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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Continued close watch on tape heavyweight
In the "buy China" under the concept of an international investment bank shares soaring, the powerful real estate stocks, steel stocks an initial taste of the strong investors to the A-share market internationalization Quotes of the style, but also the majority of mainland investors to some " Fan Yun. " Now, and the prices of the development has exceeded many investors thinking and vision of the border, post-Quotes go from here? There is only one conclusion, that is to continue keeping a tight rein broader market heavyweights.
Two elements of blue-chip to provide adequate justification and basis for Quotes
As early as in September there was the following prompt: "has been part of the institutions to devise such a profitable path: in the current blue chips are widely underestimated, the chance to buy stock at the same time to do more large-cap stocks --- Singapore FTSE Xinhua A50 A stock index futures to exert influence on the broader market shares --- will do more to a reasonable value, generate premium --- in the future when the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index futures opened short arbitrage. " We comply with the profitable path, can be found in which the two core elements, one blue chip at the start before the general state of the valuation discount, which either comply with the international trend of futures trading in the chips or future value of resources, or the The value of investments of its own factors, the blue chips Quotes provided sufficient justification and basis. Second, index futures opened, whether they are to conduct arbitrage trading, or hedging transactions, or price speculation, its biggest charm is that it can be short. Clearly, in the former to do more, which implies a very large between the short and very low risk arbitrage space. Separate ways because of the capital flock to this change in the stock market generated, with a historic opportunity for the broad road of profit is an inevitable choice, but also one of the most intellectual of investment choices.
Therefore, the current Quotes level and the risks involved will depend on whether the blue chips have reached the extent of the valuation premium.
Four blue-chip panel display at a fair distance away from the valuation bubble
Banking stocks: At present, the big banks leading the corresponding shares of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China shares estimated price-earnings ratio for 2006 and 2007, respectively 26,21 times; small banks leading the corresponding shares of China Merchants Bank forecast price-earnings ratio for 2006 and 2007-fold, respectively 34,26; from rational valuation perspective, banking stocks seems to be part of the overdraft future performance expectations is suspect. However, as bank shares "buy China" concept focused on assets, is the trend of RMB appreciation on behalf of financial assets, while tax reform policy and financial services boom has given a high degree of significant growth. Therefore, the banking stocks which should be certain to enjoy a premium valuation. This shows that the current banking stocks as a whole is moving towards a rational valuation of the valuation premium in the process of the state belongs to a rational bubble, post-Quotes higher pressures, the callback limited space.
Steel stocks: Since the steel boom does not appear significant turning point, and as the most traditional industries are difficult to obtain a higher valuation premium. Therefore, the round steel stock Quotes only ultra-low valuation of the system prior to restoration, rather than a new cyclical Quotes. International Iron and Steel stocks in the 8-10 times the average price-earnings ratio, the current A-share market Baosteel, Wuhan Steel shares, Angang New industry leading three-year forecast price-earnings ratio stocks 2006,2007, respectively 9.11,9.11 times; 8.38,6.61 times; 7.14,6.37 times, in order to limit the valuation range of view, iron and steel stocks are still up request, but the absolute space has not.
Petrochemical Unit: Because the oil, CNOOC is still free in the overseas market, A-share market is only a single seedling, Sinopec can be used as the valuation benchmark, Sinopec is currently the corresponding 2006,2007 Estimated price-earnings ratio is 14.10 and 10.50 times, respectively, the International the market valuation of resource-based petrochemical unit standards between 10-12 times, but given China's Sinopec has the resources and the policy of double the value of a monopoly, can enjoy a certain amount of the valuation premium. Therefore, China's Sinopec has already become a reasonable valuation of the current already there is not much room for prices continue to rise.
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Taking the above representative stocks, suggesting that the blue chips has grown from 1,600 points below the undervalued, 1800 near a reasonable valuation of the state is moving towards 2000 points, a premium above the valuation of the state, but blue chips addition to its own estimates value factor, the path in the above also implies a profit value arbitrage. Therefore, the current valuation premium just entering a state of large cap blue chips from the valuation can be a strategic short bubble there is a considerable distance.
Five Aspect revealed towards the latter part of Quotes
This is the meaning of the late Enlightenment Quotes:
First, a premium valuation due to enter the state, under the guidance of the stock market blue chips stage of pressure has a rather heavy, suggesting continued to triumph and space has been relatively limited. However, if the resulting adjustment stage, the callback of absolute space is not very large, more is still a structural adjustment continued to deepen.
The second is the degree of access to a premium valuation, if the banking stocks, real estate stocks led the "28" or "19" phenomenon continues to fight a lone in-depth, it would take a hedge against short-term period of time appears blue chip shares of the structural adjustment and underperformance adjust the mixture under the lethal time is short, but quite the resonance of decline. If this phenomenon occurs, and the prices will likely retreat to form a regional balance of city stages. At the end of the year in order to reach a cyclical investment strategy in early stages of re-layout requirements.
Third, in October of the stock market since, the Mainland authorities seemed relatively passive, mostly adopted a reduction strategy. Quotes to make the majority in November with mainland institutions "surprise," This shows that foreign capital through the Hong Kong stocks and QFII's "internally and externally," mastered the A-share market a large voice and pricing. Quotes of the body has been turned into a game within the game with foreign-funded new trends, this has added a new variable later Quotes. Meanwhile, the dual stock index futures and foreign hostage, it may be to many institutions in the late stages of the Mainland did not dare to lighten up big cash. Thus, as in previous years, as a late-year slump is unlikely.
4 is a "buy China" is an international investment strategy, rather than a stage of the stock market hot spots, with the "buy China" international concept in banking stocks, while real estate stocks such as "China's assets" areas to be focus of sublimation, the future " Buy China "will continue to airports, ports, roads, railways and other basic industries stocks spread, it could be the next bull market to continue in-depth Quotes basis and opportunity.
5 is the H shares on the A shares of the premium not yet fully convertible yuan, before the A-share market has not fully open before they become a new trend. Because, after the share reform tradable A shares of premium has disappeared; also because the H Shares of RMB in Hong Kong dollar-denominated assets, under the trend of RMB appreciation need to give the Hong Kong dollar-denominated prices of compensation; also because of Hong Kong stocks is an international free flow of capital markets, capital, determining prices in the international capital optimistic about RMB-denominated assets during the period, H shares on the A share premium will become a fixed potential. Which prices are more reasonable? Capital mobility is naturally a higher market price more reasonable.
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