Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-11-01
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: We believe that next week, this week to suspend issuance of new shares and the reduction in the amount of central bank bills issued does not mean that market pressures will slow. On the contrary, such a sudden slowdown is likely to be for the introduction of more restrictive management measures taken to set aside space for acts of ......
According to media reports, since July 10, China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the site will notice, the trial has not been updated for several days. 2 weeks has been followed in every Monday to meet regularly review IPO's "practice", it seems that also this week, be interrupted. Fa program under the provisions of the trial will be held, in addition to orientation without additional notice, the Fa Shenwei meeting held on the 5th, the publisher of the meeting reviewed the list of the contents of the meeting time should be in the SFC website. As of yesterday issued notice of the trial would still not refreshed, which means that not only this week, Wednesday will not be according to the last two weeks of "practice" to meet audit is unlikely to again this week, five meeting, there are observed thus believe that, IPO audit or suspended for a week.
Most market participants believe that one week to suspend issuing new shares may be two weeks before issuing new shares, taking into account the speed too fast, have too great an expansion of the market panic, so to suspend distribution to the market a period of time to digest expansion pressure.
Of this section that the distribution may indeed stay out of management to maintain market stability taking into account the perspective of an initiative taken. Judging from the current situation, such as the ICBC's IPO has been so super-aircraft carriers scheduled for release in October, but not as we all guess who will soon emerge in the short term, this may have been the management was to maintain market stability forced to slow down the speed issue.
However, this does not mean we can sit back and relax, the current expansion of the market pressures are great, but still within reasonable limits, it does not solely as a stress management to reduce the reasons for the market expansion. Behind the suspension of release, it may imply a larger "conspiracy." The management to suspend issuance of new shares, worries the market can not afford the current financial pressures, might as well say that to some extent also shows that the future market may have to experience more uncertainty in anticipation.
In our view, taking into account the macro-control should further strengthen its efforts, as well as the core of economic data in June is still not an ideal situation, the recent introduction of such is likely to further increase the savings deposit rate, or even raising interest rates for such a move, and in this background, the only slow release management initiatives.
Coincidentally, according to the central bank announcement today, the inter-bank market, the tender will be issued in 2006 the fifty-first year central bank bills, term 1, the highest circulation of 15 billion yuan, bill payment date of interest from July 19, both at , maturity date of July 19, 2007, expiration paid 100 yuan face value. Current Issuance of 50 billion last week to reduce the size of the 350 million range is very large,
Experts generally believe that the central bank to reduce circulation of three main reasons: one, last week the central bank issued 50 billion yuan an additional one-year orientation instruments, resulting in the circulation of such notes a week up to 1,000 billion yuan, some of the primary dealers Dungan "anemic" for the current market demand for the Notes may be dropped, so the central bank reduced the flow of circulation; 2 this week, significantly reduced the amount of money due. According to analysis, due this week, central bank bills 12.0 billion, is due repurchase 95 billion yuan, maturity funds totaling 107 billion yuan; 3 to ease the market expectations. Recently, the central banks continue to tighten policy (such as raising interest rates) have been endless rumors that the central bank intends to relax current open market operations will help ease the uneasiness in the market sentiments.
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We believe the market raising over-investment lead to economic overheating alert awareness of the structural compression of banks willingness to lend to increase the intensity of macroeconomic regulation and control has always been the central bank's recent targets. From this point, the central bank should not try to ease market tensions and the corresponding reduction in circulation, because the current macro-control objectives and policies far removed from the actual results, control, the central bank lending is still long way to go. Therefore, in order to reduce market pressure to reduce the amount of central bank bills issued is unrealistic, and the surface it appears to be gentle and mild way may have been good on the eve of the storm was coming.
Based on the above projections, we can draw such a conclusion, this is a tacit understanding why the management of large-scale distribution at the same time after the brakes, reducing the issuance of new shares, as well as the amount of central bank bills, the issue is not simply want to slow down the market pressure, but to a larger follow-up to reserve space on policy implementation. From the macro-control pressures, the current pace of regulation is also further accelerate the trend, taking into account the June data and objectives of management are great differences in interest rates and central banks to raise deposit rates is also a normal option.
We believe that if indeed, as we have said will put the appropriate measures, whether it is once again raise interest rates or raising margin rates or other measures, the main impact on the market will be further market capitalization of blood.
From the market situation, the trading volume level of activity is far less 5,6 month, the amount of IPO-locked funds to freeze 200 billion China's international funds to the Bank of China to freeze 500 billion of funds (in accordance with the international year of work estimates, purchase, Bank of China the funds should be far more than 500 billion), the market purchase of new shares of funds are also shrinking. Reduction in risk-free arbitrage funds, illustrates the real stock market, the reduction in funding. And this reduction is not entirely due to purchase of new shares resulting from blood money, most of which should be a tightening of monetary policy and other relevant measures to squeeze out, such as actions such as bank checks discount notes, in essence, from the stock market take away the part of the amount of money.
In addition, the share reform of listed companies under the program, from July late, G Unit, the company became a market capitalization of thawed another great pressure. As in August by 32 listed companies thaw, thaw would amount to 320 billion yuan, the need to carry money over the issue of the Bank of China. The tape from the current position and the actual price-earnings ratio stocks of view, without regard to controlling shareholders to strengthen the right, large shareholders have every reason to be part of the reduction at a high level.
The above two points will be before and after have not been too generous to the current market capitalization to bring blood side effects, which are not taken into consideration is the management, but was forced to slow down the speed of the real reason for issuing it.
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