the next few days, the main money is still surrounded by the plate start game.
3) between the medium and small retail game:
Recommendations can be goal-oriented blue chips or part of the growth stocks, patience to hold.
Disk X-ray: broad market opened higher on the gap had been filled, is expected next Monday will likely was rocky for close out the doji.
The opportunity to plate is expected to: next week with a big plate of blue-chip stable to perform well.
Market Risk points: disk show the two cities a "stagflation" phenomenon, short-term callback request; determined to avoid underperformance as shares and stocks rose too large part of the.
Protection measures: It is recommended rallies to trim, proper control positions.
