Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-01-25
Source: Wanguoceping
Friday market is being affected two sources continue to decline sharply, and the trend appears to adjust Su Liang, the first news is that the NPC Standing Committee approved by the State Council to stop reduction of interest tax decisions affect the day of the two cities restrict movement; second, news is that near the close, the market rumors, "SASAC, or state-owned shares will be issued on the transfer of important documents." , And this message is the market considered to be bad, I got to a rebound in the afternoon when the bankruptcy, according to Friday's close, after the article reported that net wealth of the East, "SASAC recently or will be issued to companies listed on the transfer of state-owned shares an important document, informed sources, may be is "the state-owned shares of listed companies, the transfer of interim management procedures," and supporting documents. As the "management approach" provisions of state-owned enterprises within three years up to 5% reduction of state-owned shares, which makes it possible to sell the state-owned shares greatly reduced the flow of the entire market and effective unit will greatly reduced, so do not worry about selling state-owned shares of listed companies Zapan or worry about state-owned major shareholder of a large number of cash after the lift. ", according to reports we find that the market misunderstood this document mistakenly thought it was state-owned shares, in fact the content may be On the contrary limits the speed of state-owned shares, which in theory should be a positive, so the news next week, the official target, the market will carry out rectification of this misunderstanding, that is, there may be a rebound opportunity.
Trading day of 2007, an official at the halfway point, just look at the overall index, the market very much in line with our pre-made tape-quarter operating characteristic, this feature is: index correction and then started to rise a quarter of a quarter, then followed by consolidation, the first quarter of last year began. Index is basically the first quarter of this year, finishing a strong second quarter, rising stock market, in particular, look at the Shenzhen market index in the second quarter is the standard rise. According to this law three quarter of this year, we predict that consolidation will enter a weak market, due to policy of the Jacuzzi pressure, so we can see that a lot of individual stocks ahead of the arrival of the adjustment, that is, a lot of individual stocks from May 30 to begin. But the market is expected to be three-quarter will really set the trend adjustment, which is three in the third quarter to see the first reason for consolidation. From a market point of view, apparent that the market has become very fragile, and by the early non-sensitive to the bad become too sensitive to the current, so this shows the rapid cooling in market sentiment, the market temporarily in the irrational fear of the bad, and therefore support our three look at the second quarter, the reasons for consolidation. In the third quarter to see consolidation of the third reason is the current market access policies city, while recent policy is basically a control-based, then it also shows that the policy constitutes a Crimping face the market, will also need to be adjusted when the time in the third quarter; Article four reasons, the market is its own needs, market needs a respite, no need to twists and turns and orderly development of the bull market, after a wave of increases several times after the bursting of the market can not be said that there are many topics stocks price-earnings ratio is one hundred times, there are clearly a certain bubble, many individual stocks rose much more down that is a normal adjustment; careful analysis of recent market characteristics, we found that the recent sharp decline in the stock in particular, the recent decline in the stock is more than half of the first quarter of this year, the stock rose several times, so three quarters Quotes Quotes is a quarter of a symmetry: a quarter of the basic non-market index rose in the context of subject matter shares soaring market, in the third quarter is probably the basic non-market index dropped in the context of the process of share prices of topics, from the market characteristics of view, in fact, This phenomenon has arrived a month ahead of schedule. Therefore, we consider four factors, as well as the recent consolidation in the third quarter is likely to remain market, As for the range, depending on the specific content of the policy side. But we are underweight in the third quarter to four quarters are likely to rise next year, we believe that only three ingredients seasonally adjusted, and the back have a larger market, and we believe that the bull market is not over, is merely a form of relay adjustments are expected in the third quarter index will not be much above the drop, but at greater risk of individual stocks.
Operation, the near future, continue to control the position over the past two weeks, we put forward three strategies, the first is to control the position, and the second is to guard against the risk of individual stocks, especially small-cap stocks the risk of low-cost subjects, the third is the minimize operator. Market performance in recent two weeks of view, these three strategies can reduce the enormous losses. In July to continue to maintain these three strategies, small hot spots may increase in variety and the broad market performance of blue-chip in there.
