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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Remains bullish on blue chips
Dacheng Qu Yun Li 2020 Fund Manager
While the broad market to double in 2006, but the two cities are still in a bull market early. In 2007 is still a lot of opportunities, but the key is to choose the right stocks, and learn to cover their shares.
From the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets current situation, the overall valuation of blue chips are still on the low side, but the adoption of new funding to explore, now clearly undervalued blue chip stocks have certainly running out. It is gratifying that, in the capital-myeon, expansion at the same time, blue-chip listed companies will also be big expansion, such as the Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway, China Life, China's oil and other blue-chip companies are accelerating landing A-share market, which undoubtedly will greatly ease the shortage of blue-chip contradiction.
Therefore, the recent two years, the two cities a serious blue-chip bubble is unlikely. In addition, when compared with the three-line stock and needed to spend a lot of time and energy to argue, and Jiancang volume is very limited.
In addition, the small companies a great uncertainty, the investment is correspondingly increased the probability of error, which is generally favored agencies of big blue chips lies.
In the plate also has two opportunities. First of all, it is estimated banking stocks, while real estate stocks still have some upside, but obviously can not expect more than this year; Secondly, the auto stocks and steel stocks should have opportunities to show, as the two old Golden Flower, which has not been a good performance for two years , in particular, now the growing popularity of the domestic automobile consumption, auto stocks are expected to usher in a new round of increase in performance cycle, and its current valuation is significantly lower.
Do not worry index fell
10000 Paris, Shen Chang-Yong-tao new impetus to the fund managers
In 2007 the pattern of market diversification will be more apparent differentiation between individual stocks will increase. With the ability to diversify investment and professional investment experience of the fund will become the market mainstream investors, leading investment philosophy throughout the A shares.
Although the stock continued to hit new high, but we think a lot of investors in the fall-over-worried about the market outlook is actually unnecessary. In terms of international experience, the economy and the stock market itself, to think, or from the current situation and future development to consider, the long-term bull market trend in China's securities market and the basis has been formed, so a new record high stock will continue to be refreshed. For the majority of investors, only the macro-economic and stock market participation is necessary to enjoy high-growth brought about good returns.
Next year, we will be closely linked to earnings valuation pairs of upgrading the theme. Specifically, attention will be focused on the advantages of industry, high-quality companies who, due to trends in the economy has made it clear, high-quality advantage of the industry's continued profitability and growth will be reflected, performance would be the certainty of long-term growth market acceptance , the valuation levels would be enhanced accordingly. These companies will be the long-term focus of the object, such as Wuliangye, Tong Ren Tang, OCT, Sinopec, China Minsheng Banking, the Yangtze River and electric power.
Next year is the golden period of growth, the stock market
An advantage of the League of Nations Allianz fund manager Li Hongbo
China's stock market in 2007 will be the golden period of growth. First of all, Chinese companies increase profit margins can be expected; secondly, to bring investment in China's population structure, golden age.
The golden period of growth in the stock market and investment advantages of continuity of the scarcity of enterprises will be sustained excess returns can be focused on four major dominant enterprises: including resources and management strengths and channel advantages and technological advantages.
On specific industries, machinery and electrical equipment due degree of macro-economic boom continued, especially in grid investment and engineering construction demand-pull, it is worth bullish; manufacturing of communications equipment manufacturing and computer hardware and software, respectively 3G and industry growth, the should be bullish; in food and beverage and commercial enterprises can still rely on the advantages of personal income growth and consumption to upgrade the background, by managing to expand market share, achieve sustained growth, should be optimistic.
In addition, the degree of the chemical industry boom has lasted for two years, but the basic supply and demand relationship has not changed, valuation attractive, promising to improve the company's refining margins; optimistic about growth prospects in the financial sector in a clear bank.
Optimistic about the three major investment themes
When the subject industry, fund managers, Bo Zhan Ling Wei
This year, the stock market has maintained rapid growth. From the time point of view, from the second half and gradually expose the clear industry characteristics, financial services, real estate, as the main line of this bull run feature becoming increasingly apparent. For the next year's stock market development, we believe that earnings growth with the support of the valuation of the future A-share market will continue to raise the level of appreciation of the yuan, infrastructure investment and consumption in the three major investment themes worthy of attention.
