Investment insights changing the mindset change in the market Money Tips

Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-05-10

The confidence of investors at any time of the stock market are important. Bear the case, the bull market the same. Continued to rise, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market's confidence, continued to fall since last week, so that confidence to decline rapidly. Change in investor mentality and decided to market this pattern will change in future runs.

â–?Anxin Securities Zhang Deliang

Where can there be to support stock index fell to

Continued to fall, each one investors are asking, what position can there be support? From the valuation point of view, the answer seems to be more pessimistic about the overall price-earnings ratio of 35 times higher than its peak, according to the popular saying back to majority of the world market level, then adjust the rate of 50% is possible. The problem is, the overall price-earnings ratio is a dynamic performance of listed companies increased to offset this adjustment, over the past year's rally came from on the performance of listed companies than-expected growth.

However, we believe that the current operation of the market is not affecting performance, but the investment sentiment (confidence), as well as investors in the cost of, and confidence in general will profit from the opportunities (rebound). From a technical analysis point of view, said the cost of investment seems to be an important factor as a psychological support, in general, a large upward trend in long-term average position there is a supportive role. Such as 30-day MA has been supported by the Shanghai Composite Index, but recent easily fallen through the location, but also triggered the sell into a larger one. Zhongshan University in adjusting the level to level of background, we only through the week, month moving average system to be analyzed. Shanghai Composite Index above example, the current average of 3537 points in May, which is round Quotes forward has always supported the market run average, in other words, the position should continue to be optimistic medium-term market trends are an important support position, corresponding to the weeks K average as 10-20 weeks moving average, currently located at 3350-3793 points, it is clear the market rose Monday's low of 3659 points, has begun to cut into the region, also began in May to the position of 3537-point close to the average. Therefore, from the normal state analysis, test a low inertia Tuesday to stabilize and rebound after the technical requirements. Of course, this is a short-term purposes. And long-term perspective, 2883 adjusted to October average point position is also looking for more support evidence-based, this is the beginning of a breakthrough on the history of the passage of a large increase in the technical withdraw sword. From 3000 to re-start the launch of a new near a market, its fundamentals are very solid indeed.

Or invest in blue-chip rebound

After the collapse of the opportunity, more investors will expect a rebound opportunity, of course, aimed at short-term operation. In general, the first rebound must get a stronger variety, not to do follow suit-type varieties. In addition, the market value should be chosen so a rebound is usually a relatively small species, large rebound in the market value of variety is usually limited and sustained efforts are also limited. At the same time, we should also consider whether the level of stock valuation is basically rational, if in a serious overestimation of their own state, a larger and long-term adjustment pressures, then the risk of further participation in too. Thus, even if participating in a rebound, it should be chosen with the future development trend of long-term investment in the main line is appropriate.

First of all, if re-integration of capital injection to support the development potential of the epitaxial-type companies can pre-focus information, usually the stock Shenfutiaozheng, the most likely evolve into a new round of upside Quotes. In fact, the change in the system in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has attracted a large number of listed companies outside the capital strength, a number of "shell" type listed companies, thus gaining a new life. It is believed that this round of institutional change brought about by restructuring actions will continue to further expand, in addition to the central enterprise integration, there are more places large state-owned enterprises and a large number of private enterprises to enter the capital market, nor because of the intense short-term shocks disappeared . Performance of listed companies from the level of analysis of growth factors, relying on re-injection should be integrated to support the next few years, the best way to share Zaishangtaijie.

Secondly, from the industry point of view to look for, such as the revaluation of coal plates, which is peaked just before the formation of the current round Quotes revaluation of groups, long easy to form energy. Consumer goods, and services are also noteworthy groups.

Unit's performance indicators will determine the nature of the current round of adjustment

Quotes run round so far, a number of indicators of the performance of stocks is also very interesting, such as Sinopec, there were three daily limit (full daily limit, closing at limit-) experience, and each seems to represent a limit-era. The first time June 8, 2005, is China's Sinopec's first daily limit, start a round of bull market, and guide the Shanghai index out of 1,000 points. The second time was January 9, 2007, in order to round Quotes an important turning point in hot, blue chips continue to adjust this turn, replaced by the low market value of shares of a comprehensive low-cost theme started, setting off a round of "mass movement . " Last week (May 31) China Petrochemical reproduction daily limit at this time, the index above 4,000 points just from the sharp sell into broader market peaked, or to lead the market to guide the re-turn to the value of blue-chip? Hot group from the analysis, first launched in 2005, real estate, financial, commercial and consumer products, the strength of their performance will represent the depth of the current round of Quotes In other words, the representative of the mainstream variety, adjust the level of recent and future performance, will determine the nature of the current round of adjustment.

For the robust investor, as it will for some time in the turmoil, is also a rational choice on the sidelines, patiently waiting for the time Quotes into the relatively stable, and then wait for an opportunity to intervene is more secure and more practical; but never Most small investors, can do this is not easy because in the short-term fluctuations in the opportunity to be very attractive.