Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-07-22
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: A barrage of threatening bull rally, many people believe that if the policy does not increase the regulation and control efforts, the market continue to be very likely to continue to go crazy. From these circumstances, the judge is not without reason, such as account opening influx of hot, institutions do not see an empty short, substantial RMB appreciation and other factors, are Tian Chai bull market for hot refueling. Therefore we can say the policy factor is the sustainability of the bull market of the key points.
Game Analysis
A) the main and policies of the Game:
1) Premier Wen Jiabao's speech revealed that the two Idea: A barrage of threatening the bull market rally, many people believe that if the policy does not increase the regulation and control efforts, the market continue to be very likely to continue to go crazy. In fact, all the circumstances, this judge is not without reason, such as account opening influx of hot, institutions do not see an empty short, substantial RMB appreciation and other factors, are Tian Chai bull market for hot refueling. Therefore we can say the policy factor is the sustainability of the bull market of the key points.
In 2007 the African Development Bank Group Boards of Governors meeting, Premier Wen Jiabao pointed out that currently, China's economic and financial situation is generally good. However, there is an imbalance of international payments increased foreign exchange reserves growth is accelerating, the problem of excess liquidity. It is noteworthy that, Premier Wen also pointed out that we are fully confident and capable, there are ways to properly resolve the various problems faced by the financial sector to maintain financial stability and sustained and healthy development.
Premier Wen Jiabao's speech revealed that the two subtleties, first, suggesting that A shares as a whole is still in an acceptable range. A stocks price-earnings ratio is currently more than 40 times, but the core of blue-chip price-earnings ratio is only 30 times. For this structural foam, Premier Wen said that China since the economic and financial situation is generally good, that is, implies an overall valuation of A shares are still in an acceptable range.
Second, reiterated the economic and financial aspects of management to control. Premier Wen expressed his full confidence, ability and means to properly solve the various problems faced by the financial sector and is suggesting that development of the stock market entirely in control range. If the market atmosphere of speculation, and rose to become irrational, management will have sufficient capacity to be regulated. Careful investors will find that management has been proactive in this area, such as the regulatory authorities issued an "effectively strengthen the Fund's investment risk management and related issues" which called for the fund to firmly establish the value of investment philosophy is strictly prohibited Fund's involvement in speculative operations.
2) The hot afternoon the selected strategy: With the constant introduction of relevant policies, as well as the trading platform of continuous improvement, stock index futures is almost certain. Insiders said that considering risk control, comprehensive settlement, system debugging and other factors, stock index futures may be pointed out that in October or so. In this expectation, some people believe that the layout of large blue-chip, access to strategic chip stock index futures preparations. Column view, and the valuation of stocks as a whole compared to the level A, large blue-chip relatively low valuation of some, does have the layout of the conditions; However, once the large blue-chip campaign together, will inevitably push up quickly index, then the pressure would be a significant regulatory policy increase. Therefore, I believe that the mainstream funding to launch a large scale can not be easily large blue-chip market, up only round of the mobility, into the two back a style of operation. On the contrary, this column that the main blue-chip Zhongshan University in the second-line to make a fuss This will not only continue to do more, but also to avoid the policy of pressure.
In addition, the injection of assets (including the overall market, issuance) appears to re-sign of strength, afternoon should focus on. 11-day article, this column pointed out that the two types of stocks worthy of a long-term concern, one is broker concept, a class of an asset injection. Although the concept of the previous few sessions, brokerage callback by a big margin, but it's role as a popular plate has not changed. Patterns do not change as long as the bull market, massive turnover brought about by brokerage revenue, continued with the IPO brought additional investment banking revenue, to support the growth in the performance of securities companies several times.
The concept of asset injection for the next few years, the management of large enterprises bigger and stronger central idea remains unchanged, the number of central enterprises will be compressed to 196 of about 80-100. In other words, including iron and steel, electricity, coal, medicine and other industries in the next period of time will trigger a tide of merger and reorganization, which look for the stock market is undoubtedly the most attractive catalyst for speculation.
B) the main financial Game:
Taking into account the index is at a relatively high level with the upcoming stock index futures and other factors, some of the main body throw some of the lucrative chips to lock in profits, or to shift the focus of configuration varieties of higher margin of safety, but the overall position has also been a relatively early stage decline. New funds, although some species have begun Jiancang, but the intensity Jiancang not. In general, agencies have taken while walking to see, The Hills view of the cautious strategy of fighting tiger, even in the heavyweight competition, the same is not deep wading.
3) between the medium and small retail game:
Proposed to focus on the texture of a good investment in M & A unit, or a lower price-earnings ratio of second-line blue-chip. For the short-term performance gains without the support of individual stocks is too large, you can consider progressively lighten up.
Disk X-ray:
Tomorrow is expected to rise slightly to maintain the high shock pattern.
The opportunity to plate is expected to:
Concerned about the relatively high margin of safety recommended varieties, such as the concept of the new accounting standards and assets into the plate.
Market Risk points:
Short-term or excessive stocks, pay attention to out rallies.
Protection measures:
Proper control positions.
