Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-03-07
In the broader market fell below 1,000 points last year, after the market this year will be how to interpret? From the trading system, tape run, the "new old" to start, as well as closed-end funds go from here, which will be much more attractive.
Trends Hai Tong Securities: to sustain the adjustment pattern
In 2006 the market will continue to present opportunities for local characteristics, as a whole will be maintained or adjusted downward trend.
China's current level of the stock market's overall price-earnings ratio is close to or even lower than the level of mature market countries, if taking into account price of A shares of the total market value accounted for nearly 2 / 3 of the market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300's price-earnings ratio has fallen below the Hang Seng Mainland Composite Index. Thus it was that the current level of China's stock market valuations are more reasonable. But only to infer the market is currently at the bottom of the region, and gradually start a new bull market, significantly less than the basis. The reason is that both the broad market continued to decline in more than four years, or the overall price-earnings ratio is close to a mature market, will only show that China's stock market valuation is moving towards a reasonable value range, and can not infer that China's stock market bullish. China's stock market to really take the cattle, the answer can only be based on listed companies tradable on the platform growth.
Ping An Securities: will enter the up-cycle
China's economic environment, the short term there will be no major changes, so changes in the macroeconomic effects of movements on the stock market will be weaker.
Since the second half of 2005, before the market generally optimistic about the market value of stocks have abandoned. On the contrary, "subject," speculation once again prevailed, from the continuity of view, can no longer be seen as short-term speculative behavior, which may be the direction of long-term capital flows. We believe that this phenomenon is not irrational investor behavior. On the contrary, is a strong background of historical experience, is China's "emerging and transitional" the inevitable result of circumstances.
After July 2001 to July 2005, after four years of decline, China's stock market has been transferred to up-cycle. Expected that the current consolidation process around the end of the Spring Festival in 2006, after which the process of launching a new round of upside in 2006, the Shanghai index could reach 1,500-point level.
Days relative investment: a bit too optimistic future Quotes
Since 2004, the management in the "Country 9" and it clear that financial innovation has been to develop, more and more innovative products appear on the stock market. 2005 can be called financial innovation, the next year, financial innovation will continue, more and more derivatives will appear. In the financial derivatives keep emerging, the "risk-free arbitrage," started to provide new investment opportunities.
The concerns of the current decline in performance has been reflected in the current stock price, but the acceleration change stock prices are expected right after the blue chips continued to achieve strong support for the market, higher margin of safety is attracting the gradual involvement of outside capital, the management also has the ability through the regulation leading blue chip companies share reform process and the right price range and other means to maintain market stability, therefore, the trend for the future operation of the market a bit too optimistic.
CITIC Construction Investment: cattle wandering bears turning point
2006 A-share market from the current pattern of relatively simple patterns to complex patterns change, the ecological environment of the stock market will appear in the pattern of diversity of characteristics. The capital structure diversification trend is gradually taking shape, insurance, social security, QFII and non-tradable shares split between the shareholders and the Fund, the diversification of the world pattern of capital structure will be in 2006 an important feature of the market.
Looking ahead to 2006, the market will bear at the turning point among the cattle. Based on the progress of split share structure reform, economic adjustment cycle and industry boom and other factors, we judge at this stage is always likely to run through 2006. We believe that the A-share market in 2006 will remain in the complex technical patterns to maintain the pattern of shock, uncertainty is still large, the index can not be expected too. Broader market will remain relatively limited room for growth, the overall box was shock state, the broader market is relatively high near 1400.
Galaxy Securities: has entered a bear market end of
In 2006 will achieve 8.9% of the GDP growth rate of yuan appreciation is expected to continue next year, 5%; 70% of the share reform of listed companies have not yet based on an average 10 ?3 for value stocks change, will enhance the market value of about 20%. The three factors together, the stock market next year, with at least 30% of the upside potential.
The rapid growth of China's real economy will gradually be reflected in the increasingly mature A-share market, China's capital market valuation levels not far below the level of overseas earnings in emerging markets, it can not long be a major departure from the standard valuation of a mature market.
Roughly equivalent to the current A-share market in Japan 60 years, Hong Kong, China 70's level. Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets after a long adjustment, the current bear market has entered the end, with the stock market system, the gradual elimination of obstacles, a large number of blue-chip groups, highlighting the value of investments, A-share market will eventually usher in a new stage of development.
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Yi Fonda funds: the market next year, down space is limited, the environment is conducive to market changes, but not once in Shanghai and Shenzhen index rose a high, after all, next year's profit growth of listed companies may not be as this year. Stocks in the bottom of the consolidation, rose slightly. Conceptual stocks will be relatively active, real estate, retail industry and mergers and acquisitions, innovation and plates have an opportunity.
Wells Fargo Funds: The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market is in bearish outside to see more. The A shares on the international context, see, influence the market are mainly psychological factors. The two cities is now very attractive valuation, in the context of appreciation of the renminbi, A shares rising trend is positive. QFII, social security and other funds have also increased the pace of the market. Comprehensive consider the various factors at the bottom of the area currently on the market. "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" giving the market a far-reaching implications, although price-earnings ratio is currently high, but the competition in the market the company has continued growth potential cause for concern. A total of 4 1 [2] [3] [4]
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