Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-11-07
Main points of view: Since 2005 in the second half of this theory of Quotes is now drawing to a close, the market index will begin in mid-April to enter the callback stage, the duration of 2-3 months. To 6 month or so, the market peak in re-financing of the basic end, IPOs brought under the influence of high-quality stocks will re-enter the higher stage. Specific analysis is as follows
First, expansion about to start, market pressures
The current market value of the two cities to complete share reform and home number are nearly 60%, re-financing and IPO launch has been the conditions, the recent reform, there are many stocks make additional applications for G Unit, refinancing is expected to be four mid to late start, The IPO is expected to be completed in Sinopec shares of reform before it is launched. Expansion from the diversion of funds and Bijiaxiaoying two markets in terms of repression, for large funds, the current phase of reduction of their shares, waiting for new stock issuance and the IPO investment opportunities in emerging wiser.
Second, a greater impact on the market, the weight of plate generally faced with the pressure of short-term callback
1, petrochemical plate: good cash, short-term need to callback order, medium-term remains optimistic about
By the end of 2005 started the current round of Quotes that one of the main Toronto Canada, led by Sinopec's petrochemical plate, and as of early April, Sinopec Yangzi Petrochemical, Qilu Petrochemical, etc., as well as by the end of March completion of repurchase of refined oil price increases to be honored , so that the lack of fossil plate further rise in short-term momentum, short-term modest turnaround was inevitable.
The same time, the SASAC has said that Sinopec will be the end of April early May proposed share reform program, when shares of Sinopec will enter a phase of reform to suspend the market in the absence of Sinopec this Dinghaishenzhen, expansion started working together, the market will be short-term callback .
Midline point of view, China's refined oil market is facing the opening, the future prices of refined oil products will be fully with international standards will enhance the domestic oil refining and downstream gas station's profit margins. Sinopec's share reform in April before the suspension is still an opportunity to intervene, through the finished product oil price increase measure the performance of the contribution of Sinopec is expected in October or so refined a further rise in oil prices before and after the share price of Sinopec is expected to reach 5.3-5.6 million, have been benefits of space about 30%. Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical plates have not yet integrated and Yizheng Chemical Fiber is expected to be from August to October were in the petrochemical consolidation will occur in June about the opportunity to intervene.
2, banking segments: the central bank raised the deposit reserve increased pressure on shares of listed Chinese banks will soon, it will constitute a short-term pressure on shares of domestic banks, medium and long term are still resolutely optimistic.
The central bank earlier this year set in 2006 of monetary policy objectives are: broad money supply M2 increased by 16%, the narrow money supply M1 increased by 14%, the year of new loans of 2.5 trillion yuan. The latest financial data from this year show that as of the end of two, the broad money supply M2 stood at 30.45 trillion yuan, up 18.8%, higher than the 16% target. To ensure that this year 16% of the M2 target does not appear large bias, the central bank is necessary to control it. At present, the effect of open market operations to gradually weaken, raising the reserve ratio as the intensity of the largest to be used again in a move more likely.
As to whether the timing can be shot, it definitely has to wait until the San Siyue copies of the financial data used as reference, meaning the earliest it was not until 5-6 months before any action. If you really want to move the central bank deposit reserve ratio, due to a large number of listed banks to hold bonds, short-term interest rate policy at higher risk. Regardless of whether the central bank raised the deposit reserve the final 4-May bank shares there heart surface uncertainty, short-term, if not dropped, they can hardly increase.
On the other hand, several Chinese banks planned from May to September shares listed in Hong Kong, focused, and domestic listed banks due to lack of core capital adequacy ratio, but also widespread and urgent financing needs, it will constitute a short-term pressure on bank shares.
Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, ICBC and other forthcoming in mid-2006 release one after another in Hong Kong listing in order to pursue the interests of foreign investors to make room, it is highly likely to lower prices once again staged release, short-term domestic bank stocks will inevitably constitute a linkage pressure. We recall that in 2005, and China Construction Bank Bank of issue, the listing date is June 23, issue price of 2.5 Hong Kong dollars, the Hang Seng Index at 14200 points. Hang Seng Index rose one and a half months after the unilateral and 8 months, up 1,300 points, cross-line from the opening 2.8 yuan rose to 3.4 yuan. China Construction Bank issued pricing is almost exactly the same, in October 2005 during the China Construction Bank issued the Hang Seng Index fell to 14200 from 15500 points, points, down 1,300 points, complete listing of China Construction Bank issued Day is October 27, 2005, the Hang Seng Index 14200 points, the lowest in October 28, 2005, but after the listing of China Construction Bank, Hang Seng Index rose by more than two months of unilateral, up 1800 points, rose to 16,000 points. China Construction Bank choose to tape the end of fall when the issuance and listing of Bank of choice is a breakthrough in the broader market will rise substantially all long-time bureau issued. It can be seen that foreign institutions in the state-owned enterprise issued by the timing of the really "just right": Let the state-owned shares were sold at the low stage of the bull market.
At a time when the Bank of China, China Merchants Bank listed in Hong Kong sprint stage, Hong Kong stocks may be reproduced depress market prices, in the Bank of China, China Merchants Bank completed its listing until the stock is difficult domestic banks rose slightly to follow the H shares may be a larger drop.
Midline point of view, with the complete listing of bank shares, the domestic bank's core capital adequacy ratio will be greatly enhanced, the banking sector will usher in another period of rapid growth, in the appreciation of the renminbi, the financial services industry in the second half will reduce the sales tax impact of the multiple positive 6-July under the bank stock will be again an excellent opportunity for intervention, the central line up a great space.
