Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-02-16
Source: Beijing in the first place Author: Zhuang Tao
Yinxian four in a row, the Shanghai Composite Index closed the month out of the K-line video Yinxian, this is the first time since November last year, closed out the entities Yinxian (March closed out the upper and lower shadow cross star), which is means that half a year long campaign started a respite? Quotes the next August, the choice of what investment strategy is the best option?
Subscription of new shares began in June, sparking a market separate ways with the active participation of funds, purchase money is also a powerful wave of Bobby last week, the unfreezing of funds of up to 810 billion yuan, accounting for about half the market value in circulation, while the stock is still a shock downstream, we can see a market capitalization of thawing does not mean the flow of the secondary market, this and previous markets unfreeze billions of dollars every rise in the secondary market, contrary to the law. The main reason what is it?
After statistics have been released from the listing of eight new shares for earnings perspective, the annual subscription of new shares consolidated return rate = initial public offering or × in the success rate × purchase frequency, the current eight IPOs on average by about 50%, with an average success rate in the about 0.7%, annual purchase frequency of once per week, 50 times or so, then the new share subscription annual rate of return of funds is expected to reach about 17% is already far exceeding the one-year benchmark deposit rate and loan interest rates, but also much higher than 85% listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen over the net return on assets, that is, to pay the cost of annual deposit interest rate situation, risk-free rate of return of the subscription of new shares, much higher than lending to the corporate income and invest the proceeds. No wonder more and more and more money to see this no-risk, high-yield arbitrage form, the same as herding, flocking together to the primary market.
In addition, the consumption of themes, concepts and other fund Shigekura military hot spots, has been a lot of the market view that the valuation is reasonable and even some over-estimated, such as Suning Appliance to 122 times the dynamic price-earnings ratio, G XAC has reached 68 times, big business Shares reached a 34-fold. While the statistical decline in July is up, G-bin can be, G friendship, G TISCO, G Tianwei, Hongdu aviation group of funds among the top decliners Shigekura species into the stock, have more than 20% decline. From these stocks form of K-line point of view, most of the trend from a high level callback, the callback there is no end in sight, it is likely this trend will continue in August. At present, the secondary market is still in Fanyunfuyu are those active idle capital, G Jinfeng, Baoguang shares, Wuhan Plastics, G Tian-bao and other re-theme, but it is difficult to see him in such stocks funds, brokers and actively make more silhouette.
So the lower the market valuation of the varieties are there to make money whether the effects of it? Whether it is not stock reform Sinopec, hovering near the net assets of the G Unicom, the price is far below the company's holdings of G-long electricity, or has it upside down, and H share price Bank of China, at current prices have been relatively cheap, it should be there is room to rise. But, judging from the market, and each time the collective index stocks rise, not only became the other day, the stock sell-off gathered and trigger index fell, but shares of the four indicators have also been in the subsequent sell-off. This fully shows that the market opportunities in the use of funds flee.
At the same time, we see that the various authorities of the study of the four indexes Unit as a reasonable position, away from the current price of the room it was in between 10-20%, and the risk-free subscription of new shares is almost the same compared to earnings even should be lower. If such market characteristics do not change, then there is the secondary market will be difficult to make money effect in August will be pulled out of the market is also more money to purchase new shares.
On the whole, in the August market trends continue to adjust the pattern of macroeconomic policy areas may be introduced to further control measures. According to the market trend, after a crash stabilized after early August will once again be brewing stock rebound, but the rebound in limited space, and the rebound is the opportunity to lighten up. While maintaining the current pace of issuing new shares, the last phase of the rising power shortage, the market outlook should not be blindly optimistic.
Therefore, since the main varieties of market adjustment of waves are running, then a risk-free high-yield market should not be abandoned. From this, the message does not appear significant changes in surface prior to radical follow the hot money investors can participate in put warrants, and market short-term hot spots, and because new shares would be prudent investors, the optimal strategic choice.
