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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Last week, Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share market hit a five-year high, the Shanghai index 1900 points, washed once, though closed in 1900 under still up 17 points the previous week. Stock abnormal differentiation evident in the cities of A shares with only 170 stocks rose over the same period in the Shanghai Composite weeks, while 500 stocks fell more than 5% of weeks. We believe that the stock index up by the strong performance of listed companies go beyond the expected growth is, and this power is currently still exists, but the profit of structural imbalance lead to "28 phenomenon" in the short term will not disappear, the valuation of the revolutionary blue-chip heavyweight push index up, while ignoring a large number of species to adjust the valuation is too high.
Performance is expected to push up index
In late August, the Shanghai index to adjust to get rid of reintegration l passers-by, it is important drivers of listed companies is in the third quarter exceeded market expectations of profits growth: a quarter of full year net profit of listed companies is still down 12%, the mid-rise to 5.6%, the first three quarters rose to an alarming 23%, only the third quarter increased by more than 40%, growth of 9%. The medium-term earnings growth for listed companies, the market will be its non-recurring gains and losses attributable to the substantial growth in its earnings growth continued to remain skeptical. But with the publication of financial data in the third quarter, the market performance of listed companies generally considered higher quarterly basis the trend has been basically clear, particularly as the share reform of the institutional change triggered by reduced profit leakage, while a large number of high quality assets into the listed continuous companies, improved corporate profitability, the former three quarters of all the listed company's net capital gains rates were 2.05%, 2.99%, 3.01%, while the first three quarters of last year were 2.6%, 2.57%, 2.1%, year on year increase -- 21.15%, 16.34%, 43.3%. This shows that a quarter of the profitability of listed companies, there was an upside reversal, and this trend can be strengthened in the third quarter to fourth-quarter results strong market growth is likely to continue to accelerate expectations.
Share reform brings another effect, namely, A-share market volatility and outside the mature markets are becoming increasingly close. Outside the mature stock market, the listed company's profit growth is expected to be propelling the stock internal momentum of the last century 90's, the U.S. Dow Jones index started 3000 and experienced 10-year bull market rose to 11900 points, the average price-earnings ratio is also only by the initial 14 times to 22 times the same period, 260% profit growth of listed companies provide a stream of the Dow rising momentum. With three-quarter financial data, statistics on the A-share market price-earnings ratio of 21.11 times price-earnings ratio of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, 17.69 times the horizontal comparison of basic and reasonable valuation levels, especially in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index valuation levels and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, the United States Road Jones index rather, we expect that this year growth in full-year results of listed companies are expected to reach 30%, with three quarterly data is only implicit in the calculation of the price-earnings ratio of listed companies 23% earnings growth, assuming that the current A-share market and reasonable price-earnings ratio, A-share index are still 7% increase, that is, the Shanghai index is expected to see the 2000 Points. Thus, while the current round of increases has lasted for 13 weeks, in order to continue to rise since July last year, the longest stage, but the expected rise in profit based on the theme of nature is different from the increase in the strength of its continuing potential than investors expected, on the Week in H-shares driven by the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, China Enterprises Index hit a record high, will be a spur to play the role of A-share market.
"28 phenomenon" in the short-term difficulty disappears
Admittedly, last week's A-share market, "28 phenomenon" is particularly evident, all A shares fell 3.28% on average, to the Commission the 22 industry categories, only one industry, finance and insurance industry, the extractive industries were up 4.63%, 1% , while the textile and garment, information technology, pharmaceutical and biological products, other manufacturing industries recorded a decrease of more than 4%, which indicates that the index rise is driven by a small number of heavyweights, and most of the stock being marginalized. Objectively speaking, "the phenomenon of 28 "has a reasonable, although the third quarter of A-share listed company's overall earnings growth exceeded expectations, but the profit structure of the unbalanced nature of deposit to clear, steel, electric power, transportation and infrastructure sector growth was particularly notable, thus catalytic iron and steel shares, Transportation stocks rose, while the textile, medicine, biotechnology and other industries slow earnings growth, valuation levels are significantly high, sharp rise in the first half of the machine manufacturing industry, due to the lack of earnings surprise and valuation of the lack of results further support. Textiles and clothing, pharmaceutical and biological products, other manufacturing price-earnings ratio levels were 33.2 times, 33.12 times, 35.33 times higher than the market average, triggered the return of valuation.
Although the Shanghai index is based on all Shanghai-listed company's total market capitalization weighted come, but as the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China listed on the Shanghai Composite Index increasing concentration of the weight distribution, the index heavyweights, as the increasingly volatile, "face." In today's commercial banks, Bank of China, Sinopec, China Merchants Bank, Shanghai stock market's top 10 heavyweights in the Shanghai index's weighting as much as 50%, while the majority of heavyweight overall valuation is still reasonable, in addition to the China Petrochemical A share price is higher than H shares, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, China Merchants Bank A shares have different degrees lower than the H shares, A shares of China Merchants Bank last week, although weeks or up to 14.69%, but H shares are still up 14.33 percent discount, only the previous week reduced by two percentage points, in the H shares of traction, the market will continue to flock to adequate funding and reasonable valuations and has a stable growth of the blue chips, "28 phenomenon" is still difficult to change the index on the beautiful movements and operation of the loss will still be troubled by Most investors.
In the short term, as represented by the value of steel-stock valuations, "depression" has been initially filled, with its financial and real estate stocks have been represented by the growth of wind and water, while the recently announced some of the data will further enhance the appreciation of the renminbi is expected to become a financial and real estate stocks up as a catalyst.
