Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-05-20
1,2006 that the market will continue to present opportunities for local characteristics, as a whole will be maintained or adjusted downward trend
Main reasons are as follows:
(1) The macro-economic deflationary pressure growing, business growth and profitability growth will be constrained
In the next two to three years time scales, the promotion of economic growth, lack of power troika:
â—?a steady decline in growth rate of investment is a foregone conclusion
â—?appreciation of the renminbi in the context of net exports is not optimistic
â—?Based on income based on the consumer it is difficult to obtain increased dramatically.
China's economic growth outlook is not optimistic that this will largely restrict business growth and profitability.
Although there are many new formulation of Eleventh Five Year Plan, but in the next two to three years time, can only become the local industry and business growth of the foundation, not enough to start a new one to promote economic prosperity.
Our research found that Chinese residents of disposable income growth and economic growth in China remained synchronized relationship, which means that in the next few years, China's economic growth rate of decline in certain circumstances, even taking into account the increase in government consumption expenditure, income structural adjustment, income growth is very difficult to achieve substantial growth.
Can not be underestimated for years and will continue to maintain the negative effects of rapid growth in investment, China's economy may experience a downward adjustment.
(2) a reasonable valuation is not a sufficient condition for a strong market, the lack of growth is the most deadly
China's current level of the stock market's overall price-earnings ratio (on the card 50 and at 15-16 times earnings in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300) has been close to or below the level of mature market countries (the United States S & P 500 was 18.9-fold, the United Kingdom FTSE 250 is 16-fold), If we consider the right price, accounting for A-share market nearly 2 / 3 of the market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300's price-earnings ratio has fallen below the Hang Seng Mainland Composite Index. Thus it was that the current level of China's stock market valuations are more reasonable. Leaving aside whether such a relatively reasonable price-earnings ratio (because there is a system of corporate governance risk and the risk discount), but the inference that the market is currently at the bottom of the region, and gradually start a new bull market, according remained inadequate.
The reason is: Whether it is broad market continued to decline in more than four years, or the overall price-earnings ratio is close to a mature market, will only show that China's stock market valuation is moving towards a reasonable value range, and can not infer that China's stock market bullish. China's stock market to really take the cattle, the answer can only be based on listed companies tradable on the platform growth.
First, the split share structure reform has brought a revolution in full circulation. The most direct effect of stock reform is to reduce the outstanding shares of shareholders holding costs, increasing market liquidity may be, if the stock market fell more than four years and the share reform resulted in the value of the stock market return, then the full circulation to establish the platform for the company will be further assessed the value of providing a market-oriented platform for rationalization.
Second, a reasonable valuation of the market-oriented platform, only the growth of listed companies is the decision of whether the stock market take a decisive factor in cattle. The impact on growth of three main factors: First, macroeconomic trends; 2 is a listed company's performance and growth; third, the company's own internal governance and management behavior variations. Although the unification of all tradable shareholders base, but it is because of this, major shareholders of listed companies, executives may be alienated behavior will lead to a violation from the non-tradable under a form of aggression towards the other - the stock price under asymmetric information infringement.
(3) Based on the value of constant pressure on the basis of expansion
Although the large expansion does not necessarily mean a bear market, but in a bear market in the expansion of the market is bound to cause great pressure. The next two to three years, facing the expansion of China's stock market is far from being fully aware of the market, the real expansion of the peak in 2008 to 2009, but the previous expansion of the pressure can not be ignored, to November 30, 2006, and has completed stock reform of the 159 companies listed on stock liquidity than the pre-reform increase of 40% or more. In addition, the new and old draw up the rear facing the expansion of new shares are under great pressure. Judging from the current shares of the provinces have announced the timetable for reform of view, the vast majority concentrated in the 2006 2 to 3 months, this can not be a coincidence. The old and new estimates will be drawn down the first two quarters of 2006, the latest no later than 51 holiday launch of Sinopec to start share reform will be a weathervane.
â—?has completed the share reform of the company's expansion
As of November 30 the completion of the share reform of the 159 companies, of which just 138 Major Holders of the company, accounting for 86.79% of the sample companies, the average Major Holders ratio of 3.34 shares per 10 shares to send; Major Holders and additional programs ( including cash, warrants, capital fund Zhuanzeng etc.) 12, the proportion of the total sample were 7.55%; capital fund Zhuanzeng (with attached warrants) there are five, the proportion of the total sample were 3.14%, other programs (including Su Gu, asset replacement, etc.) there are four, accounting for the sample compared to 2.52%.
â—?The company's ongoing share reform
As of November 30, in the ongoing share reform of the 138 companies, which purely Major Holders of the 114 companies, accounting for 82.61% of the sample companies, the average Major Holders ratio of 2.98 shares for every 10 shares to send, far less than the Major Holders company to complete a simple 3.34 shares.
Of course, as a minimum percentage of shareholding and management may be introduced restrictive policies, the actual expansion of the pressure is not as big as in theory, but should not overlook the state-owned economic restructuring and orderly advance and retreat of the strategic arrangement of the expansion process, the impact of , expansion pressure should not be ignored.
(4) new from the old hard to become a new starting point for a bull market
New from the old market trends will be a watershed, has been the market are generally concerned about my personal view that hopes new from the old desire to promote a strong market is doomed to fall. Judging from the current point of view, new from the old start and the possibility of superposition of macro-economic decline is being increased, new issues of the diversion of funds huge expansion pressure and lack of growth and decided to take some time before the market bullish.
(5) market tend to focus more on immediate opportunities, while ignoring the risk of distant
Last warrants transaction reflects our focus on this market are often more immediate opportunities, and the risk of ignoring the distance. Although we can not say that the market is wrong, but investors will eventually be some people who bear the necessary cost. In a widespread lack of speculative credit market environment, the individual's rational behavior are often more easily lead to collective irrationality, individual rationality and the current system copulate together, decided to conduct short-term investors. A real insight into the opportunities to move beyond a certain market, those few who favored by God, from the value of the main and pure speculation before the arrival of the deadline might not be maintained, however, return the value of the road is doomed, although T +0 for Each one offered investors the opportunity to escape, but the outcome is doomed, as we all try to win the price difference in the carnival warrants, in the carnival coming to an end, the warrants will follow one after another level, returned to earth from heaven. Is the so-called "How to indicate how the beginning of the end."
Hot Articles Latest articles in 2006 Overview of the hot industry sector strategy for next year's Big Buzz Shenglang large organizations: G Unit, Three Musketeers tripod Properties: six new combat strategy warrants real strategy for large organizations tomorrow report of the daily combat Nuggets Daily Nuggets report actual
* Full disclosure: in 2006 Top Ten brokerage industry in 2006 Highway Investment Strategy Investment Strategy 2006: Focus on four major factors that speculation may be subject Denver real restoration of the daily report of the daily run-off, 16 days old Gong Lue -12 body combat strategy for tomorrow
