Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-04-22
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: The 2007 revaluation of the RMB will continue to conduct, its magnitude and may even-than-expected, no doubt that in 2007 the stock market affecting the pattern of an important factor. Appreciation of the yuan against the backdrop of domestic demand-oriented industries and technology-intensive export industries will continue to upgrade and continue to grow, the listed company's share price will reflect this expectation.
In this section the recent thread on the 2007 investment analysis process, we have to upgrade the industrial structure may be produced in 2007 The main effect of market structure are analyzed. In this article, we will appreciate the yuan in 2007 the overall context and the possible assessment of the policy environment, in this based on the analysis of the factors on the specific impact of market structure, and thus infer that in 2007 the most important benefit from yuan appreciation plate.
First of all, we believe that as China's economic development, currency appreciation is an inevitable process, which is the world, many countries in the economic leap forward in the process of inevitable. RMB revaluation pressure from the outside, prompting the national industrial structure and economic growth patterns change, under normal circumstances by the labor-intensive to technology-intensive industrial development (this point and happened to coincide with China's current national industrial policy).
Currently, the market generally agreed that the appreciation of the yuan next year will reach about 5% of the range, and this is expected to have been generally accepted by the market. However, we believe that the economic interests between China and the pattern of very complex game, the magnitude of the possibility of currency appreciation than-expected, so the impact on the market may become more obvious that these are worthy of our attention.
In general, the rate of appreciation of the yuan next year, will reach 5% and may even reach a bigger increase than expected, while the country's current deal with the main measures of the currency appreciation is that the current view in two directions: First, adjust the industrial structure (that is, upgrading the industrial structure) ; Second, the main monetary policy might be inclined to take in order to maintain the independence of monetary policy and the internal equilibrium-based regulation and control for mobility, avoid being caught in the Japanese currency appreciation in this period followed the gradual accumulation of financial bubbles.
In this process, to promote domestic demand-based industries and high value-added export-oriented industries such as electronics and information industry will be able to upgrade, and the corresponding listed companies will face a long-term growth opportunities.
1, the currency appreciation of the macro-policy environment during the period
1, monetary policy will control the main objective of liquidity
In appreciation of the renminbi, we believe that the central bank may take countermeasures should be pegged to money supply growth target to maintain an appropriate growth of money supply to prevent the spread of liquidity brought about by the excessive expansion of the financial bubble.
If you take a simple cut strategy, although it may in the short term to eliminate the pressure of RMB appreciation, yet difficult to solve the long-term fundamental issue. And may eventually lead to the spread and the liquidity of asset bubbles (mainly real estate and financial assets), the final bubble burst will cause long-term economic recession, which is Japan already has a precedent. The mere raising interest rates, but also could lead to tight conditions in money supply growth slowing and consumption is suppressed.
On the whole, the central bank's monetary policy should be to maintain an appropriate monetary liquidity as the main objective.
2, adjustment of industrial structure
Industrial policies, as well as their corresponding tax policies, mainly to upgrade the industrial structure, develop a stronger export competitiveness, with high value-added industries as the main. At the same time, changing the income distribution based on the structure and promote the development of domestic-oriented industries such as tourism and high-end consumer goods.
Second, the currency appreciation brought about by the long-term market opportunities
In the process of currency appreciation, due to abundant liquidity, will push up real estate financial assets, but also to force the process of industrial upgrading in the part of the technology and capital-intensive industry is experiencing a leap. This column believes that this is the process of yuan appreciation has brought to the market the most important opportunities.
A financial and real estate
Promote the reform of the currency appreciation stocks rose the most important reason is that abundant liquidity and even spread of such asset price inflation so as to promote the stock prices. However, at present China's monetary policy adjustments in the money supply target to prevent the excessive growth in money supply. This means that real estate and financial stocks increases in asset prices may be lower than the market expectations, it is worth Investors.
2, growth in domestic demand-oriented industries
To stimulate the growth of domestic demand-oriented industry is a response to appreciation of the RMB to bring economic growth after the slowdown in exports slowed the inevitable choice. At present the majority of countries to reduce import duty on goods at the same time, it raised the luxury tax, which reflects the state will upgrade to promote domestic demand, stimulate consumption and growth.
In this industrial policy support, tourism, luxury and other high-end consumer market worthy of attention.
3, with high technological content of export industry
RMB appreciation process, the traditional labor-intensive exports will gradually shrink, its property will be transferred abroad. The high-tech manufacturing industries due to the impact on smaller, in the national industrial policy, encouragement, will gradually be increased. Among these, mainly of electronic information products manufacturing industry to upgrade particular cause for concern.
