Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-09-23
The beginning of the last century, Hu Shih as the representative of the New Culture Movement returned from studies in the U.S., he faced the cultural atmosphere of China at that time, wrote a famous article, "Young China's spirit." This paper introduces the three characteristics of Western science: first, focus on facts, with facts as a starting point, do not ask how to say Confucius, Plato, how to say. Second, pay attention to assumptions, facing the pre-trial of bamboo Wang has done a seven-day "investigation of things", Georgia could not see any reason to, but fell ill. Scientific most assumptions, observe things after the assumption and see whether this hypothesis could explain the observed facts. Third, pay attention to evidence, a number of assumptions being singled out one of the most shared assumptions, and to verify the facts. Without going through this layer of evidence, only be regarded as pending permit the assumption that deserve recognition for the truth.
The beginning of reading a paper on the prospects for the U.S. stock market survey, respondents are some big brokerage or asset management company CIO, a very deep impression is that most people are more optimistic this year, the trend of stocks, nearly half of the CIO that the U.S. stocks this year, can stand above the 12,000 points, only two respondents were pessimistic. Optimists, of course there are grounds for optimism, the U.S. real estate has been cooling is anyone expected, but the United States since the dot-com bubble burst, companies in the IT investment has been on enough, so the U.S. consumer might be cool but with the real estate down, but the investment is likely to rise, which will largely offset the decline in consumption; other hand, the world's second-and third-largest economy, Japan, Germany's economic growth will be better than last year; Moreover, there are Chinese and India, are in developing countries such as take-off stage, the growth rate down to get even more difficult than up, like China in the first half of this year is like that. Only now appears that investment experts seem to underestimate the difficulties, because now if you are in the United States, you definitely feel completely different with the Chinese, and now houses the United States, although the day of a price, but the direction of change was down . Some people are even eager to get rid of you will get a newly renovated kitchen plus a car, still not popular. The U.S. stock market in the first 4 months of this year's performance has been basically the same as with the expectations of the mainstream, but then began to gradually become distant. Maybe this year, experts predict that the majority of investment is not quasi-year. (Send
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If the investment is also a science, perhaps the most unambiguous scientific, because any errors will be immediately assumed a direct loss. Hawking's big bang theory, although the profound, but the evidence is not as good as the stock market so quickly. U.S. investors did not expect the real estate decline in the beginning of the momentum will be so fast, but also did not expect oil prices will have risen so high, so their income is very bad. At this time last year, investors do not generally think that this year China's corporate profits will decline, but the end of the Center Daily News revealed last week, the data show net profit last year rose nearly 8% over the same period, coupled with reform of the price of shares of about 25% of the proceeds as a result of the net assets yield rate The rise brought up the valuation of the stock market's gains should be about 40%, which is consistent with the actual results. Therefore, to judge the market prospects for next year should the facts, rather than the big bull market like the concept of utmost importance. If the global economy is not a hard landing, the possibility of a turnaround in the domestic economy was not large, so the stock market next year is likely to remain a good year, but this year's earnings would be lower than 25%.
