Category: Money tips Release Date: 2005-12-16
Source: Guotai Junan
Index stabilized stabilized two cities Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite hit twice within a month after the 60-day moving average and gradually rebounded higher, Shen Chengzhi also receive support on-line in the vicinity stabilized. At present there is a saying that the venue's index M Head K-line is doing, that the market will peak, and we think that environment does not change the context, the market is still worthy of long-term bullish, but short-term index is expected to continue strength.
Peaked too early
To determine a market peaked four signs, first is the emergence of a macro-economic control; second is the continued rapid rise of inflation; third is the level of serious unrealistically high valuation of listed companies; the fourth is the emergence of a collapse of the index-based shares decline. For the macro economy, in May this year, GDP grew 18%, which is since 1994 the highest single-month increase; while in government investment and investment boosted by the Olympics, the future does not exist out of control down the macroeconomic concerns. To determine a trend in the rise of inflation is also an important factor in sexual peak, one-third of China's CPI came from food prices, from the current inflation trend, or will the next few months there will be an upward trend, but this is only stage there will be no substantial extension and accelerated the process of sustained high inflation is clearly does not exist. Valuation of listed companies from the point of view, although the current price-earnings ratio of more than A shares of the world's average level, but also in emerging markets than the average level, but still a healthy development of the range. QFII investment quota to enlarge to 30 billion U.S. dollars of foreign investment also shows that A-share market for the sustainable development of good, they can find in the A-share market value of investments. Of course, if A-share market as a whole to reach 50 or even 60 times earnings, investors may wish to consider departing. When the price-earnings ratio reached 50,60 times, it caused the bull market peaked will be the target of a fuse unit, its collapse will be in the market-based decline in the formation of a series of chain reactions, giving rise to the market's overall decline. But for now, although some indicators of unit weight of the recent signs of weakness, but is far from the collapse of the type drop level. Based on the above analysis, the market appears to have peaked, fears could stand on foot, in the long term, for the A-share market's upside potential would still be able to give optimistic.
Can still see a high short-term
In fact, not only is the medium to long term should be optimistic about the prospects for short-term A-share market is also expected to have a certain optimism. On the one hand, from a technical point of view the surface layer, Tuesday's index adjusted to be stronger near the 60-day moving average support, KDJ indicators also demands a certain bounce. The index of the last three trading days from the point of view, more than 400 stocks in share prices below the "5" 30 "adjustment Quotes lows, the market decline in a row in a better focus on the completion of a short release of kinetic energy, while the Tuesday section weighted blue chips after the continuous weakening finally appeared some signs of stabilizing, which will bring important market continued to rise in popularity, this market is expected to usher in the long-awaited rally. On the other hand, should be noted that this week will be the last year six months, the last trading week this time of year will enter the sector groups, the key point performance checkout, in such a critical point in time, the market is expected to take a good data later this week. From a historical point of view, access to after 2005, A shares are able to in the first half last week to close at a red disc, in June 2006 the last week of the Shanghai Composite up 4.14% or weeks; even in mid-2005, the market decline of the stock market in June last week of A-share market also remain red plate reported income, the Shanghai Composite rose 1.5% in weeks, have better performance in the first half of last week seems to be the market practice. linked to the current market, in the absence of negative factors that influence the market direction of circumstances, this week, the market is likely to there Xianyihouyang trend this week, Red plate may be given a certain look.
Operation, it is recommended that investors look at a real good themes emerged stocks, such as the Hai Tong Group (600,537), the company benefited from the Hangzhou Bay Bridge opened. Hangzhou Bay Bridge north Haiyan, Jiaxing City, Cixi, Ningbo City, south waterway Bay, is the world's longest cross-sea bridge. Upon completion, light the bridge toll would allow investors to benefit greatly, the relative sea-Tong Group holding 29% of the total investment company, Cixi bridge bridge rose to 12.83 percent of shares. Each year, the future will have a stable source of profits. In addition, the completion of Hangzhou Bay Bridge, Cixi is expected to enhance local land prices, the company has huge land bank Cixi, a broad space for the future value-added. The secondary market, the stock market's adjustment of early involvement in a sharp correction, showing a strong rebound in the short-term momentum future to speak of bargain-hunting interest.
