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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
The stock market is a magic to our survival, stop. 2, fund management. 3, to establish their own trading system for
Price - bid
The stock market the most popular, most used language is sale prices. Buyers and sellers results of the dialogue - determines the transaction price of everything! Bid prices for the location and magnitude in turn depends on domestic and international economic, political, social factors and psychological factors both buyers and sellers. The impact of these related intertwined together formed the role of making the stock's closing price in accordance with the time series forward on the formation of the price rise, fall trend. In today's stock market price movements due to the different reference materials, arising from four major categories of prediction methods: fundamental analysis, technical analysis, academic analysis flow method, psychological analysis. (This article only discuss the technical analysis method)
In general, investors are faced with the same information and data, have different priorities and a significant bias, the conclusion will naturally have the nature of the differences in the timing and buy the stock price are different. They make decisions before the right to judge based on the focus is very different. Most of the transaction price is to understand the past and the future relationship between the transaction price, hoping to stand is now history, and thus see the future through its decision-making goal is to bid on the future trend projections or future transaction price forecast. Therefore, the technical analysis to determine the basis of those focused on the last transaction price and the future study of the relationship between the transaction price. Its focus is the actual market price trends, trying to find time to buy (or sell) the best period for stocks.
The last traded price and transaction price of the future, and there is no direct correlation. Has a long experience of the operator in practice is very easy to find, even if the "history to repeat itself," its "again" when the price scale, time scale, volume (position) and scale characteristics of the full description of the price parameters, and which history reference to the object in most cases, it was very different. Therefore, the price in the past and the future of this relationship does not directly identify the relationship between the investment value is quite difficult. Investors are at this time are often very easy to unconsciously give full play to its own "initiative" so that future price trends or future price forecast to bring strong subjective color, hoping to buy the stock movements and repetition of the previous Niugu.
� The nature of stock prices
1. The liquidity of the stock transaction price and volatility
The stock price run from a superficial point of view, there are two notable features (of course, there are other features), first, liquidity, The second is volatility. Market liquidity refers to each particular time and the corresponding price, ease of transactions, a high degree of liquidity in the market liquidity, which means there is still no low range of obstacles to the flow of liquidity, turnover is very easy and convenient. Deal mean? Turnover means that buyers and sellers to form a complete opposite value judgments. Therefore, the easier the more transaction-intensive, the higher the mobility of buyers and sellers to judge the value opposite the higher the degree of confrontation, which value judgments more difficult. Market volatility is the price at each particular time of the jump has the characteristics of turbulence.
2. A high degree of randomness of transaction price
Over the years, a large number of sophisticated mathematical and statistical means to repeatedly test the stock price volatility characteristics of irrefutable evidence that the price volatility characteristics of a high degree of randomness. A high degree of randomness is not entirely random, a high degree of randomness in price fluctuations in the surface of the following is still a lot of hidden regularity of features, just trying to identification lies in the longer period of time have a stable operation of the value of regularity is characterized by very difficult.
Price fluctuations of randomness and regularity, is a transaction relating to the performance of specific operational issues on a practical level, but also a trading strategy, trading philosophy associated theoretical level problems. Modern portfolio theorists, Shi Zhanpai and various analytical schools of the existence of price volatility is consistent with this understanding randomness, the difference lies in the different levels of understanding of randomness, randomness and regularity is the right understanding of the relationship between the different only.
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As investors have knowledge of the securities market capacity continues to increase, the price fluctuation of the screening, extraction capacity and the early market has been quite different, the market in order to safeguard their own survival, degree of randomness of price fluctuations is also increasing, so the modern securities and futures markets have become increasingly showing characteristics of a high degree of randomness. The most representative is the market "cheat line", and "cheating quantity" phenomenon, that is, the chart traps occur.For the randomness and regularity of the relationship between the 20th century, 80 years before analysts and investors tend to think that between randomness and regularity of fracture, and there is no mutual interdependence. Excluding the price as long as the random phenomenon, the rest is the law of price fluctuations. Such as traditional technical analysis of the moving average theory is the recognition that representative.
