Category: Money tips Release Date: 2005-12-26
--- "New behavioral finance," one of the study
At present in Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share market has been a significant retail-oriented, individual investors to hold the flow of the market value of the ratio of 65%; in 2001, the highest point on a stock market, individual investors hold 89% of the flow of the market value, still implying that residents are ability to continue to buy stocks. Bank of household financial assets disclosure constitutes a show that in 2000, the securities assets and the ratio of 1:3 resident deposits, which was currently 1:4.5. If the securities assets to a third of resident deposits, which means residents in securities assets of 3.8 trillion from the current phase that 5.7 trillion.
Based on the current investors in the structure and balance of power, we adopted the analysis we can draw the following conclusions:
First, the short-term operation will lead to exponential increase in volume of A shares, brokerage business to explosive growth in the first quarter of this year, has risen 500% over same period last year. Focus on the concept of equity investment brokerage will be the first choice. Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, "national stock speculation" is really a rare phenomenon in the world. I have entrusted the auspices of the Shanghai Stock Exchange issues, "the China Securities investor behavior research", the conclusion is that the Chinese people too believe that short-term operation can make money, and too confident to beat the market, I believe that their own ability than others, coupled with the time of industrialization relatively short, social systems design and investors have not yet form a "trust" concept, that is their own doing a good job career work, are not familiar with the operational delivery and professional institutions. This American families to buy and hold a variety of the Fund's investment behavior varies greatly.
China Taiwan's stock market may arise in the course of the NT dollar appreciation, investors in retail and Quotes twists and turns of the history of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets can serve as a mirror. China Taiwan's stock market bull market began in 1985, before the residents of bank deposits to total market capitalization ratio of 1.6 times. Stock markets after the effect of making money, attracted by private funds rushed into the market, the end of 1989, shareholders accounts had reached five million, equivalent to the total population in Taiwan at that time about a quarter. Taiwan's stock market bubble from start to peak around 5 years of experience, during which they experienced several twists and turns, the degree quite dramatic. There are two-year period rose more than 6 folds, there are 3 months index plunged 50 percent, in February 1990, the Taiwan stock market to switch from cow Bear, the index fell to the lowest once the highest point of the "fraction", almost all investors stuck.
Market-oriented retail market volatility will increase. If the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share market in 4000 is not near sufficient to absorb short consolidation of power and a variety of negative comments over the impact of rapid rise of the stock market is bound to be pulled up short and the pressure groups, which may result in severe shock to the market all have been entered in the ring.
Earlier when I was invited to Wenzhou as "real estate speculators group" to provide financial advice, let me much surprise, investors will be open-end fund shares as a speculation, like the Shen subscription of new funds. If the old and the fund up, and quickly re-sold to buy a new fund, and some even sell the Fund's turn to trade in shares, while fund managers are forced to spend a lot of energy options to sell shares to meet redemption tide. Retail investors, the result of short-term operation Daobi body, resulting in organizational behavior of individual investors, which together with the retail market volatility increased.
Second, herding behavior will make the national policy and various stock market review, the impact of individual investment behavior will be growing under the premise of self-confidence to enter the market because investors will not in itself premised on performance and growth behavior of short-term operation and into trouble. There are new entrants that the warrants are cheap, they buy, due to the reverse operation, the results down the drain. Currently, some ST or * ST crazy stock market, is a typical case of short-term speculation. ST or * ST shares the majority of the long-term risk of loss or even facing delisting, but in retail Quotes, under any cheap stock, will be optimistic, and the prices will be not to "performance"'s will continuously forced up by speculation, which is really peculiar phenomenon in the history of the world's stock, has an urgent bad regulator.
A stock that the whole existence of a bubble, an increase in performance under the conditions I also will not be recognized; said the market from retail-oriented non-rational crazy speculation ST or * ST stocks are under the madness of a bubble of excessive behavior, I'd agree. The right to control public opinion and discourse of the media, government agencies and even norms will not agree with this completely divorced from the value of investment activities, and some economists even assert that this continues to harm themselves harm the country.
Third, the disposition effect may significantly lengthen Quotes callback time, its length will exceed the imagination. The so-called disposition effect, investors have on the profits and losses of the different disposition of the stock behavior, generally will be profitable stocks is often realized as soon as possible would be a loss of stock clutching. Results, performance or quality could have been a greater rise because many investors to sell stocks which depressed the increases, while the poor performance of retail investors in the stock but because the collective tight muffle to slow down the process of decline. Finally, when investors simply can not afford or do not, these are just up the stock, and finally determined to throw, these shares may be magic in the rebound increase in the investor anger vomiting blood.
The evolution of the stock market around 4000 points, I would venture to say, "4,000 points would also be possible within the next six months at the end of the iron, but to cross 4,000 points, investors must go through a longer period of tempering, the best situation is in 3800 -4.1 thousand there is continuous within the 44 trading days of repeated test of strength, so that 'hot on the''bubble theory' and 'mania' theories were depleted of energy. " The forecast is to examine the government, enterprises and investors the evolution of the triangular relationship and analyzes the China Securities investor psychology and behavioral characteristics of the results. Of course, even without government regulation and control policies, even critics of public opinion there is no momentum, investors will inevitably lead to acts of collective unconscious Quotes of the self-correcting, due to index of fetishism of the index caused by the psychological mark of fear, will inevitably lead to a collective investors disposition effect behavior. Because when the day 20 to 30 million new account holders to enter the market when all kinds of complex behavior are intertwined, short-term operation, herding behavior and disposition effect in the common role of the market.
As a leading retail fantasy stock market "pricing power", the pricing unconsciously transferred to the hands of a true value investor.
