Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-05-13
Since August 8 has been slowly rising stocks in hesitation, unknowingly recovered a 30-day moving average, moving average systems have been formed long arrangement. Obviously, the current rise in the process of adjustment has been not merely considered to be the rebound, but a fresh upside Quotes. However, we believe that this round in July 2005 of the stock market has come since the end of the upside is being launched this round of the big move will be the last wave, and the space is not large investors to participate should remain sober-minded.
The short-term upward trend has been confirmed
Recently been tightening macro-control of the market environment, the stock slowly correction tape is not only back to the top of the key short-term moving average, also returned five weeks, 10 weeks on average, with a current K-line K-line and weeks to form once again long array. The past two months of turmoil, 4,5 speed up the process leading to the month of excessive deviation from the rate of on-line to be repaired, the Shanghai index has now returned to pin down because they have a strong effect in May near the average. Clearly, the current day, week, month moving average systems support a new Shenglang.
From a technical index analysis, the recent broad market has broken through the line of rail BOLL; weeks down the state from the starting line up KDJ U-turn; weeks RSI line up after 3 weeks soon after the formation of Jin Cha. From the hot spots of view, since the inception last July Quotes, real estate section is always ahead of the broader market, while the recent trend in the real estate section significantly outpaced the market, leading shares yesterday, G Vanke A had returned to previous high points, while the G Merchants (quotes, information) has hit a new high. These also indicate a rise in the current process will continue for quite some time and have a certain intensity.
We believe that, after two to raise the deposit reserve ratio and the recent rate hike, it is expected this year, at least in the next two months will not continue to produce a new macro-control policy. In addition, the semi-annual disclosure of the forthcoming completion of the stock market will soon usher in a period of time the news vacuum, which is also conducive to broad market after a period of adjustment to resume an upward trend.
Taking these various factors, we can be more sure to confirm that the recent upward trend in the formation will continue for quite some time, and may also be a gradual acceleration, with high potential.
Round of the final wave of Shenglang Quotes
From the morphological view, is already the broader market since the July 2005 round Quotes since the 5th wave, due to a larger rate of increase in three waves, so wave 5 can not expect too much, even if the high range is limited, which in the past We have already mentioned several times.
From a technical indicators, long-term trend indicates that the monthly line of MACD indicator, its green column from last July by the ever-elongation to shortening, which precisely correspond to the start of this round of big move and then start with the Quote of the green column continuously shortening, followed by elongation of the Hongzhu to keep, but this month Hongzhu started shortening, which indicates that in July last year began an upward trend coming to an end; weeks line KDJ, RSI in mid-May after the by - waves down, despite the broader market early in July has also reached a new high, at present KDJ has fallen to a weak zone, while the RSI has dropped about 50 of these weeks the top-line specifications divergence also indicates that this round of extension for a year of the stock market has reached a end.
From the volume of view, although the stocks in early July hit a new high, but volume is not high, and the ratio between the turnover in May this year, there is a big gap, and the present volume of the overall trend is still in a state of constant contraction, this the amount of departure from the trend in prices shows that the gradual outflow of incremental funds in the market, while currently on the market can maintain a high level, and continue the momentum on the red mainly from the market's inertia.
Technical indicators for the top divergence, price volume relationship of the departure, and movement patterns on the 5 waves corresponding, more clearly indicate that the current process will be from the increase in July 2005 a big move in this round since the last wave of increase in waves, but also means that once the end of this wave of upward, facing the nature of the adjustment will be different from the past year through an adjustment, it will be more than a year as a whole Quotes adjustments. Therefore, we recommend participating in the current of the stock market should keep a sober understanding, maintain a certain degree of caution.
