Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-05-30
Tape the short term is likely to maintain the current high volatility of the situation, the uncertain market outlook of new information will determine the future direction of the stock market. In such a state, if you want to obtain excess returns, the best strategy is to play down the index, selection of individual stocks. We recommend investors to invest in the following four major topics, select individual stocks. Investment Theme 1: RMB appreciation The RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform, the RMB appreciation was the overall trend. For the moment, the RMB appreciation on China's industrial upgrading has already begun to play a role. We are optimistic about high-value-added manufacturing and services growth potential products, as well as capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries in the appreciation of the renminbi under the growth. Proposes a focus on finance, real estate, commerce, machinery, bio-pharmaceuticals, transportation, public utilities and other industries.
Economic growth and the yuan appreciation will contribute directly to the financial industry. In the long term, the financial sector and economic size and profit levels is closely related to the appreciation of the yuan to upgrade the industrial structure through the promotion, will further promote the growth of the industry. In addition, the RMB appreciation, the banking system to increase the supply of funds, the banks profit growth increased; In addition, the securities industry, capital supply will also increase due to appreciation of economic operations, both investment banking and investment operations will have a positive impact. In contrast, we like the background of a financial holding group, a better ability to control financial risks, China Merchants Bank and the G CITIC G's long-term development; the same time, we are also optimistic about the growth of G livelihood.
While the revaluation of foreign currency translation effects of the mechanical industry, a certain degree of short-term negative impacts; but the long term, the RMB appreciation will increase the added value of machinery industry, with independent innovation and technical superiority of the listed companies will benefit. The next five years, China's equipment manufacturing industry in the CNC machine tools, a large petrochemical complete sets of equipment, air-cooled thermal power equipment, heavy-duty mining equipment, etc. will achieve breakthroughs in the field, while high-speed railway and urban rail transit facilities, large vessels and accessories, agricultural machinery will also be given rapid development.
On the real estate industry, supporting multiple levels of industry demand factors, such as urbanization, promoting employment and consumption structure, the pulling effect on the housing industry will have a long-term. Industry in the next five years will be maintained for slightly less than the demand trend. Therefore, the benefit from the land value-added real estate company valuations will be more stable.
Investment Theme 2: Periodic bottom of the The power industry is clearly at the bottom of the cycle. There are indications that a second coal linkage can actively look forward to. It is reported that coal linkage Development and Reform Commission has submitted its proposal to the State Department, Chongqing coal linkage program has also been submitted to Development and Reform Commission, the second coal linkage is very likely launch in the second quarter is expected to rise an average of about 1 minute. In addition, the power industry, coal cost pressures declined significantly relative to the 2004,2005 years, although the pressure still exists, but has enough to make the power industry's profitability level from the third quarter of 2005, out of the inflection point. If the Internet price increase 0.01 yuan / kwh or more, the power company's profitability will continue to show an upward trend to resume sex. G proposes a focus on long-electricity, electricity and other utilities class title listed companies.
Investment Theme 3: mergers, restructuring With the split share structure reform, the deepening of China's securities market will eventually complete the listing of shares tradable, which is part of the company's restructuring plan the implementation of the merger created a favorable market environment; the same time, the split share structure reform, there are ongoing beneficial as a means of market allocation of resources to play its role more effectively, so the acquisition, merger and restructuring activities will be increasingly active. In the stock restructuring process, M & A market will bring many new trading opportunities, so re-acquired the ancestral theme will also be A-share market in 2006 continued a hot spot. In 2006, the A-share market, PetroChina, Sinopec privatization is already underway, although the causes of privatization is far beyond the stock reform, more extent, in order to integrate resources to address the intra-industry competition to address the related-party transactions, enhance the market value, etc. it must be recognized, from split share structure reform of the urgent need to accelerate the industry consolidation of the A-share market M & A process.
We lamented that the whole and Sinopec Yangzi Petrochemical, Qilu Petrochemical companies, an enormous opportunity for investors, while aluminum should pay close attention to the Department of enterprise merger integration expected to arbitrage opportunities may arise. The recent announcement of aluminum, said: Aluminum shareholders of the General Assembly approved this year will bring 1.5 billion shares in Shanghai Stock Exchange A share issue plans, once the A share issue of aluminum to start plans for the privatization of its related companies has become inevitable, the game in the circulation Shareholders will be in a good position. For the privatization of enterprises in the aluminum line, Shandong Aluminum Industry, Lanzhou Aluminum and Jiaozuo Wanfang should take an active interest. In addition, weapons and equipment the Group's large car system has also opened a whole and the prelude to, weapons and equipment the Group will consolidate its number of listed companies, Sinopec's acquisition of a similar theme, it is worth focusing on.
Investment Theme 4: dividends, Major Holders The published annual report to see, as of March 29, launched more than 10 rides, five large-scale Major Holders of the company has 18 programs, for this theme, attention should be given a higher growth stocks, high-growth with the right to Shares may be out of the right to grab market, such as the G livelihood, G marine engineering, G Zhenhua, G Ha tungsten, etc.; In addition, even after ex from a valuation perspective, the future high-growth stocks are still making these to become the inevitable trend of the Tian Quan . Similarly, the small plate to send the stock is a high concentration of share transfer, some growth stocks have the advantage, such as the China Branch of biological and so on, is expected to receive financing concerns.