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China is the most important trends in the appreciation of the RMB. The trade surplus and rising foreign exchange reserves in the context of a substantial appreciation of the yuan is no longer the suspense, the yuan will continue to enhance the value of the assets. Therefore, stocks of assets, especially in banking, real estate will become the mainstream of the current round of bull breeds. Meanwhile, in order to better achieve the social and economic harmony, change the mode of production, improve the technological level of Chinese investment in infrastructure will usher in a climax, in which the bulk of future investment in infrastructure, driven by the performance of cyclical industry will continue to be significantly growth, and become the focus of configuration varieties in 2007.
In addition, the consumption of long-term future upgrade will be the theme. Demographic changes, urbanization accelerated, the rise of consumer awareness, consumer empowerment and China to enter the consumer transition to ensure that consumer demand is steady and rapid growth momentum, consumer stocks will therefore continue to grow.
"Demographic dividend" boost the long-term bull market
China Shipping Peng Yan Bao, director of fund investment:
From an economic point of view, 35 -54 age structure, known as the "golden age." According to the World the experience of other countries and regions, "golden age" of the total percentage of change will national savings, consumption and commodity prices have a significant impact, and then change the country's economic landscape. The corresponding period of the history of baby boom, China has entered the era of demographic dividend, which is what we often say the demographic dividend. Is expected to 2010, China's demographic dividend will continue to promote the long-term stock market higher.
Based on the above analysis, we determine the greatest opportunities for investment in 2007 will come from asset injection and the overall market.
In addition, the Olympic Games and 3G are also two great space, investment theme. Recommendations can be taken to dumbbells investment strategy known as "small-cap growth + tape blue-chip" investment strategies, the first top-down, select the blue-chip portfolio of broad market as the benchmark positions; and then bottom-up, tap the ability to grow high-quality continuing to grow companies to obtain excess returns.
The main line in the investment, the yuan appreciation and consumption of the preferred concept should mainly be concentrated in the banking, securities, real estate, insurance, pharmaceutical, retail, food and beverage, tourism, media and other fields; the second best concept of technological innovation, mainly in electrical equipment, machinery , telecommunications equipment, special equipment and other fields.
Utilities will become the bull market hero
10000 utility fund manager Zhang Xun
2007 A-share market will be in a balanced state of shock strength adjustment, public utilities sector in 2007 is expected to become the protagonist of the structural bull market.
This wave began in mid-2005 asset revaluation the main line of the large level Quotes a full up more than 1000 points, the current A-share market has grown from less than 15 times the mid-2005, the static price-earnings ratio rose to more than 25 times the current dynamic price-earnings ratio . Although China's macro-economic steady growth, yuan appreciation of China's securities market and other factors will lead to a long-term bullish, but that does not mean the long-term bullish on the stock market in 2007 is too optimistic about the development process of the bull market also needs the necessary rest. In the short term trends, experiencing explosive growth in 2006, after 2007 will appear in the structural characteristics of the bull market to maintain a balance between a strong shock to adjust the pattern.
In the current market valuation at a reasonable level of overall situation, the future Quotes of the plates should be a valuation adjustment of China's stock market sector rotation is a long-term phenomenon, public utilities sector in 2007 is expected to become the protagonist of the structural bull market.
Statistics show that the public utility industry as a whole 16 times earnings, discount is quite obvious. In addition, China's public utilities in relation to Europe and the United States developed countries, is still in the rising cycle. If we consider the utility of next year there will be 15% to 25% performance increase and other factors, the dynamic price-earnings ratio will be lower.
The securities industry will expand 10 times
Southern positive Allocation Fund Manager Jiang Wentao
In 2007, the need to focus on the changes in the economic structure under the investment opportunities. Because the root of the economic structure changes in the demographic structure changes, so the direction of a clear, sustained for a long time with great investment value.
In this context, consumption growth and upgrades will be a golden opportunity in 2007, while upgrading the manufacturing industry is the opportunity of silver in 2007. The next three years, securities, machinery, banking, real estate, business, food and beverage, pharmaceutical industry, earnings growth is likely to exceed the average level of listed companies.
As for the highlights of each of these sectors, we expect the securities industry, the size of the next five years, the industry is expected to expand 10 times; and the banking industry will continue to enhance customer value; the real estate sector will show a large industry, small lead, the market share of central tendency; branded consumer products will enter the period of rapid growth; chain business will occur within the extension of the rapid growth of Health Canada, while the medicine is a high margin industry, the demand will face the acceleration of growth.
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