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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Concerned about the bull market has not changed the pattern of opportunities for downstream industries
Tape emerged last week, a high rest, Thursday is a sharp drop in a single day down 163 points. This time, after more than one month after the plunge straight up type of adjustment, it is in line with the bull market of "slow up steep decline," the characteristics of this phenomenon has repeatedly appeared in the earlier period. After a continuous rise in the market after the fall can be achieved through the rapid concentration of the release of the risk effect.
Macroeconomic data released Thursday by the market interpreted as a delay may be introduced to suppress bad policy, and thus trigger the initiative adjustments. This is another later proved to be an excessive worries, after the broader market rose Youyi recover lost territory. One-quarter data showed economic growth is still very strong, from the market are most concerned about CPI and subsequent rate hikes and other austerity policy, led to the current commodity prices continued to rise late last year, the most important reason is that food and meat and poultry prices increased due to caused by hikes resulted, but the recent prices and meat prices have stopped rising momentum of continuous, in fact in March CPI growth rate has dropped the chain. Therefore, CPI growth rate might drop in the future, in March the month throughout the year CPI growth rate may be high. For the hike, we believe that although the existence of such a possibility, but with the growth rate may drop the price estimate, but of interest rate conditions are not ripe.
We believe that the basic pattern of the bull market, and there is no qualitative change. Abundant liquidity is still the most powerful drivers, A-share accounts still continue to create a new high, the enthusiasm of ordinary investors overwhelming. In the broader market plunged April 19, the day the fund accounts, has surged to 35 million in the previous trading day 5 times. Taking into account the recent, and there are no major new funds available, it may be investors in the fall, the enthusiastic wanted to close the net after a low to purchase funds, we can see that the warm level of market demand.
At the same time, we expect 2006 to achieve 40% of listed companies, profit growth is gradually becoming a reality, according to the latest statistics, as of April 23, 2007, a total of 1160 listed companies to reveal its 2006 annual report, accounting for the total number of listed companies, 80.28%, this 1160 net profit of listed companies, the creation of up to 366.3 billion yuan, of which taken together with the comparable net profit of listed companies increased by 42.17%, this outstanding state is to maintain the profitability of the foundations of the pattern of the bull market.
Thus, last Thursday's decline can still be understood as the market needs to adjust itself the result, from the trend, we continue to maintain the Shanghai index to determine the basic objective of 4,000 points. But investors have to take note of is that the current index has a relatively high position, the market began to gradually increase the differences in the short term, if the rises too high too fast, it will inevitably lead to the intensification of shock.
In investment opportunities, due to the rapid growth of macro-economic, non-ferrous metals, coal, petrochemical, electric power, iron and steel in the upper reaches of the industry is still is a steady increase in the expected industry demand remains strong, prices are also strong trend emerged, where the typical color metal, while the downstream industry, there is cost pressure is expected to increase risk. Therefore, we propose to maintain the focus on these in the upstream sector investment opportunities.
Another investment opportunity is the integration of industry, industry consolidation opportunities to bring about structural changes, such opportunities are often manifested when the stock price rise would be more room for significant, such as the integration of the power industry, specific programs have been announced GD Power and the future of the country is expected to vote in the power, the Yangtze River and electric power, as well as there is integration needs, such as cement, glass and some other industries.
Hu Tong Securities Finance R & D center text:
Courage to meet the bull market advantage of the opportunity for
The recent market trend is very strong, from a March 18 central bank announced interest rate increase since the broader market straight up, broke through to a number of 100-point mark to close today, has risen more than 600 points, or up to 20%. There is such a market, the causes:
First, broad based, bringing stocks to make money effect, a continuous influx of new capital market.
The stock market in 2006 on a good performance, attracted the eye of investors in general, especially in the broader market this year, March break 3000-point mark after waiting for more investors from the market have to speed up the pace. Quotes from the point of view, the smaller-cap, lower gains in 2006 in the asset injection, equity futures and securities subject matter stimulation, one after another out of the rising trend run record highs. No matter what the stock plate, as long as the lower price of the additional funds have been sought after, but many of these shares held by small investors, as stock prices continue to climb, these investors holdings have some sort of relief, And will make money, the stock market thoroughly demonstrated its money-making effect, makes the rapid increase in the number of new accounts, savings, money is diverted to the stock market.
Second, again, strong blue-chip institutional investor confidence restored.
Since the beginning of 2007, all the blue chips, including iron and steel, petrochemicals, banking, real estate and other shares of listed companies experiencing sharp rise in 2006 after the shocks have emerged one after another to adjust the operation pattern, a certain pressure on the tape, tape from the beginning of 2007 to March, has been below 3,000 points, shock reshuffle shows that institutional investors, there are some concerns about the market outlook, but from March 18 after the central bank announced the rate hike, the market interest rates in Canada the same day Dikaigaozou, all the way up. In particular, upward pressure on the larger blue-chip rebound movements are out of the show to restore investor confidence. Sinopec quarterly published from the evident growth of exchange Tianfu March 12 from its inception, the short span of a month, to buy shares of Sinopec 3912.5. Most fund companies are also coincidentally showing strong confidence in the capital markets.
Separate ways funds are one after another into the market, mainstream funding and private capital in the pace of action to reach agreement on the circumstances, the broad market keeps rising, and each has a broad market fund dips down to intervene, so that stock to recover lost territory. Tape out of the very strong growth market, as a whole, the market do more lively atmosphere, in the incremental funding to actively market and listed companies positive constant background, we midline optimistic and should have the courage to greet the arrival of the stock market bubble, the flow of . But the broader market should pay attention to the technical adjustment of short-term risks, and be mindful of the policy risk.
Based on the above factors, we believe that the stock market in the long term there is still room for growth, but the short-term need to adjust our requirements, we recommend investors to do the following:
1, has been holding low-priced subject shares, taking advantage of individual stocks may be significantly pulled out when the short-term investors can also be form, the amount of energy and other technical individual stocks selected for participation in short-term operation, but a good grasp of the market pace and can not be too frequently.
2, from the medium and long term, we must adhere to the concept of value investing, from the development of the industry outlook, the company fundamentals such as operating conditions to select individual stocks, patience holds. Or consider the margin of safety and wait for opportunity to intervene.
