Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-04-16
The investment value of the automobile industry depends on government policies, consumer demand and industry competition three factors. After considering various factors, we give the automotive industry "neutral" investment rating.
According to our projections, growth in car sales in 2005 expected to be approximately 19%, prices fell about 9%. In such circumstances, the industry level of profitability in 2005 will be slightly lower than the second half of 2004, estimated full-year profit than in the automotive industry in 2004 decreased by about 40%. Among them, Automotive vehicle manufacturing industry will decline in 2004, on the basis of 22%, then decreased by about 45%.
Industry prospects
From the industry background, China's auto industry has formed a relatively solid foundation for development has become the main industries driving economic growth, the product structure, rationalize the industrial structure was further optimized with a foundation. China's auto market has enough potential for sustainable development, the market has been from the main consumer group purchasing, public funds mainly from private car to purchase. Private car ownership ratio of total holdings from "95" at the end less than 40% to nearly 60%.
As the automotive market demand and maintain volume growth, social motorization level will be continuously improved. China's current level of motorization is 24 / thousands of people, far below the world average level (the world average of 135 / thousand). "Eleventh Five-Year" period, China's auto market demand and maintain capacity will continue to grow.
Industrial policy tightening
Automotive industry, "Eleventh Five-Year" period of development and investment value of course, be subject to "Eleventh Five-Year" plan and related policies significant. Since 2004, promulgated a new version of the auto industry policy, established in 2010 prior to the policy of the automotive industry trends and development. Based on the current understanding of the situation, "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" will be basically in accordance with the formulation of industrial policy, that there is no change in principle. From the major direction of view, auto industry policy and the automotive industry, "Eleventh Five-Year" period of the specific measures will be conducive to maintenance of existing industry, automobile manufacturers interests.
However, micro-level, the various measures on the industry and the profitability of all listed companies, the impact will depend on the specific policy measures and their implementation situation. In our view, from a practical implementation point of view, the automobile industry tightening policy trends, mainly in the following areas: energy conservation, environmental protection, security has become the focus; consumption tax changes to improve the level of car taxes and fees; fuel tax will be introduced in due course; fuel consumption value of the standard increase; parking fees, costs incurred in the process of using up; buying process difficult for the tax adjustment to reduce purchasing costs.
Excess capacity remains
At present, China's auto industry has been the vehicle production capacity of about 8 million / year, with production capacity of 2.2 million under construction, completed, production capacity will reach 10.2 million / year. The car production and sales in 2004, only about 5 million. In addition, local investment enthusiasm remains undiminished, the scale of the planned investment is expected to reach 10 million. The total amount of the major business plan together reached 17 million, of which 12 million cars.
Judging from the current master of the major automotive group "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" situation, their overall automobile market on the judgments does not differ greatly, all believe that demand for cars will continue to grow the market in 2010 sales are expected in the 800-1000 million units of the Inter. Industry departments, the major business-to-market demand forecasts and we expect results similar to the 2010 demand target 800-1,000 million. Therefore, if investment can not be effectively restricted, "Eleventh Five-Year" period the automotive industry overcapacity situation, there is likely to deteriorate further.
Hard to avoid price cuts
Basic type of domestic passenger cars in 2005 and 2004 compared to the price index should be stable, but should also be noted that after the second quarter of this year, a slight downward trend, but decreased significantly since the third quarter, has begun to enter the rapidly falling prices period. We believe that the new car market and the inventory gradually increasing the pressure, by the end of the terminal selling price will continue to face enormous pressure, especially in areas of intermediate and high-class cars.
We believe that next year, the high-level car market is still quiet, Toyota's tremendous impact on pricing and product strategy. Toyota Reiz Toyota's pricing reflects the positive attitude of the Chinese market, the corresponding will be 200,000 yuan or so high-class cars market price system have a significant impact. We expect that Toyota will be coming through the NBC (8-14 million), Corolla (12-18 million), Caramel (17-25 million), Reiz (20-30 million), crown (27-40 million yuan) to form a relatively complete product mix and competitive price system. In this under the influence of high-class cars pricing center in the coming year, a significant down time, the market competition will become intense, the relevant performance of listed companies will be challenged.
The two major sub-sectors concerned about the stock
Although we have next year's auto industry as a whole to determine poor, but the economy and listed companies based on industry investment value analysis, we give large and medium sized passenger car sub-sector "strong in the big city," investment rating; while the heavy-duty trucks from the bottom is expected to gradually take a good The rating for "Strong in the big city."
Zhengzhou Yutong Bus (600,066 market, information, advice, more): The company this year, mainly from the increase in the performance of the business structure changes. Company's products led to the improvement of grade bicycle sales price increases, and thus a slight decline in the production and sales remain steady growth in core revenues. We expect the company's future performance is still expected to continue to improve, mainly because sales volume has increased steadily; model grades improved steadily; gross margin stable at the level of 16-18%; cost rate will steadily decrease during the period; income tax rate reduction.
Stronger ability to expand our business and international business development speed is very fast, the level of future profits have great room for improvement, a reasonable price-earnings ratio should be 13-15 times the level of the corresponding shares of 8.9-10.4 billion. To maintain the company a "buy" investment rating.
G JAC (600,418 market, information, advice, more): 2005 performance of the company's growth is mainly from sales of commercial vehicles Refine increasing and costs. 2005 January to September, the company sold 114,712 cars and chassis, an increase of 20.4%. Among them, refine business car 23917, an increase of 31%; light trucks 74455 units, up 24%; bus chassis 16038, down 5%.
Stronger ability to expand our business, future profit level will remain stable, reasonable level of price-earnings ratio should be about 10 times, the corresponding share price of 5.4 yuan. Company's valuation with larger space and better prospects for future development, maintaining a "buy" investment rating.
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