3, the real estate segments: the short-term yuan appreciation is expected to have been fried too far, need to callback, medium and long term is still bullish.
Japan and Taiwan's experience shows that currency appreciation of the stock market to promote cattle, of which the most obvious benefit from real-estate stocks. However, this phenomenon in China's stock market may be difficult to reproduce. In this regard because the yuan are still under strict control; 2 is the sharp appreciation over China's interest. RMB to appreciate too, although you can attract capital inflows, but the result of the appreciation of the Chinese economy will also be very destructive and will eventually be reflected in economic growth, especially in the decline in investment and consumption in the current shortage of difficulties, the appreciation of impact will be magnified. Economy has been suppressed, capital will soon be out, causing fluctuations in the economy rose. Management can not allow this to happen, it will not allow large-scale inflows of international hot money, which is why the recent management has been pushing for the yuan decompression, such as QDII, change the "lenient entry, stringent exit" foreign exchange policy, the Tibetan Department the people and so on, rather than letting the yuan appreciate.
At the same time the policy side of the recent information is also worthy of our vigilance, Xinhua News Agency March 26 broadcast entitled "The vigilance boom was the huge risk" Xinhua Commentary. Commented that: Recently, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences published in 2006 "China City Competitiveness Report" was causing widespread concern. Report argues that high real estate prices will affect cities in the upgrading of competitiveness has become a major constraining China's current economic problems. The report believes that the current 35 major cities, the majority of the city's real estate market unhealthy. Commented that, housing prices, the negative impact should not be underestimated. Therefore, the short-term real estate industry, there are some uncertainties.
Midline point of view, the continued modest appreciation of the yuan, international hot money inflows, China's economy to continue its rapid growth, the Olympic Games, World Expo held Deng Jun of real estate constitutes a support, it is worth holding the center line.
Third, the market liquidity situation analysis
Stocks in different stages of change in market turnover, is the main trend of the market to track key indicators, by reviewing the history of every one market, one can find the internal laws of the market: that is, from the obvious low point at the bottom of the market pulled up to a phase of high turnover in the fundamental is equal to a high point of this stage from the beginning to the final confirmation of a high shock down the location of the turnover, that is, the transfer of chips from low to high, and change hands at a high level process:
1. "5.19" Quotes in May 17, 1999 the lowest point to June 30, 1999 high turnover of 637.6 billion, while the July 1, 1999 to 1999, Clear Platform September 30 order turnover for the 652 billion, the ratio close to 1:1, followed by stock index declined to confirm the head Po Wei;
2. Tape from the 2245-point drop, see a rebound after a low point in 1339: January 29, 2002 1339 pm to March 12, 2002 (the majority of individual stocks high) turnover of 235.2 billion in 2002, March 12 th to April 10, 2002 rebound high turnover of 243.1 billion, the basic is also the completion of a 1:1 change hands, down at the top to confirm (that followed the suspension caused by state-owned shares, "6.24" Quotes);
3.2003 years, the most operational value for the rally: November 13, 2003 the lowest point of 1307 Dao February 10, 2004, "Country 9" feel good came out of most mainstream plate peak of 840.3 billion turnover in the region, while in 2004 two 11 to April 15, 2004 marked a high platform, below 1700 points, 841 billion, and trading volume is a 1:1 relationship between changing hands, followed by the long decline for many bargain-hunting of the "bull market vision by" dashing of blood and tears;
4. July 12 last year, the lowest point of 1004 to August 18 1201 phase of high turnover of 298.7 billion, while the August 19 to September 21 marked decrease in turnover Powei 289.8 billion, two-stage transaction volume ratio is 1:1. After the apparent decline.
Again look at the current round of Statistics Quotes Market Turnover features:
First of all, from October 28, 2005 1067 points (1223 points, since the Shanghai Composite Index to adjust the lowest point, but not the majority of individual stocks of the lowest point) to February 7, 2006 (market most of the stocks to a high area) Turnover Statistics for the 559 billion; Secondly, from November 16, 2005 1075 points (Shenzhen into a means to adjust the lowest point) to February 7, 2006 to 471.5 billion turnover statistics; again, from December 6, 2005 1074 points ( Shenzhen Composite Index to adjust the lowest point, most stocks the lowest point) to February 7, 2006 turnover of 389.4 billion.
At present, from February 8, 2006 to March 27 to 396.8 billion turnover statistics. Simply calculated: 559 billion -3968 100 million = 162.2 billion; 471.5 billion -3968 100 million = 74.7 billion.
As can be seen, if December 6, 2005 1074 points, the starting point for statistics, which already have stocks in last Friday to build a top of the request, as in the November 16, 2005 or October 28, 2005 for statistical starting point, the market can also be high in shock heavy volume roughly 75000000000-165000000000 level, then, given the present day, the level of turnover of more than 100 billion estimate, the next 6-14 trading days to be completed this high level for change hands , which suggests that we should remain vigilant.
4, since March 2006 should be focused on investment opportunities in
1,4-5 month to focus on put warrants, roads and pharmaceutical defense industry, Sinopec shares the opportunity to reform
2,6-7 months to focus on banking, in the petrochemical industry, issuing new shares, 3G licenses, the opportunity
3 end of the year to focus on banking, real estate section and so benefit from the opportunities for change in accounting policy
