Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-09-30
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: This column that launched the current round of the bull market context and market environment is extremely complex, this is our Quotes trends in judging round to face a critical issue. The management of large expansion, non-tradable shares lifted, the macro-control under the industrial restructuring, the RMB appreciation and other factors have on the market's overall direction and structure of the differentiation of an important impact on the macro-side factors.
This column that launched the current round of the bull market context and market environment is extremely complex, this is our Quotes trends in judging round to face a critical issue. The management of large expansion, non-tradable shares lifted, the macro-control under the industrial restructuring, the RMB appreciation and other factors have on the market's overall direction and structure of the differentiation of an important impact on the macro-side factors.
Macroeconomic fundamentals, an extremely complex
Change in the stock market after the completion of the background is very complicated. First of all pairs of expansion unprecedented speed, especially the expansion speed of large-cap stocks in the past can not match. Secondly, the full circulation of non-tradable shares of major shareholders after the lifting of the ban, to accelerate yuan appreciation, such as macro-control impact on the market is large.
1, management's goal is to promote the development of the market (especially the expansion of large-cap stocks)
This column has always stressed that, in the tradable after the management's objective is to promote the great development of the market. Specifically the performance of agencies in accelerating the expansion and expansion of the size of two funds, especially in large capitalization stocks accelerated release. This is a clear need for the basic stability of the market and drive up the positioning of large-cap stocks, which also contributed to the current round of exponential most important reason for the bull market.
Second, the structural macro-control effects on the market
Overall, the macro-control will necessarily affect the overall performance of listed companies and the overall supply of funds on the market have a certain negative impact. But its most important impact is on the promotion of industrial restructuring, the differentiation between industries and industries will take place within a clear division, this is the main macro-control effects on the market, also contributed to the serious divisions within individual stocks on the market as an important factor.
Third, the RMB appreciation
RMB appreciation has brought to the market's long-term good can not be ignored, with the inflow of capital to the market will bring sufficient supply of funds and the promotion of real estate and other significant benefit from the appreciation of the RMB plate.
4, a major shareholder lifted full circulation
Now begun to enter into the peak of a small non-lifting of the ban, but by 2007, and in 2008 there will be more to the non-tradable shares into tradable shares. In this context, it will have a big shareholders and institutions are among the showdown, or major shareholders and institutions, their complicity, will directly determine the movement of individual stocks and the overall pattern of the market, paying particular attention to this factor.
The specific effects on the market
In the above factors, we believe that the specific impact the market will be the
First, the control of the index heavyweight greatly strengthen the
With the expansion of large-cap stocks dominated the market to the issue of an ongoing process of manipulation of the index heavyweight capacity will become increasingly stronger.
1, the index is more easily manipulated
ICBC issued later, the proportion of heavyweight constituent stocks accounted for more than 50%, which means that the manipulation of the index heavyweight capacity is growing. And as there will be more banks, insurance companies will be listed on large-cap stocks, large-cap stocks will be easier to arbitrary control indices, especially the financial sector will strengthen the impact of the index.
2, disk is more easily obscured by the actual situation
In fact, although the index is currently red flag flying all the way, but in the macro-control and other negative factors, most stocks have continued to decline. This means that under the cover of heavyweights, the actual market structure more easily concealed, it will also become an important market after the feature.
Second, market trends complexity of the structure will be a long-term phenomenon differentiation
1, see index of the mode of operation for individual stocks will not meet future market
As this column has always stressed that, as a result index is now actually more responsive to the heavyweight plate movements, its reference value stocks are being weakened, and this point we should attach great importance, namely, the traditional method of watching the stock market index would be turned upside down.
2, Qi Zhang Qi or the phenomenon of individual stocks will be radically changed, long-term differentiation between individual stocks
As the major shareholder of the macro-control, as well as the non-bypass on the impact of different stocks in this column that the structural adjustment and the differentiation between individual stocks will continue, but also from the current heavyweight and the general differentiation between individual stocks to the differentiation between the evolution of individual stocks.
