Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-08-20
The Shanghai Composite Index between 1300-1350 points, is under heavy pressure from the weekly technical indicators, K-line, RSI, KDJ and other indicators have appeared signs of departure from the top. We expect the second quarter, the market will be ascribed to drop in periodically to adjust, the market's core area should be 1200-1350 points.
Stock market value has been changed to 2 / 3, China Unicom and Sinopec to complete share reform after the split share structure reform will be taken off the stage. "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" requirement to improve the proportion of direct financing of enterprises, the market is difficult financing of long delays, we expect 4-5 months there should be substantial progress. Once the floodgates of direct financing, it will result in greater pressure on market funds.
Bound heavy investment in fixed assets, exports also affected by the appreciation of the renminbi, the troika pulling effect on the economy is weakening. The PPI and CPI continued to lower, on corporate performance caused great repression. In 2005 losses of loss-making state-owned enterprises amounted to a new high since 1998.
According to notice, and has already been published in 2005 on performance, performance of listed companies fell a foregone conclusion. April will be the peak of underperformance as the disclosure of the annual report.
Macroeconomic: down hard to avoid Weakened the role of the troika pulling Stimulate economic growth fueled mainly by investment, exports and consumption. Judging from the current situation, the pulling effect of these three factors will decline.
First, look at fixed asset investment, which is the most critical factor in stimulating the economy. Since 2005, fixed asset investment growth rate remained stable, 1-2 year growth rate reached 26.6% in the month, although somewhat lower than last year in the second half, but it has increased over the same period last year. Investment in fixed assets to maintain high growth rate is due to: Last year, investment in the first half of a number of important provinces and cities had fallen, the local became louder and louder, leading to credit, land crossings have been relaxed, resulting in early cessation of defers a number of projects re-launched, stimulating investment in recovery. However, the upfront investment in high-growth, resulting in energy and raw materials in short supply, the rising costs of investment in fixed assets; the same time, high-intensity of investment has led to excess capacity, the result is lower prices and corporate profits decline, the investment rate of return decline, and then from the market point of view of the decline in investment. Thus, in the current economic situation, do not support the investment in fixed assets continued to remain high. The relationship between market supply and demand suppression of the investment will eventually become the dominant factor affecting investment, and investment will fall back to the original track to.
Meanwhile, the yuan's continued appreciation of the negative impact on exports has emerged. Troika, only the consumption remained stable, exports have declined, while the decline in investment in fixed assets is only a matter of time, overall, macroeconomic adjustment in the inevitable trend.
Economic benefit is more worrisome Our previous report has analyzed that, PPI will continue to decline will have a negative impact on enterprise efficiency. In fact, the consumer goods price index has been negative growth in the state. Moreover, since the investment in fixed assets remained at a high level to the current production capacity, continued rapid growth, product oversupply will not only continue to maintain, or even may worsen; while CPI has fallen to near three-year low Under the influence of these factors is expected that the downward trend in PPI in the short term difficult to halt.
Performance of listed companies From the 582 companies in 2005 notice of the annual performance of the situation, the Pre-losing drop to the pre-366, and Yu Ying, only 216 pre-increase. 2004 Annual Report, Pre-losing companies that pre-reduction is only 260, while growing up Yu Ying pre-332. Comparison point of view, the performance of listed companies in 2005 the downward trend is obvious.
To the end of March, nearly half of the company annual reports, and more than half of the company's annual report will be released in April, these companies have 30% of the 2005 Annual Report is a loss, which will have a greater impact on the market.
In the second quarter investment strategy: run the tape for the 1200-1350 point range unfinished see next page Total 4 pages 1 [2] [3] [4]
