Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-02-07
Performed dismally in 2005, many small cement companies unforgettable, while the policy environment in 2006 to further "Award for superior limit inferior." Accordingly, bigger and stronger through mergers and acquisitions to strengthen anti-risk ability is the consensus of cement companies.
Policy will be further "Award superior limit bad"
2006 is the implementation of the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" for the first year. To implement the "energy saving" basic national policy to build a circular economy, "Eleventh Five-Year" plan clearly stated: unit GDP energy consumption than the "15" end to reduce about 20%, and building materials industry as the focus of the pilot to carry out recycling economy industry.
The cement industry in 2006 the policy environment will be further "award superior limit inferior": new dry process cement production line replacement shaft kiln, wet kiln and other backward cement production lines will further increase the strength of cement companies in the waste heat power generation system of policy support will increase. The degree of polarization within the cement industry will be expanded, the strong stronger and the weak weaker Matthew will be more apparent.
Demand growth will decline in a variety of factors working together, in 2005 China's total fixed asset investment will complete the 8.8 trillion yuan, up 25.4% compared to 2004 fell by 0.2 percentage points slightly. One real estate investment grew 21.5%, down 6.6 percentage points over the previous year.
In 2006, if the policy can maintain stability and connectivity, the investment will show a steady Qujiang growth. Investment in the whole year is expected to society as a whole increased by 20%, compared with 5.3 percentage points lower in 2005. Among them, real estate investment will continue to maintain steady growth, is expected to grow 20.5% over the same period last year dropped 1 percentage point. Including exports, in 2006, the cement demand growth will be around 8.2%, slightly lower than the 8.25% increase in 2005, 2005, the national cement volume is expected to reach 1.134 billion tons.
By the State macro-control, fall and early growth of cement demand for new cement production capacity of the impact of rapid growth, the cement investment continued to decline. Is expected in 2006 a new dry-process cement production lines will reach 50 or so, with production capacity 40 million tons, to the end of 2006, the National cement production capacity by up to 13.7 million tons. In which the proportion of new dry cement production to 40% from 2005 to 2006 45%.
Cement prices will continue to maintain low for a slight fluctuation trend. Oversupply of cement industry as a whole, significant excess capacity, the demand slowdown is still difficult for a substantial increase in cement prices of the main reason.
Profitability will increase for the implementation of "energy saving" basic national policy, the state will introduce policies to guide cement enterprises reduce business energy consumption, reduce production costs and directly increase corporate profits.
Accordance with the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" unit of GDP energy consumption than the "15" end to reduce about 20% of the requirements, "Eleventh Five-Year" average annual saving of about 4%. At present the cost of cement production accounts for more than 60% coal, in coal, electricity prices remain unchanged under the conditions of the 2004 data, estimates: if the saving target to achieve 4%, the cement industry in the 46-year cost savings billion yuan, total profit of cement industry is expected to increase 33.46%. However, the actual situation may not reach this level, because to achieve a 4% saving goals, companies need to increase certain inputs; As people's awareness of environmental protection, corporate environmental cost will be increased accordingly. Although some increase in the cost of expenditures, since the cement industry in 2005 a low base level of profitability, therefore, increase in 2006 earnings should be expected to.
Despite the urgent need to improve industry concentration degree of China's large-scale cement production capacity of the Group expanded rapidly, the production concentration increased significantly, but the average size of the cement industry is still relatively small.
2004 medium and large cement enterprises in China 1238, cement output of 600 million tons, with an average size of 480,000 tons. National Cement Company 5042, cement output of 970 million tons, with an average size of less than 20 million tons. Cement companies in foreign countries, the average size of 90 million tons, the United States an average of 83 million tons. Maritime Asia more developed countries the average large-scale cement enterprises, such as Japan, an average of more than 200 million tons, more than 400 million tons of South Korea, Thailand, for more than 500 million tons.
Thus, the expansion, particularly in the restructuring through mergers and acquisitions to expand the scale of China's cement industry to improve the market competitiveness of the important part.
Mergers and acquisitions "show" will continue to be staged to increase foreign cement giant mergers and acquisitions of domestic cement enterprises efforts. To lose ground in the domestic cement market, the pace has penetrated into the listed company level.
May 12, 2005, Huaxin Cement (600,801 market, information, advice, more) the second largest shareholder HOLCHI N B. V. Huaxin Cement holdings of B shares 8,761,300 shares, holdings, after HOLCHI N B. V. Huaxin Cement held B shares accounted for the proportion of the total shares from 23.44% to 26.11%; September 16, Jidong Cement (000401 market, information, advice, more) board of directors approved the German sea - Goldberg Cement Company Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Heidelberg (Heidel b e r g) Cement Holdings Hong Kong Limited sale of the company held by the Fufeng Jidong Cement Co., Ltd. 45.77% of the shares and Jidong Cement Co., Ltd. Jing Yang 40% of the shares; November 15, the world's second-largest cement companies acquired by France's Lafarge, Sichuan pairs of horses (000,935 market, information, advice, more). This series of mergers and acquisitions indicates that the operation of: foreign investment in the domestic cement market, the pace began to accelerate.
In 2006 the structural adjustment of cement industry will provide in-depth development, access to the merger and reorganization phase. On the one hand, the domestic cement market leading business-to-target medium and small cement companies around the various levels of "joint" with a view to further develop economies of scale; the other hand, foreign giants in the domestic cement market of cement a positive distribution anchorage in domestic cement enterprises will further accelerate the pace of mergers, to increase the penetration of the domestic cement industry.
Changing breeds vitality If we say that in 2005 the cement industry is a "trials and hardships," the year, then 2006 will usher in a "merger and reorganization of years."
In this context, two types of cement listed companies worth noting: one is the industry or regional leading enterprises, economies of scale obvious; a category is the theme of restructuring the acquisition of enterprises, enterprise value is expected to be raised.
According to the above criteria, the cement concern in 2006 listed companies including: Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, Jidong Cement, Asia Pacific Group and the Tianshan Mountains shares.
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