Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-01-21
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: Is the bull market can go far? To answer this question, we should look at the development of the major forces driving the bull market can continue long, bearing the bull market to the external environment of compliance with the bull market development needs. Yesterday when we have already analyzed the articles to promote the development of a major bull market forces, and today's article is to explore exactly how long the driving force of continuity.
Is the bull market can go far? To answer this question, we should look at the development of the major forces driving the bull market can continue long, bearing the bull market to the external environment of compliance with the bull market development needs. Yesterday when we have already analyzed the articles to promote the development of a major bull market forces, and today's article is to explore exactly how long the driving force of continuity.
1 to promote the bull market has only just started the main engine
This column that the exogenous driving force from the point of view, the assets into the listed company to promote the quality of assets increase by leaps and bounds as well as the driving force of industrial upgrading and also has a great tap potentials and promote the bull market has only just started the main engine.
1, asset injection
First, we believe that as a major factor in promoting the stock market, a great potential asset injection. Currently moving forward with the development of the assets into the Quotes main force is the central enterprise asset injection, then how many assets can be injected into the central enterprises do? Statistics show that at present the central enterprises and public assets of unlisted assets, compared to 6:1, in which unlisted assets, many of them are quality assets, such as coal, electricity, etc. Most of the assets were not in the high-quality listed companies in the Group's shareholders. 6:1 This is what the concept, according to the most simple algorithms, price-earnings ratio to maintain the current level, then this part of the stocks at least six times more room to rise.
It can be said in order to create out of the assets into the Central Army, will be set-ting the main backbone of the development of long-term bull market.
2, industrial upgrading
From Japan and Taiwan, the development experience of view, due to factors that promote the appreciation of the currency tend to reshape the industrial structure to upgrade their industrial structure, and a huge time span. If, according to Japanese statistics show that appreciation in the currency during the period of its light and heavy industry occurred within a decade the proportion of persistent changes, and the machinery industry, automobile, fine chemical industry has begun to rise. Before the beginning of the appreciation from the appreciation of the basically finished, this part of the industry's share of Japan's gross national product ratio of a fundamental change took place. The rise of Taiwan's electronics industry is also a place in the same context, and to build up in the capital markets continue to rise a hundredfold increase in electronics stocks, TSMC, and so on, the driving force of industrial upgrading should be said is staggering.
In China during the period of the currency appreciation, it would in such a situation arise. From the current point of view, except machinery manufacturing Listed companies have been funding full attention outside the mainstream, industrial upgrading, and no large-scale emergence of themes, which means that within this range is also great potential for investment potential. Of course, because the non-economic background, we can not simply copy the Japan and Taiwan and other places situation. However, because of the escalation of this structure relies heavily on the promotion of national policy, we can change the state's industrial policy, to find one of the spider silk ant tracks.
Second, long bull carrying more objective needs of economic development,
As the saying goes, do not miss the love of the world, the management focus on the stock market is also true. We believe that top management stock split share structure reform is not the ultimate goal of rehabilitation, but through the root of the problem to restore the resource allocation function of capital markets in order to undertake a large number of state-owned asset securitization, through the capital market to advance the corporate governance reform, thus boosting China Economic development is the management of split share structure reform to the fundamental objective. From this perspective, the need for a long-term bull market to digest these goals.
There are still a large number of large state-owned enterprises such as China Mobile, China Construction Bank to wait for return, but also a large number of central enterprises to wait for the assets injected into the listed companies, not to mention excess liquidity needs of an increasingly grim situation is also with the great development of capital markets to digestion, this decision is bound to the current management's careful care of the long-term bull market. From the major shareholders and the interests of listed companies, executives point of view of its holdings of non-tradable shares, and before the completion of such equity-based incentives are unlikely to be a listed company's potential release of lazy to do, it also decided to micro-level of listed companies will also have the the continued growth potential.
So, the big story of China's stock market recovery is far from finished.
Third, the policy affecting the key factor in the development of a long cattle
However, the impact of the continuing uncertainties in the long-term bull market is still large, the main policy of the furnace if mishandled, long-term bull market may be aborted at any time.
On the one hand, the policy side, if supervision is obviously easier to encourage speculation. And, as mentioned in previous articles in this section, the prevalence of speculative stock market crash will be the catalyst for quick success of the bull market is unlikely to last long; another aspect, excessive administrative intervention in the market are apparently easy to mark the city branded the policy, tend to distort the internal market laws of development, while the confidence of investors would also constitute a significant blow.
It should be said, in the new environment, how to grasp the intensity of the stock market policy, regulation and control, and methods, will be the management will have to face major problems. If this is mishandled, then the sustainability of the bull market may be cause for suspicion.
In general, to answer, how far will the bull market of the problem, not only can only see the bull market to promote the sustainability of the development of internal factors, need to look at the external environment, especially in the new environment policy, how to master the the furnace, which will determine the capacity of the sustainable development of the bull market.