Of modern analytical science reveals: Price is the appearance of random motion under the decisive disorder is a random appearance, no implicit in the law of orderly disorder arising from the organization, resulting in the law. A high degree of randomness of price fluctuations, price fluctuations in the establishment and existence of laws based on the premise, the price of a high degree of randomness through a large number of loitering and disorderly movements automatically give birth to real estate organizations, to produce an orderly manner, thus showing the law. A level fluctuation of the prices observed at a higher level is a kind of disorder, not a constant and orderly, regular way to realize is random, this way, but also to generate at a higher level a new order, the new rule. This regularity is easy to imagine people like the orderly sinusoidal movement, in the peaks and troughs, the future direction of prices is clearly pointed it out - this is a misunderstanding. The modern analytical science reveals the relationship between randomness and regularity, mainly means: the laws could only partially contain the price information on the direction of future trends, regularity, most of it is revealed by the structural characteristics of price fluctuations .
Since price fluctuations are highly stochastic characteristics, then such a high degree of randomness What does it mean for shareholders? The price of a high degree of randomness not only means that any person from the local terms are likely to profit from short term, but more importantly, means that any person from the overall situation in the long run in terms of the probability of winning is very low. Therefore, the shareholders are in the stock market if they want to be able to win long-term stability, we must address how successfully a high degree of randomness in price fluctuations in the search to non-random, that part of regularity, and its application-level problems. At the same time must also address the price volatility at different levels of random part of the right to buy the negative impact of the decision-making problems. That is the focus of this article to talk about: stock transaction.
3. The investment bond market transactions, is a "first negative game" process, that is, a loss of investment transactions has not only lost profits to a party, but both sides should pay all costs of the trading process. So, not only in the securities practitioners in this industry relies on the securities winner the loser to feed, while the securities service industry employees, and fundamentally set by the losers to feed. If the loss side to feed, including all securities, including its own employees, then the losers, not only from the quantity and the amount of money to be far more than the winner, in order to maintain its own continuity and survival of the securities market. We can infer from the main movement direction of the market, it must be the majority of investors, the most unbearable psychological orientation would also be contrary to the majority of investors, the most unexpected direction. The market certainly will use every means to prove that the majority of investors and most of the funds invested in most of the time is wrong, the market itself to survive one of the prerequisites is that most of the investment decision-making errors. This "all means" is the Western economic theory, the so-called "invisible hand" is China's securities market in the so-called "super-main."
� The trend of stock prices
Dow Theory will be price fluctuations at three levels: primary (original) trend, the secondary (reverse, repeatedly) trend, daily (short term) fluctuations: the main trends in the stock market is the main basis for profit participants, secondary trends and daily stock market volatility is the basis for the existence and functioning. Secondary trends in major markets function is to cover the major trends in the market toward the true intentions of the majority of people are not aware of it, and to most of the time most people were misled by sub-trend to make the wrong decisions. The daily fluctuations in the main function is to make the operation profitable markets look very easy to induce another batch of investors to continue to inject liquidity into the market in order to ensure market continuity and eternity. Secondary movement and daily fluctuations in concrete terms, that is, a large amount of market illusion of a way that investors erroneously admitted, while investors the right approach to make the investment after the departure of people wrong. Secondary trends in the main trends and daily fluctuations in hidden luring capital into the market of the market functions, from the fundamental guarantee for only a few people to become winners, ultimately the "risk" characteristics of the securities market for the rules of the game have been maintained.
å›? Stock price fluctuation of the concept of
Volatility, the law sometimes, and sometimes there is no law there is stochastic volatility with non-randomness of a double feature. The so-called randomness refers to the data, no memory, that is, past data does not constitute a basis for future projections of data. Price volatility characteristics of a high degree of randomness of this phenomenon has already been confirmed by investment theorists. It is precisely because the implied volatility in the stochastic component makes the enduring allure of the stock market. We investigate any of the casual investor transactions, you will find almost all the investors who have had the experience of profitability, but also to a small number of investors, the cost of such a profitable addition to bear the risk of capital losses, the there is no pay, a phenomenon in some way contributed to the people something for nothing mentality.
On the contrary, with the random opposite side, the share price volatility still has non-random characteristics. The non-randomness is the rule for the purposes of that market has a linear nature, causes and results of the relationship between the inevitable; according to the reasons for the strength and direction, predictable results. In other words, investors can, based on market price fluctuations over the past analysis of patterns of drawn on the future market price movement patterns that have statistical reliability expectations. Stock price fluctuations in the presence of non-random features, but also has been proven investment theory circles. Often have only a non-random features of the characteristics of instability, that is, when many investors found the existence of a non-random characteristics, the characteristics of the general tend to disappear over time, lengthen. We are in the secondary market often see this phenomenon: When a stock from a long-term bottom, its stock price down a long-term rising trend line of slow, regular pick-up, finally appears to accelerate gains, but this speed up The trend will not last long, and soon it will turn around down the stock price, or sideways at a high level shock; a certain period of time, the market rose more orderly and disciplined in accordance with a fixed cycle operation, such as the low and the low period of time often there for 19 months. But as time longer, we will find the number of cycles shift has occurred, the market rose again in accordance with the majority of people do not know about another new cycle of operation. The implied volatility in the stock market there is a non-random component is another source of temptation. Since the existence of this non-random, making a number of rational investors to buy stocks is different from the feeling that the lottery or gambling, so they bet more energy and time investment analysis techniques, such as the classical study of the theory and application of potential investment the excavation and development of analytical techniques, in order to try to grasp the law of where the stock price volatility.
