Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-11-23
Shanghai Composite thrilling scene occurred yesterday: the past eight years, the first back-digit; afternoon, but the rapid rise in reported income in both Yang Xian --
At 11:08 on June 6, 998.23 points. Since February 21, 1997 has been set foot on 1000 points, the Shanghai Composite for the first time back to three digits, but the fall of 1000 points, a temporary market panic does not make new records, on the contrary, a strong rebound in some Awkwardness of Fund, especially the set of Group limit-stimulation, the stock rose rapidly afternoon, various indices Zhongpan are the yin yang Tun Yang Xian at close. Among them, in order to be affected by the most influential Shen Chengzhi CIMC gains the highest, 3.89%, while the Shanghai stock market weight due to no strong indicators of stock performance, benchmark Shanghai Composite Index or the smallest, only 2.05%. Although the index rose significantly, but the content can not enlarge the two cities yesterday, a total turnover of 8.6 billion, only slightly larger than last Friday.
The Awkwardness of Fund in cash? Observe the forefront of the stock yesterday rose table can be found, early yesterday, the deep fall Awkwardness of Fund index as the main force pulled up, such as CIMC, Yantian, Shanghai Zhenhua Port Machinery, Yantai Wanhua and other gains were more than 9%. Is recently been Yorozuo Awkwardness really being vitality of funds within the meaning of it?
Recalling the recent market phenomena, Awkwardness is a fact that prices have dropped drastically, the fund net losses as well as reality, but they can compete with the Fund fled to equate do? Rational, objective analysis, I am afraid that is difficult to draw such a conclusion. To fulfill a large number of chips, the primary characteristics of the disk is to have enough volume, there is no drop in volume can only show a problem, that was too weak to undertake the next stall. The Awkwardness of Fund in the near future most of the decline process, and no amount of amplification can be abnormal phenomenon, the fund acts of a small amount of reduction must exist, after all, the holder can not prevent acts of redemption may be intended to honor the hands of a large number of chips easier said than done! What's more, the market, there are still other types of institutions, their behavior will not result in selling the stock down it? I am afraid that the recent heavy losses of the Fund is not a book of their own making.
It is precisely because the fund in its fall Awkwardness process without substantial reduction of behavior, so there are market participants that yesterday's sharp rise in Awkwardness of Fund rebound is due to speculative capital. First, because the fund in the hands, and there is not much that can deploy their capital, not much to do more strength; two consecutive decline makes Awkwardness of Fund to bring the standard of "oversold" hat, a surviving market appeal, as well as the relatively good out of conditions that allow speculative funds in the 1000 points, the regions of favor for me.
If this view is valid, then the outlook Awkwardness of the recent trend of the Fund, I am afraid we must look to get involved in speculative funds confidence and patience with him. The overall environment is still weak, as well as speculative funds own "changeable" feature, which caused many investors Awkwardness of Fund still have doubts about the sustainability of the strong.
Has reached a turning point inflection point is not imminent Single-needle bottom last Friday, yesterday, after the fall of 1000 points, a strong rebound in the Japanese K-line diagram is indeed formed a turning point, but this is probably just a technical graphics on the stage near a turning point, but not the overall trend , or that turning point on the CBBC conversion.
First, the core element is expected to influence the market was not clear. Investors are most concerned about the factors that focus on exchange rates, trade friction, the split share structure reform, and so on. EU constitution referendum suffered repeated failures has led to the market generally felt that the euro medium-term weakness die hard, and gradually the face of U.S. dollar strength, plus the constant trade friction partners, pressure on the RMB exchange rate appreciation pressures are difficult to quickly lifted, but with close Stock trend certainly can not easily be settled. Although the split share structure reform to the good direction, the second batch of pilot projects is also expected a "representative" of the company, but this "representative" What will be the extent to which investors agree remains to be seen. What's more, every listed company has a "non-copy nature", the "representative" of a listed company it could not to the reform of other listed companies to provide "specimens." Is because they are "feeling the stones", so the concept of gradually clear laws and regulations to further improve the things that are not overnight, is expected to clear need to wait.
Second, is expected to result in an unknown outside the capital before faltering. Lack of funds is now the venue is an indisputable fact that the process of Change is difficult to enlarge the volume also demonstrates the attitude of the outside funds, the market has anticipated outflow of funds from the real estate so far difficult to get their tracks in the stock market. Although the residents of deposits increased, the macro-control lead to the real estate to cool bond index higher again and again, has made it difficult to attract funds to the attention of bond returns, but the stock continued to fall in front of the "hard landing" is still the possibility of the presence of to expect outside the capital are now rounded out the value of the criterion is not clear on the stock market, inevitably some wishful thinking.
Of course, can not be expected to continue indefinitely fuzzy value of the temporary lack of criteria does not hinder or Change up stage, the emergence of perhaps 998 to provide investors with a short-term opportunity. "Imminent" may soon may be slower, but our market is always used to remember the real turning point appeared to promote the factors that moment, but often neglected turning point occurred early accumulation of the complex process, and now all the uncertainties, is not The emergence of the next inflection point for the accumulation of energy?
Recently, the President is still the major fund management companies to convene a meeting to require fund companies to jointly promote the capital market reforms, realization of securities and fund industry in the development of positive interaction. Yesterday, The Awkwardness of Fund, represented by blue-chip blue-chip rebound across the board to drive the success of the Shanghai Composite Index below the 1000 recovered lost ground. But from yesterday's market turnover point of view, the two cities less than 100 billion turnover is still not enough to rally support for the smooth conduct of mid-level, so investors can continue to watch, wait for the market volume significantly larger. If the market fell again, you might consider increasing the intensity Jiancang.
Yesterday led a fund holding, pre-sales of all varieties, the market has clearly oversold bounce characteristics. If this rally continues, necessarily need to be able to attract those who favor incremental funding outside the stronger varieties. Investors continue to focus on the one hand, oversold Awkwardness of Fund, on the other hand also need to consider international comparisons and long-term factors, focusing on those who consider the consumer, valuation class Awkwardness integration, such as China Merchants Bank, Baosteel, ZTE, etc. Most of these shares are those shares have been fully and mature market, and even the valuation lower than the overseas market, a lot easier if incremental large institutions of all ages.
From short-term investment strategy point of view, I consider that the scale on a regular basis to buy ETF funds, with low-risk, high-yielding and liquid characteristics, in line with medium-scale capital investment needs. The next period of time, the market has rebounded implication retaliatory opportunity, the market composite index is expected to re-enter the 1150-point range above; the market will enter a longer period of time after the weak balance of the city in the 1000 point area oscillation. In order to avoid abnormal fluctuations in irrational market risk, we recommend that investors can take to buy ETF fixed on a regular basis the way, get in the next 1-2 months, possible retaliatory rebound opportunities. Investors are advised to "week" as a unit, the initial purchase of 5% per week -10% of the ETF funds; in the market at the bottom of a big bang, when the blue-chip active consideration may be given a week to buy 10% -15% of the ETF funds. In the next 1-2 months, the estimated average yield of 15% or more, when the departure could be considered.
