Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-03-16
The stock market entered a period of adjustment in February, the fund flows into the market an important factor. Through the analysis of fund flows, we believe that the overall market capitalization of well-off will not reverse the situation, the market will be short-lived rise in adjusted to find a new direction. Choose the right time to moderate the proposed increase their investment in equity funds in order to obtain the latter part of the market rising earnings.
Financial situation will not be broken off
Jiancang the fund is currently in Phase 0 grant funding estimated around 130 billion in size. In mid-December after the Securities and Futures Commission has begun to gradually suspend approval of new funds issued in an initial influx of adoption of the new Development Fund for stock markets, the latter part of the supply of funds is slowing down, fund companies in order to continue to expand the scale and began mass dividends or split way the old fund ongoing marketing. Data show that in December 2006 since the size of the new Development Fund for a total of 101.458 billion, from the net to see the performance, especially in the past week, the net decrease in the level of analysis, already a number of positions only to fund higher levels of estimated available funds later this part of the fund of approximately In the 30 billion or so; in December 2006, there have been 35 different ways to do the Fund through continued marketing, including dividends and split by a large proportion of the fund will decline in the net 18, net sales have been completed in December according to the different funds types of estimates of its size, this part of the fund can provide the additional funds of around 100 billion. The above two parts will provide a total of around 130 billion the amount of funding.
Market adjustment may lead to capital outflows of up to 80 billion. From October 2006 began to gradually enlarge the size of the fund distribution of funds into the market are highly positive, if this part of the funds 60% came from individual investors, then if the stock market volatility, fell to the individual investor psychology to combat large, most of the Redemption will take a profit in order to ensure the safety of principal, but once the net value below its cost of investment funds, which redeem the phenomenon will gradually ease, the holder will be patient to wait for the net to hold the re-up.
Since October 2006 issued a total of 28 funds, the establishment of the size of up to 193.3 billion copies, and in the December 12, 2006 the fund established after the most are not open redemption, while sales excluding the net present low, has investors same as, or lower cost of funds, the remaining 19 funds overall size of about 127.7 billion yuan of funds, if this part of the funds 60% of the option to leave the outflow of funds is the amount of follow-up may be up to 80 billion.
From the above analysis we can see that the supply of the stock market through a fund of funds is still greater than the need for the overall financial well-off will not be a fundamental reversal of the situation, if the market adjusted to a reasonable level, this part of the off-site resources may choose to re-enter the court, while the supported the formation of the stock market. Therefore, we believe that the stock market in the latter part of the limited space, funds withdrew their capital from the impact on the stock market will gradually weaken, should seize this opportunity to adjust and increase the fund investment, selection of fund portfolio so as to pave the way for the whole of 2007 the Fund's investments.
To increase investment in small-cap fund
In the dividend factors, gradually digested, the fund market is waiting for a new catalyst for the adjustment occurs. If we analyze only the changes in the latter part of the Fund worse resale values, then in the current situation will prompt the factors that reduce the overall market discount is only exogenous factors, endogenous stock market rebound and net worth rose only to promote the fund to follow the net price rise, narrowing the discount rate is relatively limited , exogenous factors is the holder of the terms of structural diversification, and policy interests of the holders of protection. Corresponds to the holder of structural diversification of this factor, the current market environment, it seems do not see any more money to wait for admission to insurance companies as the main investor of the market structure will not change in the short term, while the QFII, finance companies, and more private capital involvement in the variety of the need for new catalyst, a catalyst for this new provision is to fund the protection of the interests of the holder. In February of this factor are less likely to occur, so we still do not judge in February closed-end funds have outstanding performance, will continue to follow the market adjusted excess returns to investors is limited.
At the same time, we are more concerned about the high security in February of small-cap closed-end fund, the Fund and the Fund with the King Yip Chi Feng Zhuankai size increased rather than decreased after the demonstration effect, the small-cap due to expire in 2007 closed-end funds increased possibility of advancing Fengzhuan Kai, once re-entered the stock market on track, there will be more small-cap closed-end fund managers to actively promote Feng Zhuankai to gain additional funds to intervene, which holders in terms of time would significantly reduce the cost of holding early gains access to discounts reply. Feng Zhuankai has not yet been carried out in 2007 due to fund a total of 15, the overall discount of about 13%, annualized revenue remains high. In February, can choose an increasing investment in small-cap closed-end funds in order to obtain secure stable income.
Gradually raise the proportion of equity funds allocation
Based on the atmosphere of the overall stock market in 2007 was still a good judge, we believe that in February the market adjustment process can be gradually increased to the open-end equity fund investment categories in order to obtain a better return on investment. In terms of strategy can be taken to gradually buying, particularly in the Shanghai Composite Index to 2600 points, below, after the callback, you can begin to gradually increase the ratio of fund investments. At the same time, for the integrated management of performance excellence and a strong ability to fund key investment.