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In short, there is stochastic volatility component, but also non-random component, in which randomness is characterized by the essential characteristic of volatility. This randomness and non-random between the two are not mutually separated, but with fluctuations in stock prices throughout the process. At a particular period of time, only one between the two dominant, this dominance is constantly changing, so has caused volatility sometimes orderly, sometimes disorder; and sometimes measurable and sometimes unpredictable.Most of our investors so pervasive feeling that the more you try to become more intelligent, more difficult to profit in the market; you intend to do this like short-term speculation, because of the quilt helpless to do long-term investment. Whether you plan how to develop the best possible deal in the end, the market will always deviate from your expectations, and even contrary to your expectations. In short, the market seems to always maintain a principle - "The majority of investors are wrong most of the time," this principle. Well, most people mistake and stock price volatility of the intrinsic link between the stochastic characteristics of it? Stock market volatility there is randomness is characterized by the main reason most people go wrong. Because there is stochastic volatility characteristics, therefore, the stock in the secondary market, "Quinella" event does not have a "necessity", which can only be a "small probability" event. "Small probability" has determined that the ultimate winner in the market can only be a few. The winners of these minority groups, mostly concentrated in the professional investors, because they can try to avoid volatility in the stochastic component, and find a way to capture the non-random part, which can be made on the basis of probability and statistics with a "big probability" event judgments and decisions. But that does not mean that these experts can Changsheng undefeated, often an important turning point in the market, the experts will also have the tendency of the extreme result of market psychology and eventually become the majority of people commit errors. China's network of technology stocks early last year, market, due to extreme market sentiment at that time of infection, the Fund Network Technology stocks quickly Jiancang massive, short-term high prices for these stocks, the bubble component is too large, because when the retail price to follow the trend set at a high level scarce , the Fund Awkwardness of votes at a high level can not be successfully implemented, and ultimately to enable certain institutional investors into the market, "most people" is making quilt.
This shows that the randomness of stock price volatility due to fluctuations in the psychology of market participants. In other words, the psychological factors determine the existence of randomness. Obviously, the market itself is a synthesis of all the traders, while the volatility is the investor's psychology by the force fluctuations triggered.
As the price of any investment earnings are derived from the positive movement along the direction of investment, any investment losses are derived from the price movement along the reverse direction of investment, so investors naturally will be most concerned about the direction of movement of the price, determining the price trend investors would naturally become the primary analysis of the activities of homework. Most investment techniques described in books mainly focus on analyzing trends in a variety of analytical methods, but also to a certain extent reinforced investors "direction" awareness, "trend" consciousness. As the number of people involved in the market, funds, methods wrong most of the representatives of the inherent requirements of market orientation to the direction or trend identified as the focus of the majority of people judged the habit of behavior is necessarily inefficient. Therefore:
A: the market will use every means to prove that the popular view is wrong.
B: the market will use all means to prove popular methods of operation is wrong.
C: the basic principle of supply and demand based on the traditional economic theory, developed in the use of basic analytical methods popular way in the stock market is inefficient.
D: the use of technical analysis methods popular approach (open indicators, formulas) in the securities and futures market is inefficient.
� The normal transaction price fluctuations and transaction
Most of the time bid is a certain degree of volatility shocks, and all belong to a normal distribution, like a lake water surface ripple. This case, the trading of securities by the eating of rice controlled by the professional bodies, in a fairly long period of time are held by the same amount of a security sub-species, high throw to pick up the difference to earn a profit. To a certain day, a substantial transaction price (ie rise), breaking the quiet space, volume and other conditions in effective cooperation with identifying trends, to start a rising market, is what we often talk about the involvement of point with large Niugu . Also in the bid prices tend to sell when flat, indeed certain to win the Road.
